OVERNIGHT MONEY: Jobs numbers are a recipe for concern

FRIDAY’S BIG STORY:

Tomorrow is job day.

Meaning once again, all eyes in the economic world will be on the Labor Department in the morning as it releases its latest unemployment data for the month of April. The government has been the bearer of good news with the last few reports on unemployment, with both the rate falling and the economy adding jobs. 

However, the appetizer to tomorrow’s main course — Thursday’s release of weekly data on initial jobless claims – was not quite as satisfying as many had hoped. While economists were expecting the numbers on jobless claims to fall yet again, the government not only reported an increase, but the highest number of claims in eight months.

Couple that with ADP Employer Services reporting a weaker-than-expected bit of jobs data on Wednesday, and that’s a recipe for concern heading into Friday.

Analysts expect the Labor Department will report the economy added roughly 185,000 jobs last month, and for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 8.8 percent. But folks are also wondering whether recent figures mean tomorrow will hold further evidence of a slow but steady economic recovery or a step back after what appeared to be several steps forward.

Either way, Congress’s Joint Economic Committee, helmed by Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.), will discuss the April report at a hearing Friday morning. Keith Hall, the commissioner of the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, will testify at the monthly event.

WHAT ELSE TO WATCH FOR:

The Biden talks: All is expected to be quiet on that front for a while, after only generalities were discussed at the Blair House on Thursday. With the next meeting scheduled for Tuesday, that could be good news for the Gang of Six talks, which are still chugging along, and perhaps reflects some extra comfort after the deadline for raising the debt ceiling was pushed back to Aug. 2.

Thursday did appear to underscore, if any more underscoring was actually necessary, the gap between the two parties when it comes to taxes. 

House Speaker John Boehner’s (R-Ohio) office hammered home this afternoon that the GOP will not accept a White House proposal for a debt failsafe trigger – or a “tax trigger,” in the parlance of the Speaker’s office – that could require automatic tax increases. 

Those comments stake out very different ground from Democrats such Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada, the majority leader, and Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, a member of the Biden talks, both of whom have signaled that new tax revenue will need to play a role in the discussion.

All that said: The Senate still needs to proceed with a budget resolution. And on Friday, Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), the Budget Committee chairman, is expected to announce a date for a markup of said resolution.

Republicans on the panel have demanded three days to view the markup before the meeting.

BREAKING THURSDAY:

Along those lines … : Senate Budget Republicans also joined the fray in another way on Thursday, issuing their own analysis of President Obama’s April budget speech. A committee staff analysis declared that, compared to the Congressional Budget Office baseline, which assumes the Bush-era tax cuts for the middle class are not extended, the president’s proposal increases deficits by $2.2 trillion over 10 years. 

Still, to be fair, the House Republican budget also increases the debt when compared to the CBO baseline – a figure some have termed unrealistic, because the budget office has to assume that all policies (including the Bush tax cuts) expire on time. 

More budget!: On the other side of the partisan fence, Democrats were making the most out of comments suggesting that Republicans have little appetite to force action soon on their Medicare voucher plan. 

Rep. Dave Camp (R-Mich.), chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, intimated as much on Thursday, leading Rep. Sandy Levin (D-Mich.), the panel’s ranking member, and others to demand hearings and Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) to crow that the GOP was finally beginning to understand just how unpopular its ideas are. 

“But until they renounce their vote for it, they are still going to own it,” Schumer said.

Where’s the nearest bike share?: Crude oil closed below $100 a barrel on Thursday amid fears that U.S. consumers will drive less due to $4 a gallon gas. Crude oil has dropped 12 percent this week, but it remains unclear if gas prices will retreat from their current levels any time soon – and whether the pressure on Obama to do something on that front will dissipate. 

WHAT YOU MIGHT HAVE MISSED:

On the Money’s Thursday:

— A filibuster-proof bloc of GOP senators vows to block any CFPB nominee until the new agency’s authority is rolled back.

— While a smaller group targets NLRB nominees, post-Boeing decision.

— John Boehner stamps his ticket to (address the Economic Club of) New York. 

— House Dems blast new Republican bill on unemployment insurance.

— AARP tells Biden group to step away from the entitlements. 

— Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) gets set to jump into the 2012 budget ring. 

— A GOP representative introduces a bill to help get rid of excess federal property.

— Left-leaning group pans Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) budget. 

— House Ways and Means is coming back to tax reform.

— And polls continue to show no economic poll bounce for Obama. 

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