OVERNIGHT MONEY: First glimpse of jobs data

THURSDAY’S BIG STORY:

Following weeks of not-so-positive economic reports, the Labor Department is set to again release its weekly first-time unemployment claim data. 

Analysts expect that claims may show a slight decrease, even as the economy continues to struggle to create jobs. 

But of course: Claims grew ever-so-slightly last week, against economists’ expectations, and the report has not offered much in the way of positive news of late. 

{mosads}Following the Labor Department’s weak May jobs report, a net of only 54,000, Thursday’s report – which covers the first full week of June – will give us our first glimpse of the employment situation for this month.

Of course, other areas of the economy are not looking much better, but estimates for housing starts and building permits data for May are expected, at least by some, to be better than April.

Still, regardless of any improvement, the housing market is struggling mightily to propel its recovery. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said on Wednesday that its monthly sentiment index fell to 13 from 16 in June, well below estimates and the lowest level since September 2010.

Readings below 50 mean more builders view market conditions as poor than favorable. The last time the index was above that point? Try more than five years ago (April 2006).

“Builder confidence has waned even further as economic growth has stalled, foreclosures have continued to hit the market and the cost of building a home has risen,” David Crowe, NAHB’s chief economist, said in a statement.

“Economic growth must pick up in order for housing to gain the momentum it needs to get back on track,” he added.

WHAT ELSE TO WATCH FOR:

Come one, come all: The House Financial Services Committee is set to welcome some of the financial sector’s biggest heavyweights for a Thursday hearing on what Dodd-Frank means on a global scale. The heads of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Securities and Exchange Commission, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency will be on hand, as well as officials from the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve. 

A second panel will consist of some of Wall Street’s top executives and lobbyists, including representatives from Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase.

All will be discussing how the financial overhaul that is Dodd-Frank will function in the global marketplace. Critics and skeptics worry that the tighter restrictions will push trading activity overseas, whereas proponents contend that international standards need to fall in line with the new, improved regulatory framework.

Third time the charm?: The Biden deficit talks are slated to convene Thursday afternoon for the third straight day. After focusing Tuesday on discretionary spending, Wednesday on debt and spending caps, the group will recap progress so far and look for possible cross-cutting deals. 

The talks now are entering a crucial phase, where each side will explore trading concession for concession. Ultimately, budget experts believe the GOP will get a lot more of what it wants in terms of spending cuts for a smaller concession on taxes.

Remember the White House’s Recovery Summer?: Republicans do. Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) and four freshman GOP senators are slated to discuss the (almost) anniversary of recovery summer and how they say Democrats are hampering the economy. 

And what do you know? Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.), the House majority leader, will be joined by fellow leadership members and freshmen to hit at a similar topic. 

Trade battle heats up: The AFL-CIO will hawk its lobbying campaign against a U.S.-Colombia free trade agreement over concerns about union workers rights. 

Reps. Hank Johnson, (D-Ga.) and George Miller (D-Calif.) will join Richard Trumka, the AFL-CIO president, and Larry Cohen, the Communications Workers of America (CWA) president, to discuss violence against Colombia trade unionists on Capitol Hill. 

The event comes a day after the U.S. Chamber of Commerce announced that it’s intensifying efforts to build support for all three trade deals with Korea, Panama and Colombia and that it was “optimistic” that a deal was in the offing on Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA), an aid program to help workers displaced by trade which expired in February. 

The Obama administration has said in recent weeks that it won’t send the trade deals up to Capitol Hill for approval until there’s a TAA accord.

Two Senate Democrats reiterated Wednesday that there needs to be a standalone bill to renew TAA, although that doesn’t mean any of the trade deals will get their votes. 

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) said he “can’t imagine voting for Korea” because it will cause bigger trade deficits, a growing problem he considers at least as important as the budget deficit. 

Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.) is waiting until he gets some answers to his questions from the Obama administration before his decides how he’ll vote on Korea or the other deals. 

For their part, Public Citizen sharply criticized the Chamber’s new push in a release.

“Indeed, the Chamber’s ‘new’ website just repackages the previously-released old exports-only data featured in past Chamber ‘studies’ of the FTAs,” Public Citizen said in a release. “It’s the same misleading approach – like only counting deposits into ones bank account, not also withdrawals or the ending balance.”

Democrats are highlighting the cuts to the IRS in the bill, which they say will increase the deficit due to more tax evasion. But Rep. Jo Ann Emerson (R-Mo.), the subcommittee chairwoman, has asserted that previous increases in the IRS budget were followed by decreases in revenue.

The bill also cuts funding for federal buildings, which Democrats say will result in increased costs due to higher leases.

Speaking of federal buildings: A House Transportation Committee will be grilling SEC officials at their own hearing tomorrow – one that has a decidedly more local flair. At issue will be the fact that the SEC, gearing up for the increased workload of Dodd-Frank, leased huge amounts of office space that it ultimately decided it did not need.

The House Small Business Committee is getting into the Dodd-Frank mix as well, holding a hearing to discuss how the reforms are impacting small business lending.

And speaking of lending: The Senate Banking Committee will be chatting about credit unions tomorrow or, more precisely, how those unions are doing when it comes to lending cash to small businesses.

Quick hits:

— Bill Daley, the White House chief of staff, and Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) are scheduled to address a National Association of Manufacturers summit on Thursday.

— And Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) will discuss her approach to strengthen Social Security without an increase in taxes or a decrease in benefits.

BREAKING WEDNESDAY:

Coming around: Americans are warming up to raising the debt ceiling, a new NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll has found. 

The public has consistently opposed giving the government the authority to borrow more in recent polling. But the latest survey shows that – when told not raising the debt limit could cause a “shock to the economy” – a plurality of voters was on board with a hike.

Trouble in paradise: George Papandreou, Greece’s prime minister, said Wednesday he would reshuffle his cabinet after a day of protests of the government’s austerity measures, The New York Times reports. 

WHAT YOU MIGHT HAVE MISSED:

On the Money’s Wednesday:

— Lamar Alexander, Jeb Hensarling: On the same page on the payroll tax, but not ethanol.

— Related: Grover Norquist, Democrats claim momentum. 

— Conservatives want to hold off on the balanced budget amendment.

— Dave Camp wants gift-tax answers. 

— Obama administration announces partnership to remove investment barriers.

— Jared Polis: Democrats are going to want links to job creation in any repatriation holiday. 

— That was short: David Vitter ends his SEC holds. 

— House appropriators approve deep cuts to the administration’s clean energy priorities …

— They target CFPB funding as well …

— But do not propose touching gun control or same sex marriage in D.C. 

— Blue Dogs want agency to examine their regulations.

— Nancy Pelosi did not have a bad 2010, wealth-wise …

— Nor did Harry Reid or Mitch McConnell.