GOP plans to honor budget deal, even if Republicans win Senate

House Republican appropriators say they will follow the two-year budget deal reached after the 2013 government shutdown regardless of who wins control of the Senate in November’s elections.

Winning the Senate would give the GOP more leverage in spending fights with the administration, but GOP lawmakers have signaled they don’t want to open a new bruising war over spending by rolling back the 2013 budget deal, in which Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) agreed to spending caps for the government for the 2014 and 2015 fiscal years. 

{mosads}On the cusp of an election that could deliver them the Senate, Republicans don’t want to give themselves any self-inflicted wounds right out of the gate.

“The option before them is to clear the decks in lame-duck, get 2015 out of the way, so that they can come into next year focused on new business, not old business. That’s the argument no matter who wins the Senate,” said Sharon Parrott, a vice president at the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities.

Lawmakers are expected to introduce an omnibus-spending bill in the lame-duck session to fund the government through September 30, 2015. The short-term spending bill currently in effect expires on Dec. 11.

“The committee is working on some technical groundwork so that we can begin negotiating an Omnibus after the election. Omnibus legislation would last an entire fiscal year,” said House Appropriations Committee Spokeswoman Jennifer Hing, who indicated it would be based on the 2013 budget deal.

Keeping to the terms of the 2013 deal would likely make it easier to agree to a government-funding measure, and limit the possibility of another shutdown that damaged the GOP brand in 2013.

If Republicans win the Senate majority, it’s possible Congress could pass a short-term spending bill in December that only lasts through early next year.

That would allow the new Congress, with a GOP Senate, to put its stamp on a longer funding mechanism.

Still, outside observers say they’d be shocked to see the budget deal tossed, even with a shift in power.

“The 2015 levels are pretty well set. Even if Republicans were to take back control beginning in 2015 with the new Congress, I don’t think they’ll change the 2015 caps at all,” said W. William Hoagland, senior vice president at the Bipartisan Policy Center.

Instead, the budget showdown next year will involve a debate over spending levels for fiscal 2016, which begins next October.  

Republicans are likely to face some internal pressure to push for deeper spending cuts if the party wins control of the Senate.

Conservatives have been frustrated they have not been able to win deeper spending cuts since taking over the House after the 2010 elections.

If Republicans win back the Senate, Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), who voted against the 2013 budget deal, would become the Budget panel chairman in the upper chamber. Sessions’s office declined to comment for this story.

With Republicans in charge of both chambers, the budget panels would likely work with the spending ceilings included in 2011 legislation that introduced automatic spending cuts known as the sequester, a House aide told The Hill.

To keep spending under the ceilings in that legislation, Republicans in the House and Senate would seek spending cuts to discretionary and mandatory spending reflecting previous House budgets drawn-up by Ryan.

If Republicans have control of both chambers, they have signaled they will seek to introduce a budget reconciliation process to introduce new spending and tax cuts.

Under budget reconciliation, spending measures could be approved in the Senate on majority votes since budget measures are not subject to a Senate filibuster.

“If Republicans win the Senate, budget reconciliation is their number-one tool,” said Ben Harris, a fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution. “I do see a pretty high probability taking advantage of budget reconciliation to put in place spending cuts and tax cuts.”

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), current chairman of the House Budget Committee, recently remarked that it would be easier to pass fiscal measures through a Republican Congress because of reconciliation.

Despite that advantage, Republican leaders are likely to be wary of spending fights ahead of a 2016 election where they hope to take back the White House.

“Republicans who are seeking the presidency, it’ll probably weigh on them whether they want to be seen as politicians helping to cause a shutdown,” said Joshua Smith, a senior policy analyst at the Economic Policy Initiative.

Some cuts could also be tough for Senate Republicans to support ahead of a 2016 election in which the GOP faces a difficult map. The party will be defending 24 seats that year, including in New Hampshire, North Carolina, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.

“They’ll have some difficulty with passing the budget resolution, even with 51 votes, with some of those senators up in 2016,” Hoagland said. “It’s going to be important for Republicans, if they take back the Senate, show that they can govern. That’s the critical point here. Get out of campaign mode.”