Economy surges but voters focus elsewhere

Eight years after the depths of the worst recession in modern history, voters are finally becoming more optimistic about the national economy — and, in many cases, turning their attention to other issues.

But those who conduct polls and focus groups for both parties say that while voters are now more bullish on the national economy, they’re still bearish — or at least nervous — about their own economic position. The conversation, some say, has moved from the macro level to the micro level.

{mosads}Voters “think things have gotten a little bit better. They’re not like way better, but they’re better,” said J.B. Poersch, who runs the Senate Majority PAC, which backs Democratic candidates. “They are mindful that wages haven’t gotten better.” 

Republicans have been frustrated that they are not getting credit for a booming market and plunging unemployment rates. Democrats see an opportunity to make President Trump’s unpopular policies a focal point, though they acknowledge that the stronger economy could eventually benefit the GOP.

Virtually every economic indicator is positive today. The national unemployment rate stands at 4.1 percent, after peaking at 10 percent in October 2009. Thirteen states this year have recorded the lowest unemployment rates since the Bureau of Labor Statistics started calculating state-specific rates in 1976.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed near 24,000 points on Wednesday, more than three times its nadir on March 6, 2009. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits is near a recent low. America’s gross domestic product is growing at a 3.3 percent annual clip, thanks to robust consumer spending.

“The economic expansion is increasingly broad-based across sectors as well as across much of the global economy,” Fed chair Janet Yellen told Congress on Wednesday.

Voters seem to be taking note. Asked to name the most pressing problem facing the country today, just 15 percent told Gallup pollsters they worried about an economic issue. At the height of the recession, 86 percent cited an economic issue as their top concern.

A Pew Research Center poll showed half of Americans believe there are plenty of jobs available in their communities, the first time a majority has said so in the more than 15 years Pew has been asking the question. 

But pollsters who conduct surveys for both sides of the aisle say voters are more focused on issues that impact their personal pocketbooks. 

In some cases, the impacts are direct: Democratic voters tend to be most concerned about health care after repeated Republican attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act.

In other cases, the issues are more tangentially related to economics, and more directly to a changing America: Republican voters tend to be more concerned with issues like immigration and crime.

Voters “worry about larger societal trends. The transformative changes we’re seeing in how people live their day-to-day lives is discomforting to everyone on some level,” said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist who worked for Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) presidential campaign.

And independent voters — especially those who are on sounder financial footing — have become far less predictable.

“There is no dominant issue this cycle,” said one prominent Republican pollster, who asked for anonymity to discuss internal results. “Independent voters are scattered all over the place on the issue matrix.”

As evidence of the economy’s declining salience with voters, some pollsters pointed to Virginia, where exit polls showed four in ten voters called health care their most important issue. Those voters chose Democrat Ralph Northam by a three-to-one margin. Just 15 percent of voters said taxes were the most important issue they faced, and those voters backed Republican Ed Gillespie by a two-to-one edge.

Almost twice as many Virginia voters said the state’s economy was getting better as those who said it was getting worse.

Other pollsters point to President Trump’s approval rating, which continues to plumb new depths even as voters say they approve of the way he handles economic issues. 

A recent Harvard/Harris poll found just 41 percent approved of Trump’s overall job performance — the lowest rating he has received in that survey — while just over half approve of his handling of the economy and 51 percent say he they approve of the job he is doing on stimulating jobs. 

Both parties see a benefit in the package of tax cuts currently working its way through Congress. Republicans are pushing the hastily crafted overhaul in response to pressure from donors. Democrats say the measure is historically unpopular, and the longer it leads the news, the better for them.

“It’s part of our DNA that we feel like we’re getting screwed,” Poersch said.