Business group’s poll shows support for GOP tax law

A business group that supports the GOP tax law is highlighting the results of a new poll that shows voters see benefits to the tax cuts, which are a key part of the Republican Party’s midterm messaging this fall.

The poll from the Job Creators Network (JCN) found that 90 percent of Republican voters, 61 percent of swing voters and 36 percent of Democratic voters think the tax law will have a positive effect on the economy.

The poll, conducted by Luntz Global, includes an over-sampling of Trump voters, Republicans and small business owners. 

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Specifically, it surveyed 1,000 respondents, 700 of whom were from a national sample that was weighted to represent the voting population. An additional 300 were Trump voters, Republicans and small business owners.

It’s likely that sampling led to a result that could be more favorable for the GOP tax law, but the Job Creators Network said the results are significant nonetheless because they show some support for the tax law across-the-board and counteracts a narrative in the press that even Republicans don’t fully support the tax law.

“It’s pretty obvious from the data that the tax cuts are popular,” said JCN spokesman Jack Mozloom. He added that JCN plans to brief House Republicans on its survey.

Mozloom said that while there’s a pervasive narrative that the tax cuts are unpopular and the measure has received a lot of criticism in the media, Republicans should be proud to defend their votes for the bill. 

“We have been saying all year long, we think the tax cuts are on the ballot this year,” he said. “What we want is Republicans to defend them vigorously.”

JCN’s poll comes as other surveys have been finding that voters are positive about the economy but don’t overwhelmingly support the tax law — Republicans’ signature legislative accomplishment since President Trump took office.

Republicans’ optimism about their fate in the midterms has been growing in recent weeks amid positive economic data. But Democrats are hoping that they can win control of the House, and the president’s party typically loses seats in midterm elections.

The Labor Department on Friday reported that the unemployment rate in May declined to 3.8 percent, the lowest level since April 2000. And a number of recent surveys have shown Democrats’ advantage on the generic congressional ballot narrowing.

Still, many surveys have found that more people oppose the tax law than support it. And they have found that most people aren’t reporting paycheck increases due to the law.

JCN’s poll found that 64 percent of Republican voters, 38 percent of swing voters and 33 percent of Democratic voters said they expect their taxes to decrease due to the tax law.

The survey was conducted from May 25 to May 30. The national sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.