Majority in new poll says recession is likely

A majority of respondents — 60 percent — said in a new poll that a recession is likely within the next year amid the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China.

While the ABC News–Washington Post poll found that 56 percent still positively rate the U.S. economy overall, Americans by a nearly 3-to-1 margin say President Trump’s trade and economic policies have made a recession more likely to occur in the next 12 months.

The survey revealed a partisan split on economic attitudes, with 90 percent of Republicans favorably rating the economy compared to 52 percent of independents and 33 percent of Democrats.{mosads}

Pollsters noted that 60 percent who now see a recession as very or somewhat likely in the next year is not far off from the 69 percent who said the same thing in November 2007, ahead of the Great Recession.

The new poll was conducted from Sept. 2 to Sept. 5 among 1,003 adults. It has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

Trump late last month announced plans to increase tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars in Chinese goods in a sweeping response to duties Beijing had announced earlier that day. The 10 percent tariff on $300 billion in Chinese goods that went into effect Sept. 1 increased to 15 percent, and an additional $250 billion being tariffed at 25 percent will be hit with a 30 percent tariff starting Oct. 1.

Fears of a global recession are also driven in part by the mounting costs of Trump’s trade battles, with U.S. business investment, exports and manufacturing all retracting as firms hold off on expanding due to an uncertain and chaotic economic climate.