Overnight Finance: Wall Street awaits Fed rate decision

So, where’s everybody watching the debate?…

TOMORROW STARTS TONIGHT: WILL THE FED RAISE RATES? Bloomberg with the primer: “The Federal Reserve will have to confront the costs of its massive balance-sheet expansion when policy makers raise interest rates. The U.S. central bank’s exit strategy from unprecedented stimulus looks set to send big ripples through the financial system once it begins. These could hit the economy faster than they did in past tightening cycles, as rate rises radiate through a banking system constrained by new regulations and flooded with cash created by the Fed’s bond-buying program.

{mosads}”The question is what that means for the economy and how it alters Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s calculus over the pace of tightening. Understanding the plumbing of the new financial landscape will be vital for policy makers trying to fine-tune the economy and investors navigating turbulent markets.” http://bloom.bg/1iwsO19

— FIRST LOOK: Ahead of the Fed’s looming decision on interest rates, Third Way is releasing a new memo outlining three major themes about rate hikes and what to expect if rates rise. Read the full report here: http://bit.ly/1Og7Ccs

THIS IS OVERNIGHT FINANCE, and stick with TheHill.com for tonight’s all-important second Republican presidential debate. Tweet: @kevcirilli; email: kcirilli@digital-staging.thehill.com; and subscribe: http://digital-staging.thehill.com/signup/48. Back to work…

DEBATE NIGHT IN AMERICA. Our Jonathan Easley is in California: SIMI VALLEY — Republicans are expecting a bare-knuckles brawl when 11 candidates take the stage for the party’s second presidential debate against the bucolic setting of the Reagan Library. While the setting will be very different from the Cleveland basketball arena that hosted August’s first debate, it’s not expected that the candidates will hold their fire. Easley’s five things to watch: 1.) Trump will come under attack. 2.) CNN will try to amplify the conflict. 3.) Establishment candidates will battle to break out. 4.) Every candidate will claim Reagan’s mantle. 5.) Foreign policy will play a major role. http://bit.ly/1F2W21z 

SIDEBAR: NAVAJOS SLAM OBAMA, via me: The president of the Navajo Nation slammed President Obama and Democrats for deserting the tribe’s 300,000 people after the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) accidentally polluted a river the tribe depends on, leaving one-third of the reserve’s drinking water unsafe. http://bit.ly/1ii7v2y

EX-IM WATCH: ABOUT THOSE GE JOB LOSSES, via Freedom Partners press release: “General Electric (GE) made headlines Tuesday with the company’s announcement that it would be moving ‘around 500 U.S. jobs overseas… a decision the company said was prompted by the lapse of the U.S. Export-Import Bank.’ The announcement was another expected installment of GE’s desperate PR push to convince Congress to reauthorize the Ex-Im Bank–threatening American workers’ livelihoods in the process.

“Here’s the thing no one noticed, though: at least 400 of those jobs don’t even exist. Freedom Partners spokesman James Davis issued the following statement:

“It’s disappointing that General Electric would attempt to bully taxpayers into giving them more corporate welfare. Using a lack of subsidies to threaten American workers and lawmakers is about as desperate and cynical as it gets–not to mention 400 of these jobs don’t even exist.”

FIDUCIARY FIGHT: FIRST LOOK. The center-right American Action Forum is out with new research that found the proposed financial adviser fees would amount to $1500 per investor account. The research can be found here: http://bit.ly/1QiBna6.

— ROSKAM: YOUNG PEOPLE HIT HARDEST IN FIDUCIARY FIGHT, via Financial Adviser: “House Ways and Means Committee Oversight Subcommittee Chair Peter Roskam (R-Ill.) told the Financial Services Roundtable he is zeroing in on young savers as among the most severe potential victims of the Department of Labor’s fiduciary rule. Roskam said they will be particularly hurt because they will not be able to get advice at the start of their efforts to save for retirement.” http://bit.ly/1KgUcJc

GOOD NEWS, because it’s been a long week, via Jordan Fabian: A Texas teenager who was suspended from school for bringing a homemade clock to class received a 21st century invitation from President Obama on Wednesday to visit the White House. Instead of making a traditional phone call, Obama took to his personal Twitter account to invite Ahmed Mohamed, 14, of Irving, Texas, to show off the device at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. http://bit.ly/1W3P1Sl

BUDGET BATTLE: DEMS SAY GOP ITCHING FOR A SHUTDOWN. Rebecca Shabad: Two key House Democrats on Wednesday blasted a government spending package unveiled by the Republican Study Committee (RSC), arguing it signals that conservatives want a shutdown. RSC’s measure, released on Tuesday, would take direct aim at Planned Parenthood, President Obama’s immigration policies and the Iran nuclear deal.

—  Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md), ranking member on the House Budget Committee, during a conference call with reporters: “Looking at this, we can only conclude that 70 percent of the House Republican caucus is itching to, once again, shut down the government even though we know the steep price we paid when we shut down the government two years ago.”

— Rep. Nita Lowey (D-N.Y.), the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, also on the call: “The Speaker has wasted time, failed to do so, and now it’s time to stand up and get a grip on the most extreme elements of his conference.” http://bit.ly/1LyVayg

OBAMA: GOP ‘PLAYING CHICKEN.’ From Jordan Fabian: “President Obama is wading into the contentious budget fight on Capitol Hill two weeks ahead of a possible government shutdown. During a speech at the Business Roundtable in Washington, Obama pressured Republicans who control Congress to reach a deal with Democrats to fund the government before a Sept. 30 deadline. He chided GOP lawmakers for threatening to shut down the government unless Planned Parenthood is defunded. ‘The notion we play chicken with a $18 trillion economy … all because of an issue around a woman’s health provider that receives less than 20 cents out of every 1,000 dollars in the federal budget, that’s not good policy making.'” http://bit.ly/1MrTa0s

OBAMA, REID, PELOSI TO HUDDLE ON SPENDING FIGHT: From Alexander Bolton: Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) will meet with President Obama at the White House on Thursday to discuss their endgame on spending talks. http://bit.ly/1Oga9U3

EX-IM WATCH: HOYER THINKS BOEHNER WILL SAVE EX-IM. Mike Lillis: House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) has shown little appetite for extending the Export-Import Bank in the face of staunch conservative opposition from within his own ranks. But Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) thinks that soon could change. Based on talks he’s had with Boehner this summer, Hoyer thinks the Speaker will find a way to revive the controversial bank, whose charter expired in June, despite the conservative pressure to bury it. http://bit.ly/1UXkKr1

Meanwhile…

DEMS: ATTACH EX-IM TO BUDGET, via Jordain Carney: Senate Democrats suggested Wednesday that reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank could be tied to a government funding bill. “If we don’t get this done and reauthorize the Ex-Im Bank, they’re going to eat our lunch,” Sen. Amy Klobuchar said. “That’s why my colleagues would like to reauthorize the Ex-Im Bank in the bills that we must pass to keep the government operating.” http://bit.ly/1KhGDqI

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