On The Money — Democrats try to run through the tape

Happy Tuesday and welcome to On The Money, your nightly guide to everything affecting your bills, bank account and bottom line. Subscribe here: digital-staging.thehill.com/newsletter-signup.

Today’s Big Deal: Democrats are trying to pass the rest of President Biden’s economic agenda this week. We’ll also look at an updated debt limit deadline and a surprising jump in retail sales. 

But first, Thanksgiving might not be great for lawmakers.

For The Hill, I’m Sylvan Lane. Write me at slane@digital-staging.thehill.com or @SylvanLane. You can reach my colleagues on the Finance team Naomi Jagoda at njagoda@digital-staging.thehill.com or @NJagoda and Aris Folley at afolley@digital-staging.thehill.com or @ArisFolley.

Let’s get to it.

Dems bullish they’ll reach finish line this week 

House Democrats are increasingly bullish that they will pass their social spending and climate package this week, saying they’ll rally the support of wary moderates who want more information on the measure’s cost before voting for it.

• House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said Tuesday that the bill will hit the floor Wednesday for debate, and receive a vote as soon as Thursday, though the timeline could slip to Friday or Saturday. 
• The vote is expected to come after the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) releases additional reports gauging the cost of the legislation.

The key: A handful of centrists have withheld their support for the $1.75 trillion package while awaiting more “fiscal information” from the CBO, but they’ve stopped shy of demanding a comprehensive estimate from Congress’s official scorekeeper.

That nuanced distinction has left both the moderates and party leaders with some wiggle room in the debate, and key lawmakers are already indicating they’re ready to back the legislation without a final CBO score.  

Aris, Naomi and Mike Lillis have more here.

 

LEADING THE DAY

Yellen warns US could default soon after Dec. 15

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told congressional leaders Tuesday that the federal government could default on its debt soon after December 15 without action to raise the federal borrowing limit.

In a Tuesday letter, Yellen said she has “a high degree of confidence” in Treasury’s ability to keep the U.S. current on debt payments until midway through next month — roughly two weeks longer than her initial projection of Dec. 3.

She warned, however, that the U.S. could run out of cash soon after transferring $118 billion to the Highway Trust Fund to comply with the recently signed bipartisan infrastructure bill.

I explain why here.

JP vs. LB

Biden eyes decision on Fed chair this week

President Biden said Tuesday he would make an announcement on the Federal Reserve’s leadership in “about four days.”

“Yes, as my grandfather would say, with the grace of God and the goodwill of the neighbors, you’re gonna hear that in about four days,” Biden said when asked if he was closer to a decision on the Federal Reserve chair.

Biden faces a decision on whether to renominate current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for another term or to select someone else for the position. Biden is said to be considering Lael Brainard, who serves on the Federal Reserve board of governors, for the role.

The president made the comments to reporters Tuesday afternoon while in New Hampshire, where he was traveling to promote the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill he signed into law on Monday.

A White House official later told The Hill that an announcement would be made sometime before Thanksgiving, which is next Thursday.

Morgan Chalfant has more here.

Virtual Event Announcement–America’s Economic Recovery–Thursday, November 18 at 1:00 PM ET 

Rising consumer prices, product shortages and labor inconsistencies are rattling the U.S. economic recovery. Yet, the economy has created over four million jobs this year and wages continue to rise. What role will consumers and businesses play in economic recovery and how will they emerge from the downturn? What is the domestic growth forecast for next year? Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D-Md.), Rep. Dave Schweikert (R-Ariz.), ADP Chief Economist Dr. Nela Richardson and Princeton economist Janet Currie join The Hill’s Steve Clemons for a discussion on the new economic landscape and the changing labor force. RSVP today.

 

TRICK OR TREAT YOURSELF

Retail sales up 1.7 percent in October, beating expectations

Retail sales jumped 1.7 percent in October, according to data released Tuesday by the Census Bureau, beating expectations and rising for the third straight month.

U.S. retailers, restaurants and bars made $638.2 billion in sales last month without adjusting for inflation, up from $627.5 billion in September. Analysts expected a 1.4 percent increase from September, which saw sales grow 0.8 percent from August, according to revised figures released Tuesday.

• The surprisingly strong month of retail sales is a promising sign for the U.S. economy amid high inflation and plummeting consumer confidence. 
• While the labor market, wage growth, stock market and consumer spending have all held steady this fall, a 30-year high in consumer price growth has strained household budgets and turned public opinion against President Biden’s handling of the economy.

I break it down here.

Good to Know 

Inflation is hammering restaurants, dismantling the industry’s fragile recovery from pandemic-induced shutdowns just as customers resume dining out.

Here’s what else have our eye on:

• Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio), chairwoman of the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC), signaled on Tuesday that the group was more than ready to use its influence to ensure that President Biden’s $1.75 Build Back Better package passes through the House before Thanksgiving.
• A new study from Pew Research Center found that 25 percent of U.S. adult Twitter users are responsible for 97 percent of posts in the country.

 

That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Finance page for the latest news and coverage. We’ll see you tomorrow.