White House faces new obstacles in ObamaCare’s second year

ObamaCare’s second enrollment period is going better than its first. But that’s not saying much.

The administration is being sued in a case to be heard by the Supreme Court over the subsidies that help 13 million people get insurance. Republicans also filed their long-awaited lawsuit on Friday against the law.

{mosads}Even as millions gain insurance, the law is less popular than ever with voters, something that’s hard to improve given several public relations disasters surrounding it, most notably a consultant’s comments that ObamaCare only became law because of the “stupidity of the American voter.”

It all adds up to a huge challenge for the Obama administration, which over the next two years wants to leave the law at a place where it will be difficult for a new government to erase it.

“I think all of these things are coming together to remind people about why they don’t like the law,” said Lanhee Chen, a former healthcare policy adviser for presidential candidate Mitt Romney. “It really does create an opportunity for Republicans in the new Congress in 2014, and also the candidates in 2016.”

He said the tough headlines on ObamaCare this month have exposed new flaws in the law — and its leadership.

“So far, 2014 has not been any better to the law than 2013,” Chen said, adding that next year could be “progressively worse” if the Supreme Court rules against the law’s subsides.

The flood of bad news is overshadowing an open enrollment period that has been going smoothly for the administration, with a half-million people logging on the first day.

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) had spent months planning the launch intent on avoiding a repeat of last fall’s website collapse, which one Democratic strategist said was the administration’s “biggest fear” going into year two.

But the spotlight has strayed from ObamaCare’s successful open enrollment and landed on problems that have been largely out of the hands of the administration.

“Some of this seems to be leftover residue from the previous regime,” said the Democratic strategist, who helped shape the healthcare law’s passage. “For everything that’s in control of the administration right now, they seem to be doing a pretty good job.”

The GOP has seized on ObamaCare consultant Jonathan Gruber’s comments about the law and the government’s misreported enrollment figures. Both issues will come to a head at a hearing next month during what could be the last week of the current Congress.

Rep. Chris Smith (R-N.J.) said in an interview that every slip-up brings ObamaCare closer to collapse, particularly in the climate of next year’s Congress.

He said he is confident that Republicans will pick apart the law piece by piece, fueled by new claims of dishonesty and deception by the administration.

“I know Democrats who feel the same way. It’s like, you can’t trust them. It’s like, ‘Just tell the truth.’ And that’s been lacking,” Smith said.

“We still have only seen a tip of this iceberg,” he added.

GOP Senate leadership has vowed to take a repeal vote next year, though incoming Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has acknowledged that he will likely have to work around the president’s veto by dismantling the law “root and branch.”

The party’s fight against ObamaCare next year will be key to setting the groundwork for its 2016 contender. Already, Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) are working on alternatives to ObamaCare.

Both parties have acknowledged that the Supreme Court decision next spring would have a more damaging effect on the law than any political attack. All eyes are on conservative Chief Justice John Roberts, who is again expected to be the deciding vote on cases involving the Affordable Care Act (ACA).

If the law is struck down and subsidies are erased in 34 states, policy experts have warned that Democrats could be forced to rethink some of the ACA’s key provisions, losing some of their control over the law’s future.

“I think that it’s very difficult for the Obama folks to recover from that,” said Rick Wilson, a Republican media strategist.

Wilson added that the administration’s “trainwreck” over the last month has created a political opening to cause major damage to the law next year.

“All of those things are going to come back in a series of inflection points in the next six months, and they’re all going to cause pressure,” he said. “If the GOP are smart, they’ll start throwing some sand in the machine.”