Rick Scott faces peril with abortion on Florida’s ballot

Sen. Rick Scott (R) faces a major test in the home stretch of his race for reelection, as Florida’s constitutional amendment on abortion puts the issue front and center in what appears to be an increasingly close race against former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who has been slamming him over his unabashedly anti-abortion position.

As other Republicans scramble, stumble and largely avoid publicly saying how they will vote on ballot measures to protect abortion access, Scott has been clear that he will vote against Florida’s, making himself an outlier among GOP Senate candidates.

Scott has repeatedly said the amendment is too extreme, claiming it would allow abortion “up until the moment of birth.”

In states like Montana, Nevada and Arizona — all of which will have abortion amendments on the ballot — Republican candidates have largely avoided publicly stating how they’ll vote, underlining that the party views abortion as an electoral liability. 

Christian Ulvert, a Florida-based Democratic strategist, said he was surprised at Scott’s open opposition, given how popular the state’s Amendment 4 is polling.  

“It’s 100 percent overconfidence,” Ulvert said. “I think the miscalculation on their campaign’s part is — look at what’s happened in other parts of the country, even in more conservative areas like Kansas and Kentucky, even Ohio, on this issue. So, they are discounting how much support there is, even among moderate Republicans.”

However, Brett Doster, a Florida GOP campaign strategist, said Scott should get a boost for sticking to his principles.  

“This is an issue where, well, you just don’t get a lot of points for gamesmanship,” Doster said.  

“If you don’t have a sense of conviction about these issues and a sense of confidence about your own leadership, then it is easy to get tied into knots on these things. … What you have to do is just go out and advocate for your position.”  

More than two years after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, Republicans still have a difficult time navigating the issue of abortion. But the GOP is confident about taking control of the Senate, and candidates are hoping the Democratic advantage on abortion isn’t enough to cost them close races.

Scott is favored to win reelection, but a poll earlier this month showed Mucarsel-Powell behind by just 1 point, making the race a statistical dead heat. The Hill and Decision Desk HQ give Scott a 67 percent chance of winning the race.

Scott has a history of winning tight races, and Florida voters have recently been passing progressive ballot measures while electing conservative Republicans. In recent years, Floridians passed amendments allowing restoration of voting rights for felons, an increased minimum wage, and legalized medicinal marijuana.

Floridians in November will vote on Amendment 4, which would prohibit the state from restricting abortion access up to fetal viability, which is around 24 weeks of pregnancy.   

Polls show the amendment could have enough support to get the 60 percent support needed to pass. But that threshold means Republican support is essential.

Florida currently bans abortion after fetal cardiac activity is detected, which is around six weeks of gestation, before most people know they are pregnant. There are limited exceptions to the ban, and anyone who performs an illegal abortion could be charged with a felony.

Like many other Republicans, Scott has waffled somewhat on his abortion stance. He backed the six-week ban when it was first passed by the state Legislature last year, saying if he were still governor, he would sign the bill. But then in April, just weeks before the six-week ban took effect, Scott said he’d support replacing it with one that bans abortion at 15 weeks, with exceptions for cases of rape, incest and to protect the life of the mother. 

Scott campaign spokesman Will Hampson said Scott has been “transparent” about where he stands on the issues. 

“Senator Scott has been clear that he is going to vote no on Amendment 4 but has encouraged all Florida voters to make their voices heard in November,” Hampson said in a statement to The Hill. “Senator Scott believes the consensus in Florida is around 15 weeks with exceptions for rape, incest, and life of the mother.” 

If the abortion amendment is defeated, Florida’s six-week ban will remain in place.  

Florida Republicans have seen major victories since 2020 that have helped push the state further to the right. Even in 2022, when Democrats across the country successfully campaigned on tying their Republican opponents to the end of Roe v. Wade, Florida Republicans saw sweeping double-digit victories. 

But with abortion access directly on the ballot this year, the calculus could change. 

Mucarsel-Powell has been attacking Scott on abortion since she won the Democratic primary in August. 

“We have this opportunity to vote for Amendment 4 … but it’s not going to mean anything if Rick Scott gets his way, gets reelected and then pushes for a national abortion ban,” Mucarsel-Powell said in an MSNBC interview this week.  

In her first general election ad, Mucarsel-Powell described Scott’s abortion position as taking away the freedoms she and her family sought when they immigrated from Ecuador. 

Lauren Chou, communications director for Mucarsel-Powell’s campaign, said having an abortion amendment on the ballot gives the campaign an opportunity to show voters the real-life stakes of Scott’s position. 

“People here in Florida really hate the government telling them what they can and can’t do, and this abortion ban that Rick Scott said that he would sign if he was governor, is the government trying to tell Floridians what to do,” Chou said. 

Republican strategists, on the other hand, say Scott has name recognition and a clear record as a senator and governor, unlike Senate candidates in other states.

“He’s got a little bit more protection, because he’s the name they know. He’s been the governor twice. He’s got a lot more cachet with the voters in Florida than a lot of the other folks,” said Ford O’Connell, a Florida-based GOP strategist. 

But that’s exactly what makes Scott vulnerable this cycle, Chou said. He’s running on his record, and it hasn’t really changed, particularly on abortion. 

“No other Republican that’s running statewide in Florida this cycle has as clear of a tie to that ban as Rick Scott does, and that’s something that our campaign certainly has made a focus out of, and we’re making sure that Floridians everywhere know that this abortion ban is because of people like Rick Scott.”