Belarus’s authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko is basking in the spotlight as a peacemaker for quickly ending an armed rebellion in Russia, using the crisis to assert his power in an uneasy relationship with Moscow.
Lukashenko is taking credit for getting Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the mercenary group Wagner, to abort his attempt at mutiny against Russia’s generals. And he’s boasting that he convinced Russian President Vladimir Putin to avoid bloodshed by giving clemency to Wagner troops and allowing Prigozhin to take exile in Belarus.
“I must say it was painful for me to watch the recent developments in the south of Russia,” Lukashenko said in wide-ranging remarks at a military ceremony on Tuesday, detailing what he said was his role to sway Putin against “eliminating” Prighozin.
“The turmoil was thus prevented. Dangerous events that might have taken place were reversed.”
The Belarusian president “is definitely basking in the glory,” said Alena Kudzko, vice president for policy and programming at GlobSec, a Slovakian think tank focused on European security.
“He knows very well the power of his position, he got international recognition, and most importantly he knows that Putin owes him,” she added.
“But this public perception in Russia, Belarus, and around the world that Putin was weak and couldn’t handle the conflict himself, is something that Putin is going to remember and will have a grudge against Lukashenko — even though, paradoxically Lukashenko was helpful for him, for sure.”
Lukashenko has maintained his grip on power for nearly three decades through brutal repression of any opposition in Belarus. A violent and deadly crackdown in response to protests against his claimed victory in 2020 presidential elections – widely described as fraudulent – marked a new level of brutality for the man who is called “Europe’s Last Dictator.”
Maintaining control of Belarus’s armed forces is essential for Lukashenko to retain his power and push back against the organized political opposition in exile, as well as armed threats from Belarusian opposition fighters honing their military experience on the frontline with Ukrainian forces against Russia.
These fighters, named the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment (KKR), put out a recruitment video amid the mutiny in Russia as a call to arms for Belarusians to prepare for a takedown against Lukashenko.
“We have a huge reserve on the territory of Belarus, which includes active military, reserve military and ordinary citizens, who are ready to act and liberate Belarus from dictatorship and occupation,” a regiment member said in a video posted to Twitter.
“Soldiers, reservists, Belarusians — wait for our signal! The time of freedom is approaching!”
Lukashenko acknowledged these threats in his remarks at the military ceremony, saying the Belarusian opposition in exile have published plans “to implement their scenario of an armed mutiny” and said the KKR “have taken leave of their senses.”
“The number one task of yours and all people in uniform is to take the necessary measures to prevent the escalation of the situation,” Lukashenko said at the ceremony.
“You don’t have to constantly think about some lofty matters. Leave that to the politicians. You have clear and understandable tasks.”
Averting civil war in Russia was in Lukashenko’s interest, but his offer to house Prigozhin and Wagner mercenaries presents problems.
“Lukashenko has a very sober understanding that this might be dangerous for him,” said Kudzko, who is originally from Belarus.
“He thinks the Wagner mutiny set an example for others.”
Few details are available of the terms of the Wagner surrender in Belarus – or whether the fighters have even arrived.
Putin said he has offered Wagner fighters contracts to join the Russian Ministry of Defense and other security services, but added that “those who want to are free to go to Belarus.”
The Russian president is also taking steps to dismantle Prigozhin’s business holdings, a vast and lucrative empire that includes contracts employing Wagner fighters in Syria and African nations, but also interests in extracting and selling precious metals and gems.
The Biden administration on Tuesday issued sanctions against a network of Prigozhin-linked companies engaged in an illicit gold trade that operates out of the Central African Republic and the United Arab Emirates.
Lukashenko will be challenged to keep Prigozhin in line —who he described as “euphoric” while amid his mutiny — and constrain a flank of battle-hardened fighters so that they don’t provoke instability inside Belarus or along its borders.
“I don’t think his primary goal is to provoke NATO countries with Prigozhin,” Kudzko said. “He knows if they do something unacceptable, the situation can get out of control very quickly. That’s not in his interest.”
But Lukashenko has floated using Wagner fighters as trainers for Belarus’s military, noting their “hands-on combat experience” was “invaluable.”
“We need to adopt this experience from … Wagner,” Lukashenko said in remarks to his defense minister this week.
This saber rattling extends to nuclear weapons too, with Lukashenko offering conflicting statements over whether Putin has delivered on positioning nuclear arms in Belarus. He has further said that even as Moscow will retain control of the weapons, “it’s not a problem to coordinate a strike” if he feels threatened.
NATO-member states on the border with Belarus are raising alarm that the potential presence of Wagner forces raises their security threat level and are calling for the alliance to reinforce the eastern flank.
Poland is planning to increase its military presence close to the border, Deputy Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski said at a press conference in Warsaw on Wednesday, and warned of a “new phase of hybrid warfare.”
“We potentially have a new situation in Belarus with the Wagner presence,” he said in remarks reported by Bloomberg.
“The situation is dangerous for Ukraine and it’s also potentially dangerous for Lithuania and us.”
Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Berlin would permanently station up to 4,000 troops in Lithuania to reinforce their border with Belarus, in remarks Monday in Vilnius.
Lithuania, which is hosting the leaders-level NATO summit in Vilnius in July, is celebrating the German move as a “huge step” in NATO deterrence and forward defense.
Talking to reporters in Brussels on Thursday, Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nausėda called Wagner mercenaries “serial killers” that “could emerge in Belarus any moment and no one knows when they could turn against us,” the New York Times reported.
For Ukraine, Wagner’s presence in Belarus and the threat it poses is a distinction without a difference. Putin used Belarus as a staging ground to launch his assault on Kyiv in February 2022 but was ultimately repelled by Ukrainian forces.
“Of course, we’re monitoring the threat from everywhere, since 2014 when Russia attacked us the first time, and especially since Feb. 24, and unfortunately a number of attacks came, including the Feb 24 attack, from the territory of Belarus,” Ukraine’s Ambassador to the U.S., Oksana Markarova, told The Hill.
“Yes, our intelligence, our military is, of course, monitoring all of that. But there is no difference for us, between the president of the Russian Federation, or the military leaders of the aggressive country, or Prigozhin, or whoever is doing all these war crimes. For us, all of them are war criminals that deserve to be punished.”