The Biden administration is still holding back from labeling the military takeover of Niger’s government a “coup” a week after it was launched.
The careful word choice keeps in play an estimated $200 million of humanitarian and economic support to the country, largely food assistance for a country of 25 million people where at least 40 percent are estimated to be living on less than $2 per day.
And while the U.S. has suspended military cooperation with Nigerien forces, the administration has not signaled it’s evacuating an estimated 1,100 U.S. troops, who are engaged in counterterrorism, surveillance and intelligence gathering with Nigerien forces.
“The U.S., I think, is doing everything right for now — not calling it a coup right away — to maintain channels of communications, to maintain its support to Niger if the situation were to come back to normal,” said Kamissa Camara, a senior adviser for Africa at the U.S. Institute of Peace.
Camara is a former foreign minister for Mali, a country bordering Niger to the east that had a military coup in 2020.
She calls what is happening in Niger a “coup attempt” and echoed statements from Biden officials that regional leaders in Africa, along with the U.S. and European countries, are pursuing a narrowing window of diplomacy that could reinstate Niger’s President Mohamed Bazoum.
Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder said Tuesday that the fluid situation in Niger means it’s “just too soon to characterize” the unrest as a coup.
“We’re not going to get into labels,” Ryder said. “We are going to continue to be focused on using diplomatic tools to try to preserve Niger’s hard-earned democracy.”
At the forefront of diplomatic efforts is the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), comprising the heads of state and government of 15 West African states and their offices headquartered in Nigeria — Africa’s most populous country and largest economy.
Camara said that ECOWAS leadership, under Nigeria’s President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has put forth a more assertive position in responding to the coup attempt in Niger compared to a relatively weaker position in response to military coups in Mali (2020), Guinea (2021) and Burkina Faso (2022).
“I think the ECOWAS, especially with the past military takeovers … was considered to be too soft on the juntas, and not more assertive, as to why they would not tolerate military coups any longer,” she said.
“President Tinubu really wants to reverse that and wants to show that Nigeria is back, that he’s not [previous Nigerian President Muhammadu] Buhari, and will not let military coups just happen without the ECOWAS being very firm about not tolerating them,” Camara added.
ECOWAS denounced Niger’s military takeover by Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani that took place July 26. The body is convening a two-day meeting of defense chiefs of the 15-nation bloc beginning Wednesday, and it has not ruled out the use of force in restoring Bazoum to power.
Camara said the firm position by ECOWAS, backed by Nigeria’s powerful army, makes the threat of use of force very serious for Niger’s military leaders. She added that pushback from states like Ghana and Benin, the latter borders Niger and is a key access point to ocean ports, are important levers of pressure against the coup leaders.
ECOWAS backing from the U.S. and France, the former colonial power in Niger and a key security partner in the region, is further signaling the power of the 15-member bloc against the Nigerien junta, Camara added.
“I think the ECOWAS has the world with them against Niger.”
However, the military-ruled Mali and Burkina Faso have come out in support of Gen. Tchiani’s power grab. Guinea, also ruled by a military junta, has come out opposing sanctions imposed by ECOWAS and spoken out against military intervention.
Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea, while still part of ECOWAS, are excluded from the decision-making body. They were suspended immediately in the aftermath of their military coups.
“There’s not enough actual trust among ECOWAS members, and that lack of trust is what will break any type of coordinated response,” Aneliese Bernard, director of Strategic Stabilization Advisors, a global business advisory firm, told The Associated Press.
But Ebenezer Obadare, senior fellow for Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, argues that Nigeria’s forces, working in concert with Ghana and Senegal, is an important force that could dislodge the Nigerien junta.
“While the immediate aim should be the removal of General Tchiani and the restoration of President Bazoum, the long-term aim should be to send a message that this is the last coup d’état in West Africa,” he wrote in a blog post for CFR.
The European Union and countries like France, Germany and Italy have suspended their assistance to the Nigerien government and have urged their citizens to take advantage of evacuation flights, even as military forces from some of these countries have, so far, stayed on the ground as part of their counterterrorism missions.
“The situation is just very fluid and it’s always kind of hard to speculate about what could happen,” Camara said.
“I think it’s important to highlight that Nigeria is back, within the ECOWAS, and that President Tinubu seems to be a no-nonsense guy, who’s not going to let that go, he’s just not going to let it go. It’s a test for his own credibility and for the ECOWAS critically.”