Congress cheers Biden’s Turkey gambit in Russia tug-of-war

Republicans and Democrats are expressing openness to overtures by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to improve relations with the U.S., in an effort to turn Ankara away from military ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Relations with Turkey cleaved during former President Trump’s administration after Ankara’s purchase of the Russian air defense system S-400, prompting Congress to kick Turkey out of the F-35 joint strike fighter-jet program, one part of Congress’s sweeping sanctions against Russia following its meddling in the 2016 election. 

U.S. officials at the time said the presence of the S-400 in Turkey posed a security risk, exposing the maintenance and production of F-35s to Russian intelligence gathering. As a result, Turkey lost out on acquiring about 100 of the advanced fighter jets and military production contracts. 

But the Biden administration is reportedly pursuing a solution in which Turkey would agree to transfer the S-400s to U.S. control, or allow American access to the systems, in exchange for reentry into the F-35 program. 

Admitting Turkey back into the F-35 program would require approval from the four top lawmakers on the House and Senate Foreign Affairs committees — an action lawmakers expressed openness to and optimism about when approached by The Hill. 

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, smiled when asked if the Biden administration is pursuing talks with Turkey over a potential solution that would allow the U.S. and Ukraine access to the S-400 to study its build.

“Well Turkey has access to one [S-400], you’re getting warm,” McCaul said in response to a question from The Hill. 

McCaul said he has heard the Biden administration is potentially trying to make a deal with Turkey to bring them back into the F-35 program, but said it “depends on what Turkey does in exchange for that. And I can’t get into what that is.”

He noted how Erdoğan has demonstrated an ability to follow through on hard negotiations — moving forward on ratifying Sweden’s accession to NATO in exchange for the U.S. delivery of F-16 fighter jets, on top of other concessions the Turkish president secured from Stockholm and the European Union. 

“It just depends on how well they cooperate with NATO … depends what else they do, it’s a good way to motivate and we don’t want to see them buy it from other countries like Russia,” McCaul said of the modern fighter jets. 

Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho), ranking member of the Senate Foreign Affairs panel, was less optimistic.

“This is not new talk, we’ve been talking about that … literally, years,” he told The Hill. 

But he said he would move forward on approving F-35 transfers if Turkey gives up the S-400. 

“I have always said Turkey should give up the S-400, period. How they do it, I’m agnostic on it. If the idea that they’re kicking around gets it done, I’m all for it. I suggested to them a long, long time ago, in fact the suggestion was made during the Trump administration. Turkey did not bite on it then, I don’t know if they’ll bite on it now,” he said.  

Turkey is among the most frustrating allies for the U.S. and NATO. On the one hand, Erdoğan is an anti-democratic, Hamas-supporting, allegedly corrupt leader who uses violence to silence dissent (including against protesters in the U.S.) and has engaged in provocative military actions toward fellow NATO allies like Greece.  

But on the other hand, Erdoğan has demonstrated Ankara’s ability to serve as a key go-between for NATO and its adversaries; has contributed significantly in humanitarian assistance for Syrian refugees; and its geography as a country straddling Europe, Asia and the Middle East makes it a major player in strategic security.

“This is a moment where you can feel some momentum behind the relationship,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee who met with Erdoğan in Ankara in February alongside Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.).

“Obviously we’re always going to have friction points as any complicated alliance structure does, but my hope is that we can find a way to get more integrated when it comes to defense. We need them to solve this S-400 issue, and hopefully we’ll be able to make some progress.”

Shaheen, a senior member of the Senate Foreign Relations and Armed Services committees, said their meeting with Erdoğan in February was “positive.”

“We talked about the potential, I don’t want to say reset, but to look at a better relationship with the United States and Turkey going forward, and obviously that’s one of the issues that would have to be addressed,” she said of the S-400s.

“I think the administration has been working to see if there was something that might work, and so it depends on how it’s structured, obviously.” 

Shaheen also raised Greece as an important element of improving U.S. relations with Turkey. The U.S. is often in the middle of Greek-Turkish tensions that have ebbed and flowed over long-standing grievances and unresolved conflicts. One key element of getting F-16s to Turkey in exchange for their approving Sweden into NATO was, separately, approving Greece’s participation in the F-35 program — securing Athens an edge over Ankara in air superiority. 

But Athens and Ankara have made moves to improve ties over the past few years, and Erdoğan and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis held a meeting Tuesday on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, expressing openness to talks on maritime issues that contribute to tensions. 

Jim Townsend, adjunct senior fellow in the Transatlantic Security Program with the Center for a New American Security, said Athens and Ankara regularly go through cycles of tensions and improved relations, but that this week’s meeting was still a hopeful sign.

“If they’re starting to have earnest talks, politically acceptable talks chipping away at their issues, that’s wonderful,” he said. “I know it’s going to take a long time, it’s difficult.”

Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.), the ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and among those who would have to sign off on F-35s for Turkey, talked of improved relations with Greece as also opening the pathway to improving relations with Turkey. 

“I think from my conversations with our allies and friends in Greece, that that relationship is better than what it was, so I think we’re in a better place than we may have been some time ago when none of those things were true.” 

Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, a visiting fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution, said that Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s global ambitions and the wars in the Middle East have reinforced to both Washington and Ankara the need for rapprochement.

“There is little appetite for embracing Erdoğan personally — due to his image and Turkey’s democratic backsliding. But there seems to be a desire to rebuild institutional ties and resuscitate this relationship,” she wrote in an email to The Hill.   

“So I see greater willingness on the part of Turkey to find a solution to the S-400 issue short of shipping it back to Russia — and more receptivity in Washington to find creative and politically acceptable formulas. And if Congress is on board, this will likely happen.”