Moldova becomes ‘testing ground’ for Russian election interference

Russian efforts to influence Moldova’s Oct. 20 elections have reached unprecedented levels, with Moscow allegedly spending up to hundreds of millions of dollars to buy votes, pump out deepfake videos generated by artificial intelligence and boost the campaigns of Kremlin-favored candidates.

The blitz illustrates the lengths Russia will go to keep the tiny, former Soviet republic within its sphere of influence. Sandwiched between Ukraine and NATO-member Romania, Moscow is working to upend Moldova’s efforts to distance itself from Russia and build closer ties with democratic governments in the European Union and the U.S.

“This is a very clear message for Moldova and the international community that they [Russia] will not abandon Moldova,” said Ion Manole, director of Promo-LEX, a democracy and human rights organization based in the capital Chișinău.

“They will try to destabilize, they will try to do what they want against Moldova because Moldova is important for them to fight against Ukraine. If they can’t control Moldova, at least to destabilize, to make a huge chaos here, this will be an important contribution for their attacks in Ukraine.”

The Hill traveled to Moldova at the beginning of October on a four-day tour organized by the German Marshall Fund, the nonpartisan policy organization that promotes closer ties between Europe and the U.S. The group organized interviews with Moldovan government officials, opposition candidates, think tanks and journalists to provide insight into the stakes and tensions around the election. 

Moldovans will go to the polls for both the presidential election and to vote on a referendum to change their constitution by adding accession to the European Union as an imperative. Moldova, with a Romanian-speaking majority and Russian-speaking minority, is about the size of Maryland, with 2.5 million people, and an estimated 1 million in its diaspora.

‘Moldova is the unfortunate testing ground’

Russia’s goal, according to Moldovan government officials and civil society watchdogs, is to dampen popular support for European integration and tank the reelection of the country’s incumbent pro-European president, Maia Sandu, who appears likely to win. 

The 2024 campaign is viewed as a dress rehearsal for Moldovan parliamentary elections in 2025, where Moscow’s goal is to bolster pro-Russian parties in the government. 

“Moldova is the unfortunate testing ground in this hybrid war. We’re building resilience against their lies, election meddling, sowing social discord, and I’m proud our people refuse to give in to the hatred they spread,” said Moldova Prime Minister Dorin Recean.

“Moldova is the front line in defending democracy. The challenge is building the resilience needed to defend it, and it’s a tough balance.”

Moldova under Sandu has more forcefully turned itself away from ties with Russia in favor of closer ties with the EU, an uphill climb made all the more difficult over decades-long efforts to integrate with the pro-Russian separatist regions of Transnistria — which hosts a Russian troop presence — and Gagauzia, an autonomous region home to a Turkic-ethnic group of about 140,000 people, where Russian is the dominant language. 

In June, the U.S., Canada and the United Kingdom issued a joint statement warning that Russian actors are carrying out a plot to influence Moldova’s elections, and in September, issued sanctions against Kremlin-backed entities and individuals in the county engaged in what they described as a vote-buying scheme and efforts to incite violent protests, among other election interference plots.

“One lesson we learned is that Russia’s electoral interference is a continuum,” said Stanislav Secrieru, secretary of the Supreme Security Council of Moldova and adviser to the president.

“It starts long before elections. It manifests on the day of elections. And continues after elections too.”

Estimates vary, but Moldovan government officials and civil watchdogs estimate Russia has spent more than $10 million per month, since January, on influence operations. They point to the fugitive pro-Russian businessman Ilan Shor as one of the main drivers of the campaign. 

Shor, sanctioned by the U.S. and living in exile in Moscow, was convicted in absentia in April 2023 for his role in the stealing of $1 billion that went missing from Moldovan banks in 2014. The U.S. has characterized him as a “Russian government asset”. 

“In [the] case of Russia’s electoral interference, the most important element is dirty money,” a Moldovan government official told The Hill, requesting anonymity to discuss sensitive topics.

“This is oil of hybrid attacks. Without money, many things related to interference would not happen. People are paid to do things. If they are not paid, they are unlikely to participate in hybrid attacks.”

Standing up to Russia ‘has costs’

Russia’s campaign combines overt and covert spending, with hundreds of thousands of dollars spent on social media advertisements; an alleged contract campaign of promising monthly salaries for votes; bribes of food for votes; and promises of other payouts from Russia.  

The money spent in the 2023 elections for Gagauzia’s governor is a stark example of Russia’s power. 

In that election, the Shor-backed candidate Evgeniya Gutsul — who emerged out of political obscurity to win the governorship in runoff elections — spent more than $100,000 in the four weeks of campaigning, compared to the runner-up candidate who spent less than $50,000 in five weeks, according to an analysis by the news site Nokta. An estimated 60,000 people voted. 

Sandu, the president, has refused to recognize Gutsul’s win over charges of election fraud and irregularities. The U.S. sanctioned Gutsul in June as an alleged member of Shor’s criminal network. And on Oct. 14, the EU also sanctioned Gutsul, three of her staff and Shor’s Russian-based nongovernmental organization Evrazia.  

Moldovans are likely to reelect Sandu on Oct. 20, but the incumbent is facing deepening frustration over the slow pace of realizing the anti-corruption promises that brought her into power in 2020 and which gave her Party of Action and Solidarity an absolute majority in parliamentary elections in 2021. 

And even as Moldova has benefited from a free-trade agreement with the EU — remittances make up more than 12 percent of the country’s GDP (with the majority of Moldovan expats working in Europe) — support for Sandu and her government has fallen amid inflation linked to the fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing global recovery from pandemic shocks to the economy.

This has allowed fertile ground for Russian propaganda and vote-buying efforts to take root. Moldova’s national police announced earlier this month it had uncovered a Russian-financed plot to bribe 130,000 Moldovans to vote against the EU-referendum and support pro-Russia candidates in the presidential election.

“Standing up to a big country like Russia has costs for the Republic of Moldova and costs a lot,” said Andrei Curararu, co-founder of the think tank WatchDog.md and the initiative Citizens for Europe, which works to promote Moldova’s integration into the EU and push back against Russian disinformation and manipulation campaigns. 

“Because it’s too much of a pressure with not enough results that are being provided by the government.”

Support for EU high but anxiety remains

Sandu’s opponents criticize her for scheduling the referendum at the same time as the presidential election, describing it as a political ploy to build support for the parliamentary elections. 

A senior adviser to Sandu said the decision on the timing of the referendum is linked to prioritizing the government’s resources toward EU integration. 

“We face several challenges: if we want the people’s decision, we should seek it sooner rather than later,” the adviser told The Hill. “While I’m not suggesting that Russia will stop pressuring us once EU membership is in the constitution, it would be an important step to strengthen Moldova’s commitment to this path.”

But even others in the pro-Europe camp are critical of the combined vote. 

Presidential candidate Renato Usatii, the colorful and controversial former mayor of Bălți, Moldova’s second-largest city, said he’s boycotting the referendum over Sandu icing out other political parties in the decision to schedule the vote.

“To say ‘Guys, I organize the referendum,’ and in two weeks [then] you invite political parties [to participate], it’s the same as if I marry a woman and in two weeks I ask to talk to her parents [to ask their permission]. A little bit strange,” he said.

Usatii, who fluctuates between the second- and third-leading candidate behind Sandu with 12.7 percent in the polls, said he’s not encouraging his supporters to follow his lead, saying promoting a boycott would play into the Russian playbook. He has denounced Russian-election interference and the influence of Shor.

There are 11 candidates in total running in the presidential election, a few viewed as pro-Russian and favored by the Kremlin, but all polling far behind Sandu. 

It points to a race where Sandu is likely going to have to face the second-place candidate in a runoff election, perhaps a candidate whose fortunes have been boosted by the Kremlin. 

But on EU integration, support appears high, with more than 60 percent of those polled in September by WatchDog.md saying they are planning to vote in favor of the referendum. 

And more than half of those polled believe that disinformation and manipulation of public opinion by foreign actors contribute a lot to the “setback in Moldova.” 

Still, anxiety is high that such malign foreign influence could overwhelm efforts from government institutions and civil society organizations promoting democratic values and processes.

Russia has “never been so diverse and so liquid [flexible]. To some extent, that’s worrying me,” said Vadim Pistrinciuc, executive director of the Institute for Strategic Initiatives, and also a co-founder of the Citizens for Europe initiative. 

“If that will be the new reality for us, then I don’t know what type of institution we should have to stop this, or maybe we’ll get used to it. I don’t know, because we have never faced this type of meddling into our elections.”