Completely lifting Italy’s coronavirus lockdown would lead to an estimated peak of 150,000 COVID-19 patients in need of intensive care treatment by June and a total of 430,000 by the end of the year, a model by a group of experts advising the Italian government shows.
If just schools were open with all other measures remaining in place, the need for ICU beds would reach about 48,500 patients, the report from Italy’s technical scientific committee (CTS) shows.
Those numbers would overwhelm Italy’s ICU capacity of about 9,000 beds, according to BuzzFeed News.
The CTS report used a number of scenarios to analyze the rates of transmission for COVID-19 in specific subsets of the Italian economy, factoring different variables such as social contact, age group, as well as face mask use and social distancing practices.
The report found that economic activities could steadily reopen after the lockdown if people remain cognizant of social distancing, telework when able to, and monitor public contact.
Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said on Monday that a select number of restrictive measures imposed seven weeks ago would be relaxed starting on May 4, allowing factories, building sites and parks to reopen.
The measures announced by Conte are primarily in line with recommendations listed in the CTS report, according to BuzzFeed.
Conte’s plan will include the reopening of shops, museums and libraries, but not until mid-May.
In June, restaurants, bars and hairdressers may resume work. However, physical distancing measures remain in place along with limited public transport services, which will require everyone riding to wear masks.
Sports in Italy are not slated to resume after May 4, but athletes may resume training.