DHS warns of risks around Oct. 7, November election in annual threat assessment

The 2024 election and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East are among the elements contributing to a high threat level in the U.S. going into 2025, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) concluded in its annual threat assessment.

The report falls just days ahead of the first anniversary of the Oct. 7 attack Hamas carried out in Israel, sparking a war that has now expanded across the region.

“We are, of course, aware that that anniversary may add even more fuel to an already challenging and heightened threat environment,” a DHS official said on a call with reporters.

The official noted the risk to the Jewish and Muslim communities, citing expansion of the conflict into Lebanon and Iran’s recent strike against Israel.

“All of these factors contribute to a heightened threat environment, because at times, they are motivating factors that drive particular violent extremist groups to accelerate or plan to take action on a timeline that may not have been anticipated,” they added.

The annual assessment is otherwise in line with other long-term trends seen in the U.S.

Lone wolf actors and small groups continue to present the greatest terror risk within the U.S., influenced both by domestic and international developments.

“Over the next year, the terrorism threat environment in the Homeland will remain high. We are particularly concerned about a confluence of factors this year, including violent extremist responses to domestic sociopolitical developments — especially the 2024 election cycle — and international events that domestic and foreign violent extremists likely will use to justify or encourage attacks,” the report concluded. 

China, Russia and Iran remain among the U.S.’s greatest adversaries and most likely to target critical infrastructure as well as seek to undermine U.S. elections.

The three nations “will use a blend of subversive, undeclared, criminal, and coercive tactics to seek new opportunities to undermine confidence in US democratic institutions and domestic social cohesion,” the report states.

“Most concerningly, we expect the PRC [People’s Republic of China] to continue its efforts to pre-position on US networks for potential cyber attacks in the event of a conflict with the United States.”

The report builds on a series of warnings from the intelligence community about the trio’s election activities as well as various recent indictments handed down by the Justice Department.

That includes bringing charges against two RT employees, formerly known as Russia Today, for partnering with Tenet Media to pay influencers to promote Russia-backed narratives as well as the seizure of 32 fake news sites run by Russia.

The Department of Justice also recently indicted multiple Iranian operatives for hacking former President Trump’s campaign and attempted to disseminate the stolen materials.

Beyond influence efforts, the report warns of possible attacks, including violent ones against election officials, and the DHS official likewise warned countries could try and spread disinformation about voting processes, such as falsely claiming elections have been rescheduled.

It also references the assassination attempts against Trump, including a plot by Iran, saying the incidents “highlight the magnitude of the threat surrounding the election cycle.”

At the southern border, the report touts an increase in fentanyl seizures and a decline in recent border crossing figures, a trend ignited this summer as the Biden administration rolled out new limitations on seeking asylum.

The number of migrants flagged under the terror watch list has also risen and fallen in line with broader migration trends.

A DHS official noted, however, that the U.S. has seen shifts in the nationalities of people arriving at the border, with many beyond the western hemisphere now arriving in Latin America to then attempt to cross the border.

“Now, our border personnel encounter individuals from around the world, from all parts of the world, to include conflict zones and other areas where individuals may have links or can support ties to extremist or terrorist organizations that we have long standing concerns about,” the official said.

—Updated at 2:20 p.m.