Online polling could increase negatives in 2016

The expansion of online polling in recent years could be a negative for 2016 candidates. 

A study by Pew Research released Thursday found members of the public tend to be more willing to express a “very unfavorable” view of politicians when they are surveyed online, compared to questioned on the phone. 

{mosads}The share of people who view Hillary Clinton as “very unfavorable” increased 8 percentage points when polled online, compared to the phone. Sarah Palin’s negatives increased 13 percent, Michelle Obama’s increased 9 percent, George W. Bush’s increased 9 percent, Harry Reid’s increased 8 percent, and Mitch McConnell’s increased 5 percent. 

Pew found people are more likely to report increasingly negative views of politicians online if they are a member of the opposite party. For Clinton, 36 percent of Republicans gave her a “very unfavorable” rating when polled on the phone, but that number shot up to 53 percent online. 

The phenomenon has been noted in the past. Pew cited research that has found people tend to try and paint themselves in a positive or socially desirable light when talking to an interviewer on the phone. Research has also found that people might be motivated to choose answers that can avoid uncomfortable interactions with an interviewer. 

The study also suggested that those taking a poll online are less likely to say minority groups — like gays, Hispanics, blacks and women — face a lot of discrimination. The numbers are consistent with Democrats and Republicans. 

For example, when polled on the phone, 62 percent of people said they agreed that gay people face a lot of discrimination. When polled online, that number dropped to 48 percent. 

The survey group said there are tradeoffs with online polling. While online polling might get people to react more honestly about negative views, some portions of the population — like older or poorer populations — might be underrepresented as online polling increases.

“Altogether, our findings suggest that there may be advantages to online surveys, particularly if the survey seeks to measure topics that are sensitive or subject to social desirability because of the willingness of respondents to express more negative attitudes about their personal lives or toward political figures on the Web,” according to the report. 

The survey compared two sets of results from panels conducted last year. The group noted that, on average, the differences on a series of 60 questions were not that large.