District by district – Illinois

ILLINOIS-10

Democrat has big lead in seat long coveted by party

{mosads}The
third time may be the charm for Dan Seals and the Democrats. With
incumbent Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) running for Senate, Seals looks like
he might finally win this heavily Democratic district.

Seals
has a 12-point lead over Republican Robert Dold, 49 percent to 37.
Eleven percent of likely voters are undecided, according The Hill’s
2010 Midterm Election Poll.

It’s one of two districts The
Hill polled where Democrats are in the lead. Republicans lead in 19
districts, and the candidates were tied in a 20th race.

Voters
are split along party lines, with independents slightly favoring Seals,
42 percent to Dold’s 33. Seals also wins with male and female voters
and across all age groups.

President Obama easily carried
this district with 61 percent in 2008, and he gets a high approval
rating from voters: Fifty-six percent say he’s doing a good job. That
could help Seals, as 65 percent say the president is an important
factor in their vote.

Kirk’s district has been a longtime
Democratic target, and Seals came within 6 percent of beating him in
2006 and 2008. At one point, Seals was reported to be under
consideration for appointment to Obama’s Senate seat, a spot that
ultimately went to Roland Burris (D).

The NRCC has spent around $242,000 in this district, while the DCCC has spent about $271,000.

The
Hill’s poll was conducted Oct. 2-7, surveyed 405 likely voters via the
telephone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.