District by district – Pennsylvania

PENNSYLVANIA-08

Democratic incumbent leads over former GOP lawmaker

Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.) holds a three-point lead over Republican
candidate Michael Fitzpatrick, 46 percent to 43, with 10 percent of
likely voters undecided, in The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

{mosads}Murphy
is losing independent voters by five points, but he makes that up with
13 percent of Republican support. Fitzpatrick is only getting 8 percent
of Democratic support.

Murphy is also doing well among females, leading by 12 percent in that demographic. Fitzpatrick wins male voters.

Fitzpatrick, who represented the district for one term after winning
the 2004 election, has a high name ID, with only 8 percent of voters
saying they’re not familiar with him.

This could be a close race. The last time the two men faced one
another, in 2006, Murphy won by a little more than 1,500 votes. Voters
approve of the job he’s doing, with 53 percent giving him a favorable
rating to a 36 percent unfavorable. Fitzpatrick gets 50 percent
approval marks, with 35 percent rating him negatively.

Murphy won reelection in 2008 with 57 percent. He is the first Iraq
war veteran to serve in Congress and is one of its youngest members.
Vice President Joe Biden has campaigned for him.

Republicans are investing in defeating Murphy. The NRCC has spent about $204,000 in independent expenditures in the district.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 9-12. The
survey consisted of 398 phone interviews among likely voters and has a
margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

PENNSYLVANIA-10

Another race all tied up

This is the second race The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll found to be in a tie.

Blue Dog Rep. Chris Carney (D-Pa.) and Republican Thomas Marino both
receive 41 percent, with 16 percent of likely voters undecided.

And
Carney is getting 13 percent of the Republican vote in this GOP-leaning
district. Independents also favor the incumbent, with Carney receiving
49 percent of their support to Marino’s 30.

In a twist from the other districts, the Democratic Carney is
leading among male voters, while the Republican Marino is leading with
female voters.

Younger voters are breaking for Carney, but the race gets tighter
with middle-aged and older voters. Middle-aged voters are split 39-39
on whom to support, while Marino leads by one point among older voters.

Both President Obama and Congress get low marks from voters in this
district: Fifty-nine percent disapprove of the job the president is
doing, while 80 percent disapprove of the job Congress is doing.

And 42 percent say Obama has brought change to Washington “for the
worse,” while 23 percent say it’s “for the better” and 31 percent say
nothing has changed.

Carney voted for the healthcare reform bill, but made sure the
legislation didn’t contain government funding of abortions. He has not
shied away from his ties to the administration. Vice President Biden
has been to Pennsylvania to campaign for him.

He was listed as vulnerable in 2008 but won reelection with 56
percent of the vote. The NRCC has spent about $674,000 in independent
expenditures, while the DCCC has spent around $182,000.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 12-14. The
survey consisted of 406 phone interviews among likely voters and has a
margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.