District by district – New York

NEW YORK-19

All tied up

This is the first of two races The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll found to be in a tie.

{mosads}Rep. John Hall (D-N.Y.) and his GOP challenger, Nan Hayworth, both
received 43 percent of the vote, with 12 percent of likely voters
undecided.

Hall leads by five points among women while Hayworth leads by five
among men. Independents are breaking for Hayworth, with the
ophthalmologist receiving 50 percent of their vote to Hall’s 35
percent. And 13 percent of independents are undecided.

Hall
is doing well among Republican voters — he gets 12 percent of their
support, while Hayworth only gets 9 percent of Democratic support. Hall
also leads with younger voters and older voters, while Hayworth does
better among middle-aged voters.

President Obama barely won this district in 2008, and only 42
percent approve of the job he’s doing, while 55 percent disapprove. And
79 percent disapprove of the job Congress is doing.

Thirty-five percent of voters couldn’t come up with a compelling
reason to vote for Democrats in November, while 27 percent said the
same of Republicans.

Hall voted for the trifecta of legislation the GOP is attacking
Democrats for supporting: cap-and-trade; healthcare reform; and the
economic stimulus.

Fifty-one percent of voters in this district said they think the Democratic leadership in Congress is to the left of them.

Hall won reelection in 2008 with a comfortable 59 percent.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 12-14. The
survey consisted of 416 phone interviews among likely voters and has a
margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percent.

NEW YORK-24

Dem incumbent leads in 2008 rematch

Republican Richard Hanna lost to Rep. Michael Arcuri (D-N.Y.) by four
points in 2008, and now he trails Arcuri by 10 points in The Hill 2010
Midterm Election Poll.

Arcuri receives 47 percent to Hanna’s 37, with 15 percent of likely
voters undecided. Arcuri posts strong numbers among Republicans — he
gets 19 percent of their support — and does well with independents,
getting 46 percent of their support to Hanna’s 27. Arcuri has a
17-point lead among females and a four-point lead among males. He also
posts strong numbers with young and older voters, while Hanna does well
among middle-aged voters.

Arcuri
benefits from high favorability  ratings: Fifty-two percent approve of
the job he’s doing, compared to 29 percent who disapprove. And Hanna,
despite being the 2008 nominee, has low name ID: Seventeen percent of
voters said they weren’t familiar with him.

One thing apparently not hurting Arcuri is Congress’s approval
ratings, which are dismal in this district: Only 22 percent approve of
the job it’s doing, while 74 percent disapprove.

The NRCC has spent about $217,000 in independent expenditures, while the DCCC has spent around $499,000.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 12-14. The
survey consisted of 400 phone interviews among likely voters and has a
margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.