How the Roe v. Wade generation is bringing the fight to 2022

The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade is striking a nerve among a generation of abortion rights activists who witnessed the court establish historic protections for the medical procedure in the early 1970s, only to find them stripped away decades later.

For Heather Booth, who was in her late 20s when the Supreme Court handed down its landmark 1973 decision, the high court’s decision to reverse course this past June was an especially painful one.

“Nearly 80 percent of the American public currently don’t think that a politician should come between a woman and her doctor and especially with no exceptions in many places. So this is an extremism that is against the will of the American public, and it is horrifying to the American public,” she said.

Booth, who founded an underground abortion service provider known as the “Service” or “Janes” in the 1960s while at the University of Chicago, told The Hill that the fight for abortion access is “in some way” still the same fight activists were fighting 50 years ago.

“Before Roe was the law of the land, the septic abortion wards in many hospitals where women who had either done damage to themselves or went to someone who harmed them was common,” she said.

However, Booth noted that the U.S. could see an uptick in similar, life-threatening situations for women where they resort to “desperate measures” as a consequence of the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

“Women putting their lives in danger is a consequence of what happens when something is illegal,” she added.

Over the past few months, stories of a 10-year-old girl in Ohio traveling to Indiana to get an abortion and a woman in Louisiana, pregnant with a skull-less fetus, who was forced to travel to New York to undergo the medical procedure have been covered in the news.

Such stories have demonstrated the health implications that patients are finding over recent months as at least 13 states had “trigger laws” go into effect which restricted access to the medical procedure.

But what is less clear are the political implications of the Supreme Court’s ruling. According to TargetSmart CEO Tom Bonier, previous election cycles have not seen this pattern of women registering to vote and in increasingly higher rates as the election approaches.

“But that’s exactly what you have this year. You have almost every state, with just a few exceptions, seeing women accounted for a larger share of new registrants as we get closer to the election. There isn’t a precedent for that,” Bonier, a Democratic strategist, told The Hill.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean the abortion ruling is the driving force for all female voters or the only matter at play. It’s also unclear how voters will weigh issues like abortion among other issues like inflation and the economy, crime and border security or if those registration numbers will translate to actual votes in November.

Moreover, the issue of abortion is nuanced and complicated among voters. The U.S. has a patchwork of different laws, with some states having their own abortion rights codified while other states are seeing abortion restrictions already in place or being litigated. And there’s a spectrum of thought in how voters, including women, align with the issue, even within their own political party.

For some women, the Supreme Court’s decision was seen as a source of relief, believing that the issue should be tackled at the state level. Some personally opposed the medical procedure.

GOP strategist Saul Anuzis suggested the new women registering to vote were both those who supported abortion rights and those who opposed them. He cautioned against using a broad brush when discussing how abortion could impact the political landscape but suggested, “I don’t think it’s anywhere near as driving of an issue as some of the other issues that are in front of the American people today.”

But other Republican strategists disagree. Arizona-based GOP strategist Chuck Coughlin suggested it could have a larger impact on women in his state while acknowledging that there’s a number of issues voters will be weighing in November.

“You have large cohorts of voters who have grown up under Roe, particularly older women, who, you know, that was part of their doctrinaire experience. And so, this is a major sea change to a significant part of the electorate, older women voters. And, you know, we’re seeing that in the datasets that are coming forth from this cycle,” he said.

Indeed, older voters will play a serious role in the midterms given that they head to the polls in significantly larger numbers than any other age group.

In the 2018 midterm elections, 56 percent of voters ages 45 to 59 and 66 percent of voters 60 and older cast ballots. That compares to a 33 percent turnout among those ages 18 to 29. Data from many states also shows that women are out-registering men for the 2022 midterms.

A majority of female voters aged 50 and over, about 94 percent, say they are certain they will vote next month, according to a new AARP poll released this week.

However, the poll also noted that 51 percent are undecided when it comes to the candidates they’ll be backing. Abortion was considered among the top issues for Democratic women aged 50 and older. Fifty-four percent of Democratic women cited abortion as a top issue for them, which was eclipsed by other issues such as voting rights at 63 percent, threats to democracy at 62 percent and gun violence at 54 percent.

But the survey found that abortion wasn’t listed as among the top issues for either Republican women or independent women in the same age group.

Amanda Matos, senior director of constituency campaigns at Planned Parenthood Votes, noted that young voters are also energized by the issue.

“What I was able to predict over the summer is still true now, that abortion is dominating this election cycle. And not only are young people motivated to vote, young people are also more motivated to talk to their own family and friends about abortion rights to make sure that the people in their lives are voting for and electing reproductive rights champions,” she said.