Indecisiveness among older voters a wild card in final campaign stretch

Older voters are likely to once again come out in force in this year’s midterms, but how a broad swath of them will vote remains a mystery.

An AARP poll released earlier this month found their motivation to vote remains high, but only 49 percent of women aged 50 or older and 48 percent of men in the same age group have determined who they will vote for in November.

That suggests candidates can still sway millions of older Americans’ votes as the midterm campaign season enters the final stretch, perhaps shifting the outcomes of key races.

“The biggest bloc of swing voters for both parties is women over 50 who are still undecided, frustrated that candidates are not in touch with their lives and looking to hear that elected officials will protect social security from cuts,” said Celinda Lake, founder of polling firm Lake Research Partners, which conducted the AARP survey.

Most of those older Americans still making up their minds plan to do so sooner rather than later, AARP’s survey indicates.

Nearly half of that group said they will make a decision “several weeks” before the election. Increasingly smaller proportions said they would do so “several days” beforehand and on Election Day itself.

The timing of those decisions come as battleground candidates release a barrage of advertisements on issues that polled highly among older Americans, such as threats to democracy, inflation and Social Security.

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) released an ad earlier this month attacking his Republican opponent, Blake Masters, for previously saying he would privatize Social Security, a position he has since backed away from but one that has led to a barrage of attacks.

Pennsylvania Senate Republican nominee Mehmet Oz recently released a spot tying Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, the Democratic nominee, to high inflation, saying Fetterman’s plans would raise taxes and cut jobs.

With those two contests and a few other close races in the Senate potentially making or breaking Republican attempts to flip the chamber, how older Americans perceive those messages may prove to be a major factor in the final stage of the campaign.

“Neither party can say they have ‘won’ the votes of women over 50 yet,” said Christine Matthews, president of Bellwether Research, another firm involved in the survey.

“Older women are evenly divided on the generic ballot and 2 in 5 say they will make their final decision in the remaining weeks,” she continued. “They will be watching messaging on Social Security and many will be focused on threats to democracy and gun violence, while others will more closely track inflation and rising prices.”

Older Americans’ indecisiveness — and the issues they cared most about — also varied among racial and ethnic groups, according to the AARP poll.

Although about half of women aged 50 and older said they have yet to make up their mind about who to vote for in November, that figure surged to about three-quarters of Hispanic and Latina women within that age group and two-thirds of older Asian American and Pacific Islander women.

Even among groups that typically support one party over another, majorities indicate they are still making their voting decisions.

Older Black women, who historically support Democrats, appear favored to do so once again, with about 8 in 10 saying they support a Democratic candidate on a generic congressional ballot.

But just 41 percent of respondents in that group said they have already decided who they will vote for.

Division in the country topped the list of most important issues for older Black women, outpacing many other similarly aged racial groups.

Inflation and rising prices, meanwhile, was ranked the most important issue by older Asian American and Pacific Islander women.

But despite an 18-point gap when compared to similarly aged women of all racial groups, a solid majority of Asian American and Pacific Islander women said the economy is working well for them. Just half of older women from all racial backgrounds said so.

However they vote, older Americans are likely to have a disproportionate voice in November. 

About 81.6 million people aged 50 and older voted in 2020, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates. The group comprised 53 percent of the electorate, despite making up just 47 percent of the U.S. population that was old enough to vote at the time.

That increased turnout is on par with historical trends, and there’s no sign this year will be much different.

In the most recent midterm elections in 2018, 63.8 percent of Americans 65 years and older turned out to vote, according to census data. Turnout rates declined along with age, with just 3 in 10 Americans aged between 18 and 24 showing up to the polls.

In the AARP poll surveying this year’s electorate, more than 8 in 10 voters over 50 said their motivation to vote was a 10 out of 10, while very few gave low ratings.