Kremlin faces ‘deeply unstable equilibrium’: think tank

The Kremlin is facing a “deeply unstable equilibrium” after Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin committed to overthrowing Russian military leadership, according to a new think tank report.

“The Kremlin now faces a deeply unstable equilibrium,” the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in an assessment released Saturday. The deal negotiated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to let Prigozhin travel to Belarus without facing criminal charges in Russia is “a short-term fix, not a long-term solution, and Prigozhin’s rebellion exposed severe weaknesses in the Kremlin and Russian [Ministry of Defense],” the group wrote. 

Prigozhin, who heads the private Russian military contractor organization, called on Friday for an armed uprising to oust Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and denounced Moscow’s justification for its war on Kyiv. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin promised to put down the “armed mutiny” and the Russian National Anti-Terrorism Committee opened a criminal investigation into Prigozhin.

A day later, Prigozhin ordered Wagner Group forces to stop their advance on Moscow, after the Belarus government assisted in negotiating a settlement between Prigozhin and Russian leadership.

“Suggestions that Prigozhin’s rebellion, the Kremlin’s response, and Lukashenko’s mediation were all staged by the Kremlin are absurd. The imagery of Putin appearing on national television to call for the end of an armed rebellion and warning of a repeat of the 1917 revolution – and then requiring mediation from a foreign leader to resolve the rebellion – will have a lasting impact,” the ISW report reads.

“The optics of Belarusian President Lukashenko playing a direct role in halting a military advance on Moscow are humiliating to Putin and may have secured Lukashenko other benefits.”

The Wagner Group has been involved in some of Russia’s deadliest battles amid the yearlong war on Ukraine. The ISW also predicts the agreement in the wake of the rebellion will “very likely eliminate” the Wagner Group “as a Prigozhin-led independent actor in its current form.”