Garvey now in statistical tie with Schiff in California Senate race: Poll

Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Republican candidate Steve Garvey are now in a statistical tie in California’s nonpartisan Senate primary, polling released Friday shows.

The poll from the Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) at the University of California, Berkeley found Garvey with 27 percent support and Schiff at 25 percent.

Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) came in outside of the top-two with 19 percent, while Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) trailed with just 8 percent.

In California’s nonpartisan primary system, the top two vote-getters will advance to a runoff in November, regardless of party affiliation. The candidates are looking to fill the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s (D) vacancy, which is currently being filled by temporary appointee Sen. Laphonza Butler (D).

Schiff, who has been leading in other polling over the last few weeks, has appeared to try to elevate Garvey — since spectators say a Democrat-Republican showdown would be easier for Schiff to win than a battle between lawmakers in the same party.

The Berkeley IGS poll notes a “large increase” in support for Garvey over the last several weeks, and he fares even better in the partial-term race on the California ballot.

Schiff, Porter, Garvey and Lee are running both for a full term in the Senate that starts in January 2025, and also for a partial term to take over from Butler between this November and the start of the next term.

Garvey boasts the lead in the partial term race, according to the Berkeley IGS poll, with 29 percent to Schiff’s 23 percent, followed by Porter at 20 percent. That boost appears to be due to fewer Republican names on the partial-term ballot compared to the full-term ballot, the poll notes.

California is seeing notably low turnout for the primary, just days before Super Tuesday, and data indicates it’s predominantly older Californians casting ballots at this point.

The Berkeley IGS poll found nearly two-thirds of the likely electorate were 50 or older, tripling the number of voters under 40.

“Garvey is the chief beneficiary in a low turnout election scenario, as he holds a huge advantage over the field among fellow Republicans and both he and Schiff are the two most preferred candidates among older voters, whites, and homeowners,” the poll release reads.

The poll was conducted Feb. 22-27 among 6,536 California registered voters, of which 3,304 had already voted or were likely to vote. The estimated sampling error is approximately plus or minus 2 percentage points.