The final odds in the Harris veepstakes

Excitement and rumor are at their apex just hours before Vice President Harris is expected to announce her choice of running mate.

Harris and her vice presidential nominee will soon begin a rapid tour of six of the seven states that are likely to determine the election. The first event on that itinerary is in Philadelphia on Tuesday, but the Harris campaign has pushed back on the idea that the location presages the choice of Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate.

Harris campaign spokesperson Kevin Munoz also refuted reports that the candidate had made her choice as of late Monday afternoon.

“We understand the excitement and interest here, but VP Harris has made no decision on a running mate yet!” Munoz wrote on social media.

It’s of course possible that Harris could blindside the political world with an unexpected pick. 

But three men cited as front-runners met with her at her Washington residence on Sunday: Shapiro, Sen. Mark Kelly (Ariz.) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

Others rumored to be in contention include Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

Here’s a guide to where the veepstakes stands right now, including our odds on the top candidates.

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro

Criticism from progressive Democrats doesn’t negate the one massive factor that favors Shapiro: his popularity in a home state that is the biggest battleground in November’s election.

Shapiro beat Republican Doug Mastriano, who had been endorsed by former President Trump, by 15 points in the governor’s race less than two years ago.

An Emerson College poll for The Hill late last month showed Shapiro winning the approval of 49 percent of Pennsylvanians while just 31 percent disapproved.

If a Harris-Shapiro ticket were to carry Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral college votes, it would be a massive step toward winning the White House.

The big vulnerability for Shapiro is his rhetoric around the conflict in Gaza. He has drawn parallels between pro-Palestinian protesters and the Ku Klux Klan.

If Harris chooses Shapiro, her political honeymoon will end amid criticism from progressives. But the potential prize of Pennsylvania might be just too big to ignore.

The Hill’s odds: Even money.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz

Walz is the leading example in this year’s veepstakes of a politician who can be around for years only to find their moment and become an overnight sensation.

The Minnesota governor, who previously served six terms in Congress, has thrilled Democrats with his forceful attacks on Republicans since President Biden announced his decision to step aside. 

In particular, his charge that the Trump-era GOP is “just weird” has resonated with liberal voters.

The Minnesota governor’s basic appeal is that of a bluff, rural Midwesterner who could be a formidable campaign-trail presence. 

He is plainly the favored choice of the party’s progressive wing, having appeared more empathetic to pro-Palestinian protesters than Shapiro. His record also includes vigorous defenses of voting rights and reproductive rights.

But the enthusiasm of the left toward him could backfire, in a sense, if Harris favors someone who appeals primarily to voters in the center ground. 

The Hill’s odds: 2-1

Sen. Mark Kelly (Ariz.)

By Monday, there was chatter in Washington and in Democratic circles that Kelly’s star might be fading.

But Beltway conventional wisdom is often wrong.

The pro-Kelly case has three main pillars. 

First, he is from a battleground state, albeit one with 11 electoral college votes to Pennsylvania’s 19. 

Second, he has favored tougher policies on the border than many others in his party — something that might inure Harris a bit on a key weakness. 

Third, he has a compelling biography as a former Navy pilot and astronaut, and as the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-Ariz.), who was gravely injured in a 2011 shooting.

But Kelly faces some resistance from organized labor, in part because of his reluctance to co-sponsor the Protecting the Right to Organize Act.

There are also some fears that Kelly might lack the dynamism of some other contenders for the job.

The Hill’s odds: 5-2

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear

Beshear could come through the middle as a choice that would not overly antagonize either progressives or centrists within the Democratic coalition.

Beshear’s main asset is his capacity to win in a deep-red state. Last year, he won reelection with 53 percent of the vote in a state Biden lost by roughly 26 points.

Beshear is just 46, which would put an even sharper point on the idea that the Democratic ticket, now shorn of the 81-year-old Biden, would offer a generational change. Trump is 78 whereas Harris is 59.

Beshear’s youth may go against him if there is any fear that he is just too untested, however.

The Hill’s odds: 3-1

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg

Buttigieg’s network of supporters has been vigorously pushing him for the job.

They point in particular to Buttigieg’s undoubted media skills. He has been especially effective at carrying the Democratic message to Fox News, winning himself liberal fans in the process.

Buttigieg ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020, outperforming expectations but never really looking like he could win.

But Buttigieg struggled badly with Black voters during that process, and detractors note he has never been elected to statewide office or even to a congressional seat. He is the former mayor of South Bend, Ind.

There is also another factor to consider. The demands of realpolitik may weigh against Harris — vying to become the first Black female president — choosing a gay man as her running mate.

The Hill’s odds: 5-1