Alaska Republicans unite to defeat Peltola

Alaska Republicans are looking to avoid a repeat of the 2022 midterms, when they lost the state’s lone House seat to Rep. Mary Peltola (D) after the party failed to coalesce around a single opponent in the Last Frontier’s ranked-choice system.

Peltola finished first in this week’s top-four nonpartisan primary, followed by Republicans Nick Begich and Lt. Gov Nancy Dahlstrom (R), according to the latest tallies from Decision Desk HQ. But Dahlstrom, backed by former President Trump, bowed out of the race Friday as her party looks to consolidate support. 

“I entered this race because Alaskans deserve better representation than what we have received from Mary Peltola in Washington,” Dahlstrom said in a statement shared to the social platform X. “At this time, the best thing I can do to see that goal realized is to withdraw my name from the general election ballot and end my campaign.” 

Dahlstrom’s exit comes two years after the midterms, when the ranked-choice system debuted and Peltola flipped the seat blue for the first time in decades in a special election to fill out the rest of the late Rep. Don Young’s (R) term. She went on to win a full term that fall, over a GOP divided between Begich and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who criticized the voting setup as confusing. 

Despite the ranked-choice setup, many Begich and Palin supporters didn’t rank the other GOP contender as their second pick, or left their second-choice slot blank, according to an analysis from Cook Political Report.

Just a day before dropping out, Dahlstrom had said in a video interview shared to X that she still saw a path to winning the seat, and shrugged off the suggestion that having two strong GOP candidates would be a liability for the party. But some Republicans were pushing hard to consolidate support behind one contender. 

“Alaska is a red state, and Nick will win with a united GOP behind him. Nancy Dahlstrom ran a strong race, but she should drop out so we can beat radical Democrat Mary Peltola,” Florida Rep. Byron Donalds (R), a Trump ally, wrote Thursday. 

Begich, after the primary, urged that the party “must unite as conservatives” and argued the ranked-choice system “only benefits the Democrats.” On Friday, he praised Dahlstrom upon her campaign suspension, touting a “unified” party push to oust the incumbent Democrat. 

House Republicans’ campaign arm has targeted the Alaska seat as an “offensive pickup” opportunity this fall and named Dahlstrom to its “Young Guns” list just last month, a program that mentors candidates in vital races. But National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) Chair Richard Hudson (N.C.) nevertheless lauded Dahlstrom for her exit. 

“Nancy Dahlstrom has led a life of service, and I want to thank her for stepping into the arena this year. Her selfless decision today puts Alaskans and the team first, allowing voters to unite around a single Republican,” Hudson said in a statement shared with The Hill. “Alaska has a great choice in Nick Begich — working together we will retire Mary Peltola this fall.”

The Hill has reached out to Peltola’s campaign for comment. 

This year marks just the second cycle under Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, and while proponents say Alaskans understand the relatively new system, some top GOP names have sharply criticized the process. Trump called the system “a total rigged deal” in 2022, and Palin panned it as “crazy, convoluted [and] confusing” after her loss. This year, a proposal aimed at reversing the recent changes looks on track to qualify for the ballot this fall. 

Under ranked-choice voting, the top four candidates — reshuffled after Dahlstrom’s exit — will advance from the “pick one” nonpartisan primary, regardless of affiliation. In November’s general election, voters will order their top picks by preference. If no candidate gets more than 50 percent of first-choice votes, the candidate with the fewest first-choice votes gets eliminated, and their votes are redistributed according to those voters’ second preference. The race goes into subsequent rounds of counting until a winner emerges with a majority. 

In theory, the system helps eliminate vote-splitting and potential “spoiler” candidates, said Alaska-based Republican strategist Robert Dillon, who was involved in advocating for the 2020 ballot measure that implemented ranked-choice voting. “But if they don’t pick a second choice, then that support doesn’t transfer to the next candidate.” 

Dahlstrom’s exit helps make things “cleaner” for the GOP, said Anchorage-based Republican political consultant Matthew Shuckerow. Now, Begich can run “essentially a head-to-head race” against Peltola. 

“It’s been fairly clear from the beginning: Two Republicans running against a Democrat would have been a very tough path to victory,” he said, adding that there’s “plenty of time” for the party to coalesce around Begich. 

Republicans, though, still have an uphill battle in their efforts to unseat Peltola, a rare Democrat representing a state that went to Trump in both 2016 and 2020. 

Observers attribute her success in Alaska to her positioning as a moderate focused on state-specific issues, and she’s carefully distanced herself from the Democratic establishment amid the White House race shake-up. She was one of several vulnerable Democrats who skipped the party convention this week, where Vice President Harris accepted the White House nomination. 

Though Alaska is all but guaranteed to pick Trump again in the presidential race, Cook Political Report nevertheless rates Peltola’s seat as “lean Democrat.” Notably, more than half of all voters aren’t registered with a major political party.

Tuesday’s primary results are a promising sign for the Democrat. With 80 percent of ballots counted, Peltola snagged 50 percent of the vote, followed by Begich with 27 percent and Dahlstrom with 20 percent. The rest of the candidates all clocked in at below 1 percentage point. 

“Her team can feel good about their operation,” said Alaska-based strategist John-Henry Heckendorn. “But the stakes are still very high for the general.” 

Heckendorn also argued the primary results shouldn’t be looked at as a predictor of how ballots will be cast in November, adding that Peltola has “definitely still got her work cut out for her” as Election Day nears.

For one, the primary race saw low turnout — around 16 percent, according to unofficial results from the state — in an election year lacking a marquee Senate or gubernatorial race, both of which helped energize voters in the midterms. 

This fall, though, voters will also be weighing in on the White House battle, with Trump and Harris at the top of the ticket, which could juice turnout and mean the general electorate looks different than those who showed up for the August contest. 

“The primary looks great, Peltola should feel good,” said Amy Lauren Lovecraft, a professor of political science at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. “But then she has to pivot and capture all of these other folks who didn’t vote in the primaries and who are not affiliated with either party.”