Graham’s 2016 home state hurdle

Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-S.C.) surprising presidential flirtation does not mean he is a lock to win his state’s crucial early primary. 

The independent-minded Republican could freeze several big South Carolina consultants in the state and inject a foreign policy message into the conversation if he does run. 

But winning over the national GOP and even detractors in the Palmetto State could be a tough task.

“I think people were very excited to send him back to the U.S. Senate, but it might be a mistake to read that as support for a presidential candidacy,” Jim Dyke, a Republican strategist in South Carolina, told The Hill.

{mosads}“It’s kind of like giving the guy that puts in your air conditioner a top-notch rating and he comes back around and says, ‘I’m also going to do your sinks.’  You say, ‘Wait a minute, that’s a different job.’ ”

But Graham’s allies insist that he’d be a strong contender if he takes the plunge. Richard Quinn, a long-time Graham adviser, told The Hill that Graham’s hawkish national security stance would make him stand out in an otherwise crowded field. 

“I think his exploring this candidacy is being driven by his commitment to national security issues,” Quinn said.  

“He thinks the country is at a real critical point now in terms of keeping America safe, and the war against radical Islam. He wants his views and beliefs and understanding and what he thinks should be done to be in the narrative of the presidential cycle in 2016.”

Even though Graham first mentioned the idea of running for president late last year, many GOP observers were taken aback when he took concrete steps this week, forming a committee to test the waters for a bid. The fact that the committee in question is named “Strength Through Security” underlines the theme that would undoubtedly become central to any Graham campaign. 

Graham has some big Palmetto State names on his side already. David Wilkins, the state chairman of President George W. Bush’s 2004 reelection campaign and a former state House Speaker, is leading Graham’s test committee. The Columbia State newspaper reported Wilkins hosted the group’s first fundraiser on Friday.

State Sen. John Courson, a former Reagan delegate and a Republican leader in the state Senate, also told The Hill that he’d back Graham.  

Quinn said that he’s spoken to Graham about his flirtation with the presidency “several times” and that the senator told him he planned to make a decision around April or May. But, he added, many South Carolina Republicans are already in Graham’s corner.

Supporters say Graham’s independent streak and willingness to cross the aisle to work on issues such as immigration could be his greatest strength. 

Former Rep. Bob Inglis (R-S.C.), who served six terms in the House, told The Hill that he believes the end of the Great Recession provides a “break out opportunity” for a solutions-minded candidate to win. Inglis lost his primary reelection in 2010 to Tea Party favorite Rep. Trey Gowdy. 

“Tell us what’s going to work, reposition the Grumpy Old Party as the Grand Opportunity Party,” he said. “I think that Lindsey is the kind of guy that is a happy, optimistic fellow.”

But that streak has also caused Graham to be viewed with unease by some within the GOP. Various county parties have censured Graham over the years for a perceived lack of conservative chops. And conservative commentators like Michelle Malkin and Rush Limbaugh have chided him with the nickname “Lindsey Grahmnesty,” a reference to his stance on immigration reform.

“There are a lot of them that don’t see him as a real Republican,” Danielle Vinson, the chairwoman of the Furman University political science department, told The Hill. 

“It’s the image that’s out there so he’s got to get past that with primary voters, and that’s not always easy to do.” 

Graham mended those fences in 2014 and pulled off a decisive win in the GOP primary against a slew of lesser-known competitors who tried to outflank him on the right. Joel Sawyer, a former South Carolina state GOP executive director, told The Hill that the primary results “speak for themselves” and highlight Graham’s strengths.

“The thing that a lot of people forget about him, having been a sitting senator and having been someone who you typically may see on TV in that Washington setting, he is an incredible grassroots politician,” he said. 

“He’s great on the stump, he’s great on the grassroots level.”

But the presidential stump is a different ballgame, and voters would have their pick of many qualified candidates. 

Jim Dyke said it “remains to be seen” whether Graham could compete on the national fundraising circuit with big names in the Republican Party such as Sens. Ted Cruz (Texas), Marco Rubio (Fla.) and Rand Paul (Ky.), as well as former Gov. Jeb Bush (Fla.) and current Govs. Scott Walker (Wis.) and Chris Christie (N.J.).  

Republican consultant Matt Mackowiak said that Graham may be trying to draw contrasts with other potential candidates, especially on foreign policy. 

“Lindsey Graham, if he runs, would do so almost solely to counter what he sees as Rand Paul’s dangerous foreign policy viewpoint,” he said in an email.  

“He has media savvy and would be a favorite for the S.C. primary, but he is not a threat to be the nominee.”

Vinson added that Graham might want to provide cover for other candidates such as Jeb Bush, helping move the GOP conversation closer to the middle ground on issues including immigration.

“Maybe this is an effort to shape the conversation and the direction of the party as much as it is about Lindsey Graham trying to be president,” she said.