Democrats are waiting in anticipation for Republicans to make what many believe will be a Trump-inspired spectacle of their first presidential primary debate.
While some are waiting to see former President Trump’s imprint on the Milwaukee event he’s notoriously skipping, others are watching for breakout moments among a less well-defined set of candidates.
And most in the party expect to see a right-wing agenda on full display.
Here are five things Democrats are looking out for Wednesday night.
The Trump effect
Even though Trump won’t physically be there to dominate the conversation and dress down his rivals on the public stage, that doesn’t mean the GOP front-runner won’t still loom over the night.
Democrats have watched Trump lead the Republican primary polls among loyal voters who say they still like him more than anyone else. And while liberals point to his various impeachments and indictments as political landmines, they also haven’t seen him tank his White House job audition just yet.
The debates add some unpredictability to all of that. The earliest debates gave Trump a major platform to crucify his biggest threats eight years ago, setting him on the path to the nomination without much trouble.
While so much has changed since August 2015, it’s unclear how much Trump will be impacted by his absence on stage this time. Voters will have a chance to hear eight other contenders make their presidential pitches, but he’s unlikely to fade into the background.
“Whether [Trump’s] on the stage or not, his extreme agenda will be,” Biden campaign co-Chair Cedric Richmond said Tuesday. “And, the only thing that will be missing is the chaos, the disruption, the bullying, the name calling of former President Trump.”
Breakout moment
Several candidates would benefit from a breakout moment to properly introduce themselves to voters. Democrats are already speculating about who might steal the night.
Vivek Ramaswamy, a young former pharma executive, has attracted early attention for his scrappy and straight-talking approach to ultra-conservative politics. He has already piqued interest from some parts of the primary electorate for offering a fresh take on Trumpism. He’s even used words meant to signify objectivity like “truth” to push a right-wing platform in a similar Trump fashion.
But Ramaswamy is not the only name Democrats are keeping an eye on. Other primary newcomers like South Carolina Republicans Sen. Tim Scott and Nikki Haley, the former governor, are also looking to have memorable performances by being less like Trump in their demeanor.
Other Democrats are more interested in seeing how a Republican who’s already been in the Oval Office — former Vice President Mike Pence — fares without his former boss. Some are curious to see how Trump’s prior No. 2, who has since notably refuted his position on the Jan. 6. insurrection, handles the debate around the 2020 election.
“Most people know what to expect from [Florida Gov. Ron] DeSantis, [former New Jersey Gov. Chris] Christie, etc., but I’m curious to see Pence’s performance,” said Max Burns, a progressive strategist and media commentator. “I think the Pence campaign is still not entirely sure who they are talking to.”
“He’s sort of the forgotten man,” Burns added. “You’d be forgiven for not thinking this is the former vice president.”
Is DeSantis done?
Even before the election cycle kicked off, Democrats and Republicans alike viewed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as a potential formidable challenger to Trump to win the nomination.
But within just a few weeks, DeSantis’s campaign has severely struggled to catch on. He’s already had several staff shake-ups and has failed to bring in the kind of donor enthusiasm that many expected would follow the governor.
“DeSantis’s own strategy documents show he’s fighting for second place, which might as well spell the end of his hopes if they are so openly admitting that,” Burns said.
Democrats are now turning their focus on DeSantis’s sometimes stilted public persona — another weak point that they say has affected his bid.
“He’s a horrible debater,” Democratic strategist Michael Starr Hopkins said. “He’s extremely scripted and stiff. The field is going to pile on him.”
Democrats have seen DeSantis appear shaky on stage in prior performances, and some are waiting to see if he continues in that form or is able to loosen up around his opponents.
“How he responds will tell you everything about him,” Starr Hopkins said. “I expect him [to] be extremely frustrated and have horrible body language.”
DeSantis has also been going back and forth recently with Vice President Harris over new education standards in Florida for teaching the history of slavery, a hot-button topic that is likely to come up during the live event. The governor has been Harris’s enemy No. 1 in the GOP primary and the vice president recently went to Florida to bash the standards, prompting DeSantis to invite her to their own debate, which Harris refused.
While DeSantis is doubling down on culture wars, his polling numbers aren’t improving and Democrats are intent on making teaching standards a winning issue for their side.
The GOP’s agenda
Democrats will be also watching for how much of the Republican platform shared among contenders is written by Trump.
“It doesn’t matter who wins the debate, they’ve chosen a losing strategy and that strategy is to be as extreme, as MAGA, and as out of touch with the American people as possible,” Richmond said.
Richmond telegraphed that Democrats expect to hear from the GOP candidates about how they want to cut Social Security and taxes on big companies and rich Americans, and continue to push an extreme position on abortion.
“As they race to the right to secure a far-right base, they’re nailing themselves to positions that they just cannot recover from in November for the general election,” he said.
The Biden campaign will be focused on responding to those MAGA views, referring to Trump’s Make America Great Again campaign slogan from 2016 that has stuck with him and Democrats have used to brand other Republicans.
The campaign will have “an aggressive war room” with the Democratic National Committee (DNC), it announced last week.
The head of the DNC has also bashed all the candidates expected to appear on stage Wednesday, linking them with the former president and his conservative brand. DNC Chair Jaime Harrison called the contenders who qualified through the Republican National Committee’s guidelines “the most extreme slate of presidential candidates in history” and said that they will take the stage “to out-MAGA each other.”
A Christie do-over?
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is trying to distinguish himself as Trump’s main agitator — the candidate who wants to call him out by name loudly and often.
Christie, who ran for president once before, knows what it’s like to be on stage with then-candidate Trump and wants to make it clear that he’s ready for a rematch.
But the former prosecutor already predicted wrong when he told ABC News’s “This Week” last month that he didn’t believe Trump would skip the debate, citing his inflated “ego.”
Without his target to share the stage, it remains to be seen how Christie will fare on his own. Some Democrats see him as a skilled sparrer and believe he could have a good night pitching a moderate alternative to those open to hearing it.
“His numbers are up in New Hampshire and he’s so experienced in debates,” Starr Hopkins said. “He knows how to prosecute and case to devastating effect.”
Some also imagine him taking a similar no holds barred approach to the candidates who did make the stage.
“With Trump ducking the debate, he’s going to be aggressive and looking to make some one the Trump substitute,” he added.