Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s likely party switch from Democrat to independent would be a major wild card with the power to reshape the 2024 presidential election — it’s just unclear for which side.
Kennedy’s doomed primary bid against President Biden has kept the nominating contest concentrated around the president, even as he faces dips in voter enthusiasm, pessimism about his age and wish-casting that someone fresher would step up.
But in a race defined by disappointment in both parties, Kennedy’s expected campaign announcement next Monday is creating new intrigue and befuddling both Democrats and Republicans about whom he could ultimately help win.
“I don’t think anyone’s comfortable with having the question of a third-party candidate and who it helps and who it hurts,” said Sawyer Hackett, a Democratic strategist and senior adviser to former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro. “You never know how these things can shake out, you never know what a candidate can do in that race.”
Some operatives believe Kennedy could help inch Biden to victory. He has dabbled with conspiracy theories popular on the right and hasn’t bashed former President Trump the way the rest of his party has. He could theoretically give independent-minded voters an alternative to Trump if he locks the nomination, while making it harder for the former president to maintain a united coalition.
Others say it’s not so clear-cut. His universal name recognition and liberal brand identity could give those dissatisfied with Biden a Democratic-adjacent choice, while pulling votes from the president and possibly propping up Trump in the process.
Both scenarios presuppose that Kennedy doesn’t get enough votes to win outright, but instead chips away voters in the right battlegrounds to change the trajectory of the race.
“I don’t think anyone’s resting on their laurels,” Hackett said.
Kennedy has been tight-lipped about an official change in camp, though Mediaite reported that he’ll announce an independent bid Monday. The change would come after Kennedy tried for half a year to knock Biden out of the White House, challenging him as an insurgent with an establishment name. Despite the dynasty affiliation, however, he isn’t popular with voters in his party, and his approval ratings have dropped as he blurs the lines between conservatism, liberalism and libertarianism on the campaign trail.
A third-party bid only raises more questions. By running as an independent, Kennedy would circumvent the Democratic National Committee’s primary process, bypass the party’s rules around the calendar order and debates and make a play for voters unmoved by Biden and Trump.
In effect, he would go at it alone, leaving both sides wondering if they’ll sustain collateral damage.
“I want to tell you now what I’ve come to understand after six months of campaigning: There is a path to victory, the hope we are feeling isn’t some kind of trick of the mind,” Kennedy said in a video previewing his event. “We all recognize there’s a genuine possibility of national transformation, and its source is the goodness of the American people.”
Asked about the Mediaite article, Dennis Kucinich, Kennedy’s campaign manager and a former longtime Ohio congressman, directed The Hill to a page teasing an “historic event” on Oct. 9 in Philadelphia.
Pennsylvania is one of just a few states that could cost either Biden or Trump the election in addition to newer swing states like Georgia and Arizona.
“I’m not going to tell you right now exactly what that announcement will be,” Kennedy said in the recorded clip. “I’ll be speaking about a sea change in American politics and what your party and my part is in that change.”
Recent polling shows ample intrigue around nontraditional bids as apathy toward Democrats and Republicans continues to grow. A new Gallup survey shows that “the two major political parties remain unpopular in the U.S., with 56 percent of Americans viewing the Republican Party unfavorably and 58 percent saying the same of the Democratic Party,” according to the poll.
Moreover, interest in third-party bids has grown stronger. A vast majority of voters polled — 63 percent — say they “agree” that “a third major party is needed” due to poor performance of the two most prominent political parties, up 7 points from when voters were asked the same question last year.
Since entering the race in April, Kennedy, who is more than a decade younger than Biden, also polls more favorably in some surveys than either Biden or Trump. A survey from Reuters and Ipsos taken last month puts him several points higher than both parties’ figureheads, with 51 percent who have a positive view of him. Biden earns 45 percent of respondents compared with Trump at 40 percent.
There’s a strategic element that’s also adding to Democrats’ woes. It’s unclear if Kennedy will be on the ballot in some states, and it’s harder to plan ahead amid uncertainty about whether he’s helping or hurting.
There’s also the Jill Stein factor. Some in the party are still fretting about the Green Party nominee peeling off votes from Hillary Clinton in 2016 and now worry Kennedy or current Green Party candidate Cornel West could have a similar negative influence in 2024.
“We are of the view that anything or anyone that splits the anti-Trump coalition is bad,” said Matt Bennett, a Democratic operative with Third Way, a centrist think tank that is closely tracking third-party bids this cycle. “No one really knows what impact [Kennedy] would have, if any. But Trump has a ceiling and a floor that are roughly the same. Since that’s under 50 percent, the only way he wins is for third parties to drain votes from Biden, and [Kennedy], along with No Labels and West, would almost certainly do that.”
“We view them all as a profound danger to the republic,” Bennett said.
The concern that Kennedy could be good for Trump is closely held among both wings of Democrats. Liberals who would otherwise prefer pushing Biden leftward on policy are now warning about the lack of strategy to stop Kennedy from catching on, and moderates are equally concerned.
Some are also worried that he will use his family’s name and outsider status to cynically tack himself to the left, taking a page from their playbook without aligning on policy.
“At this point much of Kennedy’s political rhetoric and positions lean rightward, with heavy doses of conspiratorial rightwing pseudo-populism,” said Norman Solomon, a prominent left-wing activist and Biden critic.
“Yet no doubt he’ll be pitching to progressives for votes. He’s a dreamy candidate for the likes of Steve Bannon,” he said, referencing Trump’s confidant who floated the idea of a Trump-Kennedy ticket over the summer.
But for all the fear that he could cripple Biden, some Democrats are still adamant that he’s a bigger threat to Trump.
“Republicans have a monster of their own creation on their hands here,” said Hackett, who points to his unpopularity with Democrats as a leading reason that he could take conservative votes away from Trump.
Even some Republicans agree that he could be problematic for their side. They see Trump as a dominating force within their party, but acknowledge Kennedy can appeal to certain segments where the twice-impeached former president has made inroads, especially in online spaces where niche audiences are more receptive to controversial claims against establishment politicians.
“I think he might marginally hurt Trump,” said Keith Naughton, a Republican strategist and principal at Silent Majority Strategies who is also an opinion contributor to The Hill. “[Kennedy’s] problem is, when he’s sitting in the political restaurant, he’s chosen the all-you-can-eat conspiracy buffet. There’s nothing he’s not latching onto. You’ve got to pick a set of conspiracy theories, and that’s it. He’s all over the map.”