Iowa caucus day forecast: What to know 

Iowa is bracing for frigid weather next week as the state’s critical GOP caucus kicks off the Republican presidential nominating cycle.  

A major winter storm is set to bring “widespread, significant impacts” to much of the U.S. this week, according to the National Weather Service (NWS), and Iowa is already being hit by snow and freezing temperatures as candidates continue to campaign in the run-up to the Jan. 15 caucus.

Here’s what you should know about the Iowa caucus day forecast: 

What’s the forecast? 

Swathes of the state were under a winter storm warning on Monday, a week out from the GOP caucus.  

The NWS in the state issued caution about travel in the potentially hazardous conditions, with heavy snow expected in parts of Iowa in the coming days. 

“It’s still going to snow. A lot,” the NWS for Des Moines said Monday on X, the platform previously known as Twitter. In another post, the service noted “it’s going to get nasty out there.”  

The NWS weeklong forecast for Des Moines predicts snow continuing over the next few days, with temperatures for Sunday — the day before the caucus — expected to reach a high of just 5 degrees. Similar single-digit highs are expected in Cedar Rapids and Ames on Sunday, and in Sioux City, temperatures that day aren’t expected to climb past 0 degrees.

The Weather Channel predicts caucus day could see negative temperatures in several parts of the state.  

How is the weather affecting campaigns? 

The GOP presidential hopefuls are campaigning in high gear in the critical days before the caucus, crisscrossing the early states before voters cast their ballots — but the weather could prove a hurdle to their plans.  

Haley and DeSantis in particular are set for a media blitz in the Hawkeye State: After two back-to-back town halls on CNN last week, they’re slated for more with Fox News this week, as well as a CNN debate in Des Moines on Wednesday.  

“Historically, weather really does have impacts on elections, whether it be snow or rain, and can depress turnout,” said Aaron Kall, director of the University of Michigan’s debate program. 

The weather is likely causing “nervousness” for the campaigns, Kall said.  

On Monday, Haley’s campaign reportedly canceled an event in Sioux City, unable to make it to the site amid the storm, according to CNN. 

Fellow candidate Vivek Ramaswamy mocked the move on X, arguing “if you can’t handle the snow, you can’t handle Xi Jinping,” referring to the Chinese leader.  

The New York Times also reported that a Trump campaign event, in which former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) and current Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders were set to appear on the former president’s behalf, was also postponed due to the weather. 

And Roseanne Barr was scrapped from another Trump campaign event scheduled for Tuesday, which will still be held with former Attorney General Matthew Whittaker.

How could the weather impact voter turnout?  

Observers say the forecast doesn’t look great for the campaigns in the final stretch before the caucus as candidates seek to seize every chance they can to get in front of voters and get out the vote. 

“Bad weather can sometimes deter casual voters from going to the polls, and that usually hurts candidates whose supporters are less motivated,” said Iowa-based GOP strategist Michael Zona.  

“That said, Iowa caucusgoers are not casual voters. They are highly engaged and motivated—that’s why they’re first. They’re not going to be deterred by some bad weather, which is common in Iowa in January.” 

At the same time, Zona noted, campaigns will need to make sure their infrastructure is ready to get voters to the polls amid the stormy conditions. 

Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kaufmann told the Iowa Capital Dispatch on Monday that the weather could prevent “record-breaking turnout.” Good weather, by contrast, has been linked to strong voter turnout.

“Iowans are hearty and take their responsibility as first-in-the-nation Caucus-goers seriously,” said Iowa-based Republican strategist Jimmy Centers. “I expect Iowans will be quite willing to brave the cold on Jan. 15.”

Who could be hurt by bad weather? 

If some Iowans are deterred from voting on Monday, the looming question is which candidate could be hurt most by voters’ hesitance to brave the cold.  

Dave Peterson, a professor of political science at Iowa State University, suggested Haley could be most impacted, as DeSantis polls second to Trump in the state.

But Haley’s team shrugged off the stormy conditions, and the former South Carolina governor is set to be back in northwest Iowa later this week. 

“We’re prepared for everything, and we know some bad weather won’t stop Iowans from caucusing for Nikki,” said spokesperson Olivia Perez-Cubas.  

How does the weather compare to prior years? 

In 2020, the high temp for Des Moines was at 36 degrees, according to Weather Underground. The last time that figure dipped below freezing on a caucus day was in 2008, when it hit 30 degrees — and it hasn’t been in single digits this decade.  

A roundup of 7 p.m. temperatures in Des Moines for caucus days in recent decades, shared by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University, found figures at 15 degrees or higher between 1976 and 2016.