The Memo: DeSantis and Haley shape up for first one-on-one clash

CHICAGO — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley will finally get a one-on-one match-up Wednesday in the final TV debate before Monday’s Iowa Republican caucuses.

It will be the most important encounter yet between the two candidates, who are in a dogfight for second place in polls both nationwide and in the Hawkeye State. DeSantis and Haley are each trying to establish themselves as the main alternative to former President Trump in the battle for the GOP nomination.

Trump leads by more than 50 points in national polling averages and by more than 30 points in Iowa. But he is also dogged by legal troubles including four criminal indictments. 

On Tuesday, the former president was in a federal courtroom in Washington, D.C., as his legal team argued he should be immune from prosecution for his conduct surrounding the Capitol riot of Jan. 6, 2021.

Afterward, he contended that he had done “nothing wrong” and that his prosecution was a “real threat to our democracy.”

Trump will be in Des Moines on Wednesday — but not for the debate, which is being hosted by CNN. Trump is taking part in a Fox News town hall instead. Trump has not participated in any of the televised debates so far.

Wednesday’s clash will be the first time DeSantis and Haley have gone head-to-head without any other rivals. Neither former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie nor businessman Vivek Ramaswamy met the stricter polling requirements for the debate.

The more intense spotlight gives each candidate opportunities, and brings risks, as they sharpen their attacks with just five days left before the caucuses.

The contours of their attacks on each other are clear.

DeSantis often pushes the line that Haley is too close to the interests of big-money donors and that she is too soft on China — accusations that Team Haley denies and her allies suggest are driven by envy over her rise in the polls.

In recent days, Team DeSantis has also been drawing attention to some missteps by the previously sure-footed Haley on the campaign trail.

A fumbled answer to a question about the Civil War, when Haley failed to mention slavery as the primary issue driving the conflict, bogged her down in controversy. 

A comment at a New Hampshire event, where Haley said Granite State voters could “correct” the outcome in Iowa, also drew fire. Haley insists the New Hampshire comment was a good-natured joke. Her supporters defend the offhand remark as proof that she is authentic and human, not robotic.

Haley for her part has accused DeSantis of lying about her record and asserts that he has adopted similar positions to ones for which he is now criticizing her, such as advocating reform of Social Security.

Meanwhile, her allies have sought to make political capital out of the internal problems in the Florida governor’s orbit. DeSantis’s quest has been riven by infighting between the official campaign and the main super PAC supporting him, Never Back Down.

The main super PAC supporting Haley has run ads suggesting the DeSantis campaign is a dumpster fire.

Haley is the favorite to get the best of the Des Moines encounter, since she exhibits an ease on the debate stage that does not come easily to the Florida governor.

“Nikki wins over voters every time they hear her vision for a strong and proud America. She’s tough, authentic, and focused, and voters love that about her,” said Haley spokesperson Olivia Perez-Cubas. “With the debate stage down to just two, the time for Donald Trump’s hiding is just about over.”

But the DeSantis camp insists the one-on-one format will play to the governor’s strengths — and expose Haley.

“This time Nikki Haley won’t be able to hide behind Chris Christie and use Vivek as her personal punching bag,” said a DeSantis campaign senior official. “She’ll actually have to be accountable for her recent string of gaffes and record of caving to the left on every major issue conservatives care about.”

The battle will be a last chance to shift caucusgoers, even though the overall struggle between Haley and DeSantis is widely seen as a fight for second place in the caucuses.

“I think Haley probably has some momentum and her image is softer. She is a different kind of candidate, and she is talking about the need for a new generation of leadership,” said David Yepsen, who covered the caucuses for decades for the Des Moines Register. “I think that generates excitement with rank-and-file Republicans who want to move on from Trump.” 

Given Trump’s polling lead, it would be a seismic shock if he were somehow defeated Monday. 

But much will depend on how the results affect perceptions of Haley and DeSantis as the primary process moves ahead to the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 23, caucuses in Nevada on Feb. 8, the South Carolina primary on Feb. 24 and Super Tuesday on March 5, when more than a dozen states vote.

A third-placed finish would be disastrous for DeSantis, in part because he is significantly weaker in New Hampshire than in Iowa. Conversely, a result where he ran Trump close and pushed Haley into a distant third could reinvigorate his candidacy.

For Haley, it’s all about avoiding that fate. Placing second, or even staying within a couple of points of DeSantis would preserve her plausibility going into New Hampshire.

For all of that, however, the question of how either Haley or DeSantis might reel in Trump hangs unanswered over the whole primary process.

The aggregation of polls by Decision Desk HQ and The Hill shows Trump with a 34.8 percent lead over DeSantis in Iowa, with Haley just behind the Florida governor. The numbers have been relatively unchanged for weeks.  

New Hampshire is a slightly different story, as Trump’s lead has narrowed to 11 points over Haley. DeSantis is further back in the Granite State.  

Haley has sharpened her attacks on Trump recently, including in a new TV ad in Iowa that claims she would be a president of “grit and grace” and that she is not “a name from the past.” The latter claim is accompanied by an image of Trump and President Biden.

DeSantis has also become more aggressive, criticizing Trump for not ending so-called birthright citizenship while president and contending that he has “flip-flopped” on abortion to a point where he can no longer be considered “pro-life.”

Iowa’s Republicans can deliver high drama, as when Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) edged out Trump eight years ago, or when long-shot former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) defeated establishment favorite Mitt Romney in 2012.

DeSantis and Haley will be hoping for another shock on Monday — and the final debate provides them with their best opportunity to get one.

“This debate has some serious consequences,” said Yepsen. “This is not a cattle show with a bunch of people. This is a head-to-head between the two leading candidates to become Donald Trump’s leading challenger.” 

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.