Trump-Biden challengers seize on Iowa as case to stop rematch

Insurgent presidential hopefuls Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Dean Phillips are seizing on former President Trump’s blowout victory in Iowa to bolster their case to an electorate that is overwhelmingly against another Biden-Trump race.

Nonconformist aspirants see Trump and Biden as flawed choices for millions of disgruntled Americans, with Monday’s caucus results previewing what many dread could come later this year. With Trump’s closest rivals trailing him and the first contest in the books, candidates eyeing New Hampshire are sharpening their candidacies accordingly. 

Kennedy, an independent who inherited his family’s legacy political brand, and Phillips, a moderate House Democrat, are hoping to build outsider momentum around Trump’s emphatic Hawkeye State win. 

“It’s clearly shaping up to a three-man race. Trump, Biden and Kennedy,” said one anti-establishment Kennedy backer and political activist based in New Hampshire, which holds its primary Tuesday. “They will be two of historically least popular major nominees in modern history. Plenty of room for Bobby to siphon support from both camps.”

Kennedy has stood out to Biden and Trump allies for his switch last fall to an independent bid, widespread recognition, and good polling metrics that have punctuated his unpredictable White House campaign. 

Previously a Democrat, the 70-year-old lawyer didn’t take off against the well-funded incumbent president who occupies the party’s establishment lane. But after several months of consistency in polls with important constituencies, he’s become a figure worthy of Bidenworld’s attention. Meanwhile, some former and current Trump confidants speculate whether he will promote or demote the surging front-runner, now caucus-winner, in the race.

Both parties see a possible Hail Mary that Kennedy may not qualify for the ballot in enough states to shape the election’s trajectory in the fall. Following Trump’s Iowa success, however, he has publicly touted his ballot effort with more urgency. On Tuesday, his campaign noted that supporters have filed paperwork for his 2024 bid in six states, aiming to show traction in large places such as California and Texas, as well as Mississippi, North Carolina, Delaware and Hawaii after the cycle’s first contest this week.

“I’m inspired by how enthusiastic people are to collect signatures, cast ballots, create new political parties, and attend rallies,” Kennedy said in a statement. “That kind of energy is what will get us onto the ballot in every state and fuel our voter registration and GOTV operation as we head toward election day.”  

“Democracy is a lot more than voting,” he added. 

Kennedy’s independent posture means that for now, he doesn’t have to worry about New Hampshire next week, the first time Biden’s Democratic challengers will be put to the test at the ballot box. Registered independents are able to vote in either primary, making it all the more consequential for both sides.

Biden’s decision to move the South Carolina primary to first on the calendar — and effectively forfeit his name on the Granite State ballot other than as a write-in — has injected new life into Democratic rivals Phillips and Marianne Williamson, a national spiritual author and speaker, who are angling for the nontraditional vote. 

“It’s like we’re watching a car crash in slow motion, the [Democratic National Committee] actively suppressing any candidacy but Biden’s with the smug conviction that their political calculations are somehow superior to robust democratic debate,” Williamson told The Hill when asked about how Trump’s win in Iowa could influence her own strategy.

“Offering the American people nothing more inspiring than a rerun of 2020 is strategically disastrous,” Williamson said. “They act like ‘We got this,’ but their playbook is the same as 2016 and likely to produce the same result,” she predicted, echoing a fear among progressives and other Democrats who are looking ahead to another potentially turbulent Trump term. 

Biden’s opponents talk about holding two desires simultaneously: knocking out the current president and warning about a resurgence of the former one, which was crystallized after Iowa. “I see the struggle Democratic voters are going through,” Williamson added, “knowing in their hearts we need to offer voters something [far] more exciting than Joe Biden, yet loath to break the codependent cord with the masters of the universe at the DNC.”

The caucus results for Trump make Biden’s public enthusiasm troubles even more pronounced, as the insurgents seek to show voters another way to blunt Trump from becoming the nominee again to go up against Biden. A poll released just before the Iowa caucus found the 81-year-old president dropping to a stark, 15-year low approval rating for any president, earning just 33 percent of support among registered voters, according to a survey by ABC News/Ipsos.

“The Biden strategy in Iowa was to cancel the caucus. So, now they get no press coverage for Democrats and wall-to-wall coverage of Republicans. That’s terrible strategy,” said Cenk Uygur, a progressive media host who is also challenging Biden from the left.

“The main talking point of their surrogates was to point out that Trump is going to win the nomination. Everyone already knows that,” Uygur said. “And Biden is still losing to Trump in nearly every swing state. When are they going to realize that the voters dislike Biden more than they dislike Trump?”

“That can break your heart,” he added, “but if you don’t come to terms with that reality now, you’re going to come to terms with it in November when we get clobbered.”

Phillips, the Minnesota congressman, has arguably garnered the most attention within the small Democratic primary. He’s barnstorming New Hampshire, arguing that retail politics still matters, despite the president’s decision to skip the state after downgrading the Iowa caucus alongside the Democratic National Committee this year. While Phillips eased his own expectations for a possible lower place finish, he’s also shown a desire to pull from unexpected corners to keep Biden and Trump out of office.

This week, he participated in a conversation on X, previously Twitter, with owner Elon Musk and billionaire financier Bill Ackman, who recently donated $1 million to support his campaign against Biden. 

“The voters of Iowa have demonstrated President Trump’s dominating popularity in the Republican Party, and it’s time for everyone to revisit the reality of President Biden’s falling poll numbers and fading popularity,” said Cullen Tiernan, a labor advocate based in Concord, N.H., who is sympathetic to outside candidates. 

Tiernan is part of several voting blocs who are discontent with the president’s handling of foreign and domestic policies, particularly in the latter half of his tenure, with multiple wars in particular escalating existing tensions around inflation. 

“The elephant in the room is that no one has an answer for how Biden can possibly rebound. Does anyone think the situation in Ukraine, Gaza, Yemen or even Iraq will improve soon?” Tiernan said. “Will the cost of food and basic life necessities improve for working people improve soon? Will stagnant wages, the $7.25 minimum wage, improve soon?”

“Any honest person will tell you no to all these questions,” he added. “This reality creates real room for rival Democratic and independent candidates to reach out to more and more voters. To summon some Shakespeare, beware the warnings of January.”