Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is stepping up his strategy to get on battleground ballots as he flirts with the idea of running on the Libertarian Party ticket, raising alarm bells for Democrats who fear he will dent President Biden’s reelection prospects.
Kennedy’s consideration of another party switch comes as he faces significant scrutiny over whether he will be able to qualify for enough ballots nationwide as an Independent heading into the general election after unsuccessfully primarying Biden.
A Libertarian bid would, in theory, remove many of the hurdles he has faced and make him possibly more likely to be on the ballot in key swing states, something that is seen as a major threat to the incumbent president and his allies.
“It is interesting that the man who said he belongs to no party now suddenly wants to belong to a party when it serves his interest,” said Doug Gordon, a longtime Democratic strategist.
“Hijacking the Libertarian Party ballot line won’t change his odds of winning the presidency, which he has no chance at,” Gordon said. “But it does increase the odds he could play spoiler and hand the keys to the White House back to Trump.”
Gordon is not alone. Democrats groan about Kennedy being an impediment to Biden — who has seen sagging poll numbers for months on end — winning another White House term. Many believe they have a long and foreseeably hard path to November and want to focus their fire on former President Trump. But Kennedy’s unpredictable presence in the race makes it harder to do that.
In an interview with CNN host Michael Smerconish over the weekend, Kennedy, who has been chided for aligning with certain right-wing political and anti-vaccine sympathies, openly acknowledged that a Libertarian bid could be tempting, especially since he is well-regarded among the party’s top leadership.
“That’s something that we’re looking at,” Kennedy said. “We have a really good relationship with the Libertarian Party.”
Racking up enough signatures to qualify as an Independent, he stressed, is not likely to be an issue, with deadlines up until August. “We’ll be on the ballot in every state,” he asserted, adding that he has a “ground team” working in the most critical states.
But Democrats are still largely dismissive about his push to gain ballot access across the country. Their wish is that he falls short of the roughly half-dozen states that will be consequential to both major parties in the fall.
Kennedy running as a Libertarian, however, could change the outcome of the race in unknown ways. It would also make it easier for him to appear on Election Day ballots, experts say.
“This would help RFK Jr. in terms of ballot access, as the Libertarians already have access in many places,” said Kyle Kondik, an election analyst and managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
“The Libertarians have been the most consistent third-party presence in American politics over the past few decades,” he said.
Kennedy has so far taken small steps to familiarize himself with the Libertarian cause. He’s slated to speak at the party’s convention in California, a delegate-rich state where he has started collecting signatures, according to his campaign’s ballot access website.
“The people who support Trump have already made up their mind. Kennedy won’t be peeling off Trump supporters,” Charles Byrd, who chairs the Libertarian Party of Stanislaus County, Calif., told The Hill. “Most of Kennedy’s supporters are people from across the spectrum whose big issues are personal autonomy and parental rights in the context of the vaccine debate.”
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Despite becoming friendly with the Libertarian Party’s top brass, some local party officials such as Byrd do not agree that Kennedy is the right fit for their ticket. He’s too left-of-center on issues including guns and the First Amendment, which are some of their leading causes.
“Kennedy isn’t as pro-gun as I would like him to be,” Byrd said. “I am a Second Amendment absolutist. All gun laws are infringements, and [it] should be just as easy to buy a firearm as it would be to buy a screwdriver or a hammer. Then there’s the ‘three hots and a cots’ comment he made about global warming skeptics … [which] shows a disregard for free speech.”
This election year is filling up with more outsider candidates than in recent presidential cycles. Beyond Kennedy’s Independent run, Biden is facing three Democratic primary challengers, while Jill Stein, a doctor who ran in 2016, is seeking the Green Party ticket. Academic Cornel West is also running as an Independent after bailing on a long-shot progressive “People’s Party” bid last year.
There’s also the threat that the “No Labels” group will recruit an establishment Democrat such as Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) or former Republican South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, the last standing contender in the Republican primary against Trump.
Democrats widely believe that any of those choices could severely hurt Biden in places where he’s already vulnerable. Adding a Libertarian Party bid to the mix, some say, only helps solidify that.
“Under our current system, third parties can’t win the presidency, they can only play the role of spoiler,” Gordon said. “And all indications point to this being an extremely close election. So pulling any votes from Biden, even a small amount, is helping Trump.”