Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is using every tool at his disposal to get to the first debate with President Biden and former President Trump, though he faces a rocky path to qualify before June 27.
Kennedy has filed a complaint against the Federal Election Commission (FEC) and is barreling forward with his ballot access campaign, which could help him meet one of the necessary thresholds to make the stage. But he has other hurdles ahead of him, including meeting the steep polling requirements set by CNN.
Still, observers acknowledge the independent candidate could make the cut, however unlikely that may be.
“It’s unclear whether or not Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will make the debate stage in June, but it would be unprecedented in the modern era,” said Joel Payne, a Democratic strategist and chief communications officer of MoveOn, a progressive organization focused on keeping Kennedy and other third-party candidates out of office.
The cable network has laid out goal posts requiring contenders to get 15 percent of support in four national polls and appear as declared candidates in enough places to total 270 electoral votes, the minimum number needed to win the presidency.
On Wednesday, Kennedy filed a complaint with the FEC and against Biden’s and Trump’s campaigns — a sign that he’s starting to hedge his bets in case he comes up short. The complaint alleges that he is not being offered the same opportunity to debate and that the stated requirements breach existing election rules. He has pointed out that the Democratic and Republican nominees have not yet technically met the ballot benchmarks either.
“By demanding our campaign meet different criteria to participate in the debate than Presidents Biden and Trump, CNN’s debate violates FEC law and is a large prohibited corporate contribution to both the Biden and Trump campaigns,” Kennedy wrote.
Lorenzo Holloway, an attorney working on the pro-Kennedy effort, accused the television network, without elaborating, of “colluding” with his party rivals to keep the environmental lawyer off the stage.
“The violations occurred when, based on the available evidence, CNN colluded with the Biden committee and the Trump committee to schedule and did schedule a debate with criteria that were designed to result in the selection of certain pre-chosen participants, namely Biden and Trump,” Holloway argued in a letter filed this week on behalf of the campaign.
“Junior is obviously gung-ho and the ballot-access lawyers are [going to] be looking for any openings or leverage to get him on those ballots ASAP,” said a source familiar with Kennedy’s campaign strategy.
After becoming an independent in October, Kennedy has been petitioning across the country to count as a bona fide candidate in the general election. This week, he added New York to a list of 16 states where his campaign says he has met or exceeded the number of petitions to be on the ballot, rounding out other places including key battlegrounds Michigan and Nevada. Some states, like Texas and California, have already verified Kennedy’s status on the ballot, while others have not.
The Hill and Decision Desk HQ, which are keeping a running tally of states where Kennedy has announced ballot access, have confirmed four of the states on the list.
Some Kennedy allies are frustrated at what they see is a double standard for Biden and Trump in contrast to how third-party candidates are treated this cycle. They believe both the Democratic National Committee and Republican National Committee are working to prop up their nominees and exclude another viable contender.
Still, some project that Kennedy can bypass the expected logistical hurdles, noting his successes so far in alternative messaging, fundraising and other barometers for a campaign’s traction, including a substantial ground game that has paid organizers making the rounds on his behalf.
Biden, the source close to Kennedy’s campaign speculated, views debating him as “a clear and present danger” to his own White House prospects.
The June event is one of two lined up in which Trump and Biden are expected to participate, followed by an ABC-sanctioned debate in early September. It’s unclear whether Kennedy has already started preparing for what operatives say is an arduous but critical part of putting on a strong performance. Typically, candidates engage in several mock debates to test-run scenarios and mitigate the chance of surprise attacks. Some bring in aides and advisers to essentially cosplay their rivals, teasing out a variety of lines and vulnerabilities ahead of the main event.
“It’s an insanely extensive process,” said Michael Starr Hopkins, a Democratic strategist and commentator who helped with debate prep during the 2020 cycle.
With just weeks before the much-anticipated sparfest, Kennedy would ordinarily already be involved in prep work if he were planning to appear live.
“I’ve seen candidates not take it seriously and they paid the price,” Starr Hopkins said. “You can make and break a campaign with a good debate performance. He should be running murder boards daily, coming up with messaging goals for pre- and post-debate, as well as figuring out what his media and surrogate strategy will be.”
“Debates aren’t just two hours,” he added. “There’s a lot that goes into amplifying the message and creating ‘moments.’”
The Kennedy campaign did not respond to The Hill’s request for comment about whether he has been practicing.
Democrats, who have seen Kennedy as a growing threat to a second Biden term, are hoping he doesn’t even get to the level of live TV. Many have encouraged Biden to debate Trump in front of the public before voting starts and don’t see Kennedy playing into it. Instead, they’re focused on what they hope will be a one-on-one between the current president and the former one — especially after Trump is now the first convicted felon to be the party’s presumptive presidential nominee.
“Kennedy has as much of a chance of being the next president of the United States as my labrador retriever,” quipped Doug Gordon, co-founder of UpShift Strategies, a Democratic consultancy. “Having him on stage would be a disservice to voters and would be nothing more than a distraction.”
“CNN is right to keep him off stage and focus on candidates who can win,” he said.
The polling metric is more straightforward than the delegate tally. Kennedy has cleared the percentage entry point in three out of the required four surveys that CNN deems acceptable for the Atlanta event: Quinnipiac University, where he earns 16 percent; Marquette Law School, where he totaled 17 percent; and CNN/SRS, which also shows him at 16 percent. He will need to add another poll by the deadline.
Some strategists speculate that Kennedy could have an edge in states with higher concentrations of independent or younger voters, important constituencies with which he has polled well. But it’s an open question whether he’ll be able to qualify for another national survey in time.
Kennedy’s allies, for their part, argue the political establishment has an incentive to keep the independent off the debate stage.
“They will do any and everything to rat-f‑‑‑ Bobby from getting a podium,” the source close to Kennedy said.