Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign looks like it is in trouble with Vice President Harris as the likely Democratic nominee.
Kennedy is scrambling to keep the public’s attention — and struggling to keep his moribund presidential bid alive.
The independent candidate’s polling, prominent family and unpredictability have kept him on the watchlists of both parties.
But Harris’s ascent has coincided with cash woes and ballot-access concerns for the third-party insurgent. In another bad sign, Kennedy’s fiercest critics are starting to ignore him, suggesting they view him as less of a threat.
“He is a dysfunctional candidate,” said Michael Ceraso, a Democratic campaign strategist who suggested a number of things have harmed Kennedy in the last few weeks.
“The youth movement behind Gaza took a back seat to a terrible debate performance by the president, the assassination attempt of a former president, Dems turning on Biden,” said Ceraso. “RFK is irrelevant to all of this.”
Kennedy’s third-party bid was crafted largely on dissatisfaction with former President Trump, the GOP nominee, and President Biden, who ended his campaign last week and endorsed Harris. Now that the race has changed on the Democratic side, Kennedy has been robbed of one argument.
Democrats have always been suspicious of Kennedy’s motives, as he has targeted Trump less than Biden. He recently made headlines for a leaked call in which he appeared to agree with the former president about his prospects for success in November.
“That RFK Jr. was engaging in the same backroom political deals that he claims to despise shows that he knows his spoiler candidacy isn’t going to land him in the White House,” Matt Corridoni, a spokesperson for the Democratic National Committee (DNC), said in a statement.
Kennedy has struggled to transfer his attacks on Biden to Harris.
As Democrats swiftly embraced the vice president, Kennedy’s refocus has been clunky.
In an impromptu press conference immediately after Biden dropped out, Kennedy barely focused on Harris and kept criticizing Biden.
“His share of the vote has been declining, probably because Harris has picked up some of the wavering Dems who were in the Kennedy column,” said Kyle Kondik, a polling expert who analyzes factors affecting candidate performance in elections.
“He has been polling only in the mid-single digits in several recent national polls,” he said.
A trio of recent polls provides a dim snapshot for Kennedy.
A Wall Street Journal poll placed Kennedy at 4 percent, while a New York Times/ Siena College poll had him at 5 percent. He inched up 1 point in a Quinnipiac University survey to 6 percent — all lower than what he’s enjoyed in the past.
In a recent podcast interview with CBS News’s “The Takeout,” Kennedy insisted he’s seen new animation in voters backing his bid.
“The level of enthusiasm for my campaign has increased dramatically” since Harris’s entry to the race, he said.
That assertion appears at odds with one top indicator of campaign traction: funding.
Federal Election Commission filings show Kennedy spent nearly $1 million more than he took in last month and that the campaign is also carrying debt of approximately $3 million.
He said in the podcast that he was footing his own costly Secret Service expenses, though Biden asked the Secret Service to provide protection for Kennedy after the assassination attempt on Trump.
His biggest super PAC, American Values 2024, brought in a modest $228,000 in June, according to the FEC.
Kennedy has since been trying alternative ways to raise money, including a venture with the Libertarian National Committee that allows people to donate $41,300 alongside $3,300 for the general, which he claimed is “democratizing fundraising to make this independent run viable.”
“This historic collaboration breaks the fundraising stranglehold that the two major parties have on this election,” Kennedy said in a statement.
On Tuesday, Ramsey Reid, who is leading the DNC’s anti-Kennedy effort inside its third-party war room, circulated a memo titled, “RFK Jr.’s Spiraling Campaign,” which highlighted Kennedy’s drop in polls, lackluster schedule and financial strain.
“We will remain vigilant and make sure all third-party candidates are held accountable to playing by the rules,” the memo states. “RFK Jr. won’t become president, but he can help decide who does. We can’t take our foot off the gas.”
Kennedy also hasn’t hit his self-imposed 50-state ballot access goal. He’s collected signatures for bigger states including California, Texas and New York, but is still missing critical battlegrounds of Arizona and Wisconsin, as well as Virginia, according to his campaign’s public tally.
“My guess is that Kennedy’s eventual share of support in the election will be even lower than what polls are showing now as the true choice between Trump and Harris becomes clearer for voters,” Kondik said.
Although Kennedy appears to be flatlining, some Democrats are cautioning that Harris’s boom also may not stay at the same pace for the next three months.
“The Harris enthusiasm is a little inflated,” said one Democratic communications consultant and veteran of Sen. Bernie Sanders’s (I-Vt.) presidential campaign. “I’m all-in and think she can win, but haven’t forgotten she historically has not been the strongest” campaigner.
Still, observers say Kennedy is running against the clock. Operatives who were focused on deflating his candidacy are now calling for him to step down and are even anticipating a possible endorsement of Trump.
“I think it’s possible, mostly because the Dems have completely shut the door, while Trump/MAGA might offer some concessions,” the communications consultant said about Kennedy backing Trump. “I can see how supporters could fold into the GOP coalitions.”
Some Kennedy supporters are actively hoping he does that. One source familiar with Kennedy’s campaign said he should “seriously consider cutting a deal” with Trump “and get a high ranking appointment or ambassador position.”
Kennedy has tamped down speculation that he would halt his campaign to back the former president, but didn’t rule it out entirely.
“I can’t imagine a circumstance right now where I would do that,” Kennedy said, with a caveat: “Anything is possible.”