Tester locked in tight race in Montana; Trump holds wide lead over Harris: Poll

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) is locked in a tight race in Montana as former President Trump boasts a wide lead over Vice President Harris in the state, polling shows.

A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey puts Trump-backed Republican Tim Sheehy with a 2-point lead over Tester, 48 percent to 46 percent. Another 5 percent were undecided. 

Tester is one of the most vulnerable incumbents this cycle, a rare Democrat holding office in a state Biden lost back in 2020, and his race could determine which party ends up controlling the upper chamber.

The poll also marks a shift from March, when the same pollster found Tester up by 2 points over his Republican challenger. 

Because the gap falls within the survey’s 3-point margin of error, the race remains a potential tie between the two Senate race rivals. 

“The share of undecided voters has decreased from 14% to 5% as November draws closer, and Sheehy has benefited with a six-point increase in support, while Tester’s support has only increased by two points” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. 

This week, Tester launched a “Republicans for Tester” group to rally support from across the aisle as he braces for a competitive November contest. 

At the top of the ticket, Trump is a whopping 15 percentage points ahead of Harris, but the vice president’s 40 percent support is a notable 5-point improvement from the 35 percent President Biden garnered back in March.

Trump held the support of 55 percent of Montana voters, with another 5 percent undecided. 

“Harris has picked up ground among women voters — 47% support Harris compared to 40% who supported Biden, while Trump maintains around 61% support among male voters. Voters with college degrees have also flipped; in March, they broke for Trump by seven points, now breaking for Harris by seven,” Kimball said.

When undecided voters were asked whom they lean toward, Trump jumps to 58 percent, and Harris ticks up slightly, to 43 percent.

Third-party candidates, though, are a drag on the Democratic nominee. With them added into the mix, Trump brings in 54 percent, while Harris’s support drops to 39 percent. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. brings in 5 percent, and another 3 percent were undecided.

The survey was conducted Aug. 5-6 among 1,000 likely voters in Montana, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Tags Joe Biden Jon Tester

Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed..

Main Area Top ↴

ovp - video bin

Kelly Rizzo shares details about launching Comfort Club

Kelly Rizzo shares details about launching Comfort ...
Debbie Allen talks 'Grey's Anatony' and her new ...
Fiona Rene shares the unique way she gets into ...
Taylor Krause says her 'brain geunuinely ...
Bethany Joy Lenz opens up about surviving a cult
Dafne Keen shares what it was like on the set of ...
More Videos
Main Area Middle ↴

Article Bin Elections 2024

Canada will reduce immigration targets as Trudeau acknowledges his policy failed
Israeli strike on Gaza shelter kills 17 as Blinken says cease-fire talks will resume
Middle East latest: Blinken in Doha to discuss Gaza cease-fire with Qatari officials
A car bomb explodes outside a police station in western Mexico, wounding 3 officers
Mozambique’s ruling party candidate declared winner of presidential election as rigging claims swirl
Putin ends BRICS summit that sought to expand Russia’s global clout but was shadowed by Ukraine
Turkey strikes Kurdish militant targets in Syria and Iraq for a second day
Massive displacement from Israel-Hezbollah war transforms Beirut’s famed commercial street
Canada’s Trudeau vows lead his Liberal Party into the next election
Russian lawmakers ratify pact with North Korea as US confirms that Pyongyang sent troops to Russia
Train carrying 55 people derails on Norway’s north coast, killing at least 1 person and injuring 4
Trash carried by a North Korean balloon again falls on the presidential compound in Seoul
Britain’s leaders likely to face slavery reparations questions at a summit of former colonies
The Paris conference for Lebanon raises $1 billion in pledges for humanitarian and military support
Venice extends its day-tripper tax through next year to combat overtourism
More AP International

Image 2024 Elections

Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump, left, stands on stage with Melania Trump, Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner and Republican vice presidential candidate Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, after speaking during the Republican National Convention, Thursday, July 18, 2024, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Julia Nikhinson)
Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump, left, stands on stage with Melania Trump, Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner and Republican vice presidential candidate Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, after speaking during the Republican National Convention, Thursday, July 18, 2024, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Julia Nikhinson)

Most Popular

Load more

Video

See all Video