The pro-Palestinian protest movement is preparing for its biggest, most critical moment yet.
Tens of thousands of people are expected to join rallies condemning the Biden administration’s policies on Israel and Gaza during the Democratic National Convention, which begins Monday in Chicago.
Authorities are readying for crowds of up to 30,000.
“It is very likely that there will be tens of thousands throughout the week,” said Hatem Abudayyeh, a spokesperson for the coalition behind the main protest, March On The DNC. Abudayyeh is also the chair of the U.S. Palestinian Community Network.
Beyond the sheer numbers involved, Chicago will be a crucible within which many of the tensions roiling the Democratic Party over Gaza will play out.
Pro-Palestinian activists, citing the death and horrendous suffering inflicted over the past 10 months, accuse President Biden and Vice President Harris of supporting a genocide.
Pro-Israel Democrats — as well as almost all Republicans and some centrists — take umbrage at the terminology of genocide and ethnic cleaning, countering that the protesters are whitewashing the actions of Hamas.
Somewhere in the middle are Democrats saddened by the situation in the Middle East who worry that the party’s most fervently pro-Palestinian wing will destroy any semblance of unity. They fear disorder in Chicago — and its capacity to increase former President Trump’s chances of victory in November.
The voices of caution make little impact on the protesters. Almost all of them see the situation in Gaza as a moral issue that demands a response, wherever the electoral chips fall.
“The protests on American soil against the actions of the American government in Vietnam did not end the violence in one night or one year,” said Arielle Rebekah, a spokesperson for Jewish Voice for Peace-Chicago. “It took sustained pressure on political leaders to make that happen. The same is true of South African apartheid. Sustained pressure and sanctions brought about an end of apartheid South Africa.”
Around 1,200 Israelis, most of them civilians, were killed in the Hamas attacks on Oct. 7. Israel’s ongoing reprisals have killed more than 40,000 Gazans, according to the local health ministry. Women and children are estimated to account for more than 27,000 of those deaths.
Opinion polls demonstrate that the bipartisan consensus in favor of Israel that existed in previous generations has fallen apart.
A Gallup poll conducted in June showed 69 percent of Democrats disapproving of Israel’s military actions in Gaza, while 23 percent approved. Among Republicans, 76 percent approved and 19 percent disapproved.
Biden’s close embrace of Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his penchant for describing himself as a Zionist, and his reluctance to do more than pause a single arms shipment to Israel has inflamed the progressive base.
During the Democratic primary process, “Uncommitted” — effectively a protest vote against Biden’s policies on Israel and Gaza — racked up 19 percent of the vote in Minnesota and 13 percent in the key swing state of Michigan.
Layla Elabed, a co-founder of the Uncommitted National Movement, noted that almost 800,000 voters nationwide had rallied to that cause. On Sunday, the Uncommitted movement announced that this year’s Democratic convention would feature the first official panel on Palestinian human rights in the party’s history.
The movement had won 30 delegates through the primary process, Elabed noted when she spoke with this column Friday.
“These are delegates with the Democratic Party and the hope is they would be respected as delegates. Likewise, we intend to respect the proceedings of the Democratic National Convention,” she said.
Respect for the convention proceedings is a lot lower down the priority list of other dissenting voices, however — as is concern about the Democrats’ electoral prospects.
Abudayyeh accused the Biden administration of spending 10 months “just parroting every single Israeli government and military talking point. The entire world recognizes that the U.S. has said ‘We are with Israel no matter what they do.’ Well, if that’s what they are going to do, and they lose, that’s not on us.”
There is, of course, the related question of how clashes between protesters and police would play out in the larger political world. The fear among establishment Democrats is that any riotous situation would bring back memories of the 1968 convention — also in Chicago — where anti-Vietnam War protesters and police clashed violently.
In that instance, centrist voters recoiled at the chaos, whatever their views of the rights and wrongs of the war — helping Republican presidential nominee Richard Nixon beat Democrat Hubert Humphrey in the fall.
Last month, Netanyahu’s visit to Washington brought a massive crowd of protesters onto the streets — but also drew negative coverage for acts of vandalism in and around the capital’s Union Station.
Supporters of the Chicago protests seem less concerned about any negative public reaction to such scenes, instead asserting the police need to avoid any overreaction.
“When conditions escalate, it is because police are using military-style tactics against people who are attempting to make their voices heard,” said Rebekah.
“It’s the wrong focus people are having. The question should not be, ‘What happens when citizens get rowdy in the streets?’ The question should be, ‘Why are Chicago police using chemical weapons against people who are asking for an end to the genocide in Gaza?’”
Harris has made a perceived shift — rhetorically at least — by displaying more sympathy toward the plight of the Palestinians than Biden commonly does.
After meeting with Netanyahu in Washington, she lamented “the death of far too many innocent civilians in Gaza” and said “I will not be silent” about Palestinian suffering.
But most pro-Palestinian activists want to see far more in terms of policy changes. The big rallying cry among the protesters is for an embargo on U.S. arms to Israel — an objective that seems to have almost no chance of being met in the short term.
“People are certainly noticing the rhetorical shifts she has made, but the question is, really, will it be accompanied by a shift in policy?,” said Eva Borgwardt, a national spokesperson for If Not Now, a movement of American Jews opposed to what they see as oppressive Israeli policies toward the Palestinians.
“An arms embargo is both the morally and strategically right thing to do for the Democrats. Kamala Harris has an overwhelming mandate from voters across the country who want U.S. taxpayer-funded bombs to stop falling on civilians,” Borgwardt added.
More centrist voices contend any move toward an arms embargo would leave Harris open to the charge that she was abandoning a U.S. ally. In last month’s Gallup poll, disapproval of Israel’s actions in Gaza commanded only a narrow plurality of American voters, 48 percent to 42 percent.
There are, to be sure, pro-Palestinian voices who push back against the suggestion that the movement should be all that concerned about the Democratic Party, one way or another.
Noura Erakat, a Rutgers University professor and a prominent Palestinian-American activist, recently mulled an approach from Green Party nominee Jill Stein as to whether she wished to be considered as Stein’s running mate. (Stein ultimately chose another pro-Palestinian academic, Butch Ware, as her vice-presidential nominee.)
As one example of the disregard shown toward Gaza by both major parties, Erakat hit out at the fact that, during the now-infamous Trump-Biden debate, Palestinians “were only mentioned as a slur. How are we disregarded with such ease?”
One thing is clear: A massive crowd of protesters is on a collision course with the Democratic nominee for president.
The main protest marches in Chicago are set for Monday, when the convention opens; and Thursday, when Harris makes her big speech.
In such a febrile environment, the ramifications are anyone’s guess.
The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.
This story was updated at 1:58 p.m.