Gaetz scores big win over McCarthy: 5 takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries

Primaries in Florida dealt a blow to former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) revenge tour against the Republicans who voted to oust him last year, and teed up a potential sleeper Senate race between incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R) and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D). 

Votes were also cast in Alaska and Wyoming primaries to set key November match-ups in the battle for control of Congress. The contests came as thousands of Democrats gathered in Chicago for the ongoing party convention. 

Here are five takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries.

McCarthy’s revenge tour dealt another blow

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) fended off a primary challenger in the latest race to put a spotlight on tensions within the House GOP after McCarthy’s ouster last year. 

Gaetz beat Aaron Dimmock, a retired naval officer and political newcomer supported by McCarthy and his allies, in the GOP race for his seat in Florida’s 1st Congressional District. Dimmock told The Hill ahead of the primary that he’s never spoken to McCarthy, but he ran Tuesday with the Californian’s backing and more than $3 million in support from a super PAC with ties to some in his orbit. 

Gaetz led the charge of GOP lawmakers who voted for McCarthy’s historic removal from his leadership post last year, drawing the California Republican’s ire. The two have been feuding since, most recently with a public clash that drew headlines at last month’s Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.

The Florida primary results mark another loss for McCarthy’s efforts to get back at his GOP opponents after Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), who also voted for the ouster, comfortably won her primary in South Carolina earlier this year.

On the other hand, Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), another anti-McCarthy lawmaker, was successfully ousted in Virginia.

Gaetz is now set to go up against Democrat Gay Valimont, a gun violence prevention activist who ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. The district in Florida’s panhandle has long been a Republican stronghold, and the incumbent is now well-positioned to retake his seat in November.

A potential sleeper Senate race is set

A Senate race in Florida that has the potential to be closer than expected is now set for the fall, with Mucarsel-Powell poised to take on incumbent Scott.

The state has lurched to the right in recent years, but recent polling has shown Scott’s lead over his top challenger shrinking. The potential sleeper Senate race could be key to Democrats’ efforts to maintain control of the Senate. 

Cook Political Report rates the seat as “likely Republican,” a step short of being solidly in the GOP column. 

Scott — who narrowly defeated then-Sen. Bill Nelson (D) in 2018 — notably came under fire last year for his “Rescue America” plan, which initially called for sunsetting federal programs. Recent polling has also shown him with lackluster approval numbers in the state. 

Mucarsel-Powell focused largely on Scott as she campaigned against several other Democratic competitors, stressing that “Florida is IN PLAY” this fall. Other Democrats have argued in recent weeks that Florida is on the table for the presidential race, particularly after Harris took over the top of the party’s ticket. 

This cycle, it’s set to be an uphill climb for Mucarsel-Powell, with The Hill/Decision Desk HQ forecasts giving Scott an 83 percent chance of winning another term. Still, a competitive contest could put Republicans on defense for the Florida seat as both parties battle for control of the upper chamber. 

Peltola fights to keep Alaska’s House seat blue

Incumbent Rep. Mary Sattler Peltola (D-Alaska) advanced from the state’s nonpartisan primary for its at-large House district as she fights to keep the Last Frontier’s lone lower chamber seat in Democratic hands. Two Republicans, Nick Begich and Nancy Dahlstrom, also advanced.

Two years ago, Peltola won a special election to fill out the rest of the late Rep. Don Young’s (R) term in the House, flipping the seat blue for the first time in decades. During the midterms, she defeated former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R), Begich and libertarian Chris Bye to win a full term.

This year, a dozen candidates are running in the primary for Peltola’s seat, hailing from both sides of the aisle, as well as other affiliations. Under Alaska’s ranked choice system, the top four candidates advance to November’s election, regardless of party. 

Peltola, the first Alaska Native in Congress, has the challenge of running for reelection as a Democratic lawmaker in a state that went to Trump in both 2016 and 2020. 

After she said in July that she was “keeping an open mind” about the presidential race after President Biden stepped aside, according to Alaska Public Media, she clarified on social media that she wouldn’t vote for Trump.

She was among a small handful of Democrats who voted for a resolution condemning Vice President Harris for her role in the administration’s handling of the southern border, and is one of several vulnerable Democrats skipping the party convention this week.

Meanwhile, Republicans’ House campaign arm is targeting the Alaska seat as an “offensive pick-up” opportunity this fall, pouring millions in against the incumbent. Cook Political Report rates Peltola’s seat as “lean Democrat.”

Dems get their candidates for potential Florida swing seats

Matchups are set for two competitive, Republican-held Florida seats as Democrats eye potential pickup opportunities in the fight for House control.

Whitney Fox, a former local government official, won the Democratic nomination in Florida’s 13th Congressional District, setting up a showdown with incumbent Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R).

Luna, a Trump ally and a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, won the district in the midterms, turning it from blue to red after redistricting in the Sunshine State.

This time around, several Florida Democrats in the House have thrown their weight behind Fox, the former director of communications and marketing for the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority in Pinellas County, as she looks to pull off a flip back to blue. Fox defeated four other Democratic hopefuls to advance to November. 

Over in Florida’s 27th Congressional District, Miami-Dade School Board member Lucia Baez-Geller emerged from the Democratic primary to take on two-term incumbent Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.), who won her seat in 2020.

The Democrats’ House campaign arm has set its sights on both Luna and Salazar’s districts, which the nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report rates as “likely Republican.”

DeSantis-backed school board candidates rejected in Florida

School board candidates backed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) were largely rejected by voters in Tuesday’s primaries. 

Eleven of 23 school board candidates endorsed by the Florida governor appeared to have lost their races Tuesday night, the Tampa Bay Times reported, and another five races looked headed to November runoffs. 

Incumbents Laura Hine and Eileen Long were poised to fend off DeSantis-endorsed Danielle Marolf and Erika Picard, respectively, according to unofficial results from Pinellas County.

In Hillsborough County, incumbents Nadia Combs and Jessica Vaughn also looked set to defeat DeSantis-backed challengers, according to results from Fox 13 News.

The Associated Press also reported that two DeSantis-appointed school board members in Broward County lost their seats to challengers. 

The results are a blow to DeSantis, who lodged an unsuccessful bid for the White House this cycle. Last cycle, a majority of his endorsed candidates won their school board elections in Florida, flipping some liberal-leaning school boards to conservative. 

The Sunshine State governor has leaned hard into educational issues as part of his political brand, while Florida has come under national criticism over controversial book-banning policies and Black history education.