RFK Jr.’s name on ballot poses danger for Trump in key states

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s name is likely to remain on the ballot in key states in November in what could inadvertently threaten former President Trump despite the independent candidate suspending his campaign and endorsing Trump.

Kennedy said he would push to be removed from the ballot in battlegrounds that will help determine who wins the White House, but as of now, officials say voters will see him appear as a candidate in Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina when they head to the polls.

Polls had shown Kennedy draining support from Trump before he suspended his bid, raising the likelihood that his presence in certain states could impact the results even where he’s no longer running.

“If a candidate is on the ballot, someone will vote for them regardless,” said Christopher Thrasher, a ballot access consultant who analyzes third-party campaigns. “The primaries showed as much this year on both sides. How many votes is anyone’s guess at this point.”

Republicans have delighted in Kennedy’s embrace of Trump. Ahead of the endorsement deal, many wanted to make sure he would help Trump defeat Vice President Harris and not the other way around. Kennedy’s decision to remove himself from swing states while staying on solidly blue state ballots was his attempt at showing loyalty to Trump and helping assert his defiance of the Democratic Party. 

Kennedy and Trump confidants see his decision as a win-win. By technically staying on the ballot in Democratic strongholds, Kennedy leaves open the possibility that some voters who don’t want the Harris-Walz ticket could still vote for him and make liberals sweat.

Those allied with Kennedy say he is hoping to put Democrats on defense to have to spend more money in safe blue states, dollars that would otherwise go to battlegrounds.

“He will now counter-attack the Democratic Party and force them to spend money on states they weren’t counting in states like New York, California, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Illinois, Washington,” a source familiar with Kennedy’s ballot strategy told The Hill, speaking without attribution to discuss plans that are not yet public. 

Trump “will spend literally no money at all on it,” the source said. “The Democrats are going to be screwed and have to spend extra money.”

On the other hand, Kennedy will remain on the ballot in some swing states and could take away votes from Trump. Prior to offering his endorsement, sources close to Kennedy were aware that he could face complicated ballot challenges in certain states and relayed that to Trump’s camp during negotiations. 

The environmental attorney’s goal of getting on as many ballots across the country as he could varied widely by each state, and reversing his work now has its own set of challenges. In the Midwest, for example, where Trump and Harris are running competitive ground games, Kennedy’s candidacy could complicate the dynamics of a two-way race.  

“Wisconsin and Michigan have clear statutes that prevent nominees from withdrawing,” Thrasher said.

Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson’s office has said state law prevents more marginal candidates from withdrawing from consideration. Kennedy is expected to appear as the nominee for the Natural Law Party there.

In Wisconsin, the state’s Elections Commission overwhelmingly voted Tuesday that Kennedy could not be taken off because he is still alive, citing the only exception for removal being death. 

The North Carolina Board of Elections, meanwhile, reportedly voted this week to deny Kennedy’s removal request due to the fact absentee ballots had already been sent out.

“Regardless of statute, in practice, the ultimate deadline for a candidate withdrawal is the day before military and overseas absentee ballots are sent out,” Thrasher added. “And like everything else, that can vary state-by-state.”

Kennedy allies are preparing to ask his base to rally behind Trump. 

“Bobby is going to clearly articulate to his supporters in those states to vote MAGA,” said a second source close to Kennedy’s campaign who is aware of internal plans. 

Time isn’t necessarily on Kennedy’s side, which is now Trump’s problem too. By waiting until late summer to effectively drop out, the second source said, it’s harder to navigate each state’s rules that could have late consequences. 

“If the merger had happened earlier they would’ve had more time to get off the ballots,” the source added.

The countdown to Election Day means a lot of fine-tuning. Kennedy is expected to do more press appearances in which he will articulate the benefits of voting for the Trump-Vance ticket.

“He just did Tucker [Carlson]. And he’s gonna continue to hit podcasts and media,” said the second pro-Kennedy source.

Kennedy’s team will also likely “put memos and advisories” out about the importance of getting behind Trump, the source added. “So far, Trump is showing the influence that Bobby will have isn’t just lip service. A lot is going to happen in under 70 days.”

Republican strategist Nicole Schlinger said these efforts may be necessary with Kennedy staying on the ballot in some important places because it “underscores the need” for him to get out a directive to his followers. 

“This has happened before, and while it’s suboptimal, it’s not insurmountable,” she said. “As long as more of those supporters go to Trump than Harris, which they will, it’s a win.”

Schlinger said Trump and Kennedy’s shared trait as “outcasts of the status quo” tracks. If Kennedy is “willing to take it on the road and personally visit neglected areas that feel left behind,” she said, “he will have a sympathetic audience with open ears and minds to what he has to say.”

Kennedy has been effective in erasing himself from the ballot in some places both sides consider must-win states. A day after he got on the ballot in Arizona, Kennedy requested to be removed ahead of suspending his campaign in the same state. The Office of the Arizona Secretary of State confirmed his name was withdrawn.

He was also permitted to withdraw his candidacy in Pennsylvania and Nevada, and a separate issue over Kennedy’s residency prevented him from getting on the Georgia ballot during his independent run. 

Democrats are still watching Kennedy’s moves closely. Strategist Matt Erwin said only a handful of voters could make a difference. “Any time you have a razor-thin polling margin, third-parties are impactful,” he said.

“The biggest concern for me would be, if I was either campaign, a level of dissatisfaction that settles in with this pairing of candidates that still has people wanting to hold their nose and protest,” he continued.

After President Biden stopped running for a second term and Harris replaced him, polls began showing more consistently that Kennedy was taking votes away from Trump. Others, however, still showed Harris performing worse when he was included.

Erwin pointed to the contested election of 2000 in which Green Party candidate Ralph Nader is believed to have cost Democrat Al Gore votes, ultimately punting it to the Supreme Court. He said Kennedy staying on the ballot is “just another way” for a similar situation to happen.

Matthew Foster, a lecturer in the government department at American University, said the high name recognition of both candidates might cause Kennedy to become just another protest vote in places where he’s still a candidate.

“Those are probably people who weren’t going to vote anyway no matter what for [Trump or Harris],” he said. “Yes, there are going to be circumstances that a few do, but nothing that makes or breaks this cycle.”