Progressives are losing steam on some of the issues they hold dear given opposition from centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and the White House, even as wins in Texas seem likely to grow the number of liberal “squad” numbers in the next Congress.
Liberal hallmarks like police reform and climate change are shrinking from President Biden’s priority list as the White House signals a move toward the center. Other Democrats are actively distancing themselves from their party’s left wing.
Yet in Texas’s primaries on Tuesday, democratic socialist Greg Casar won and will almost certainly take his seat in Congress, while another liberal candidate, Jessica Cisneros, forced Rep. Henry Cuellar, one of the most conservative Democrats in the House, into a runoff election.
The dueling narratives point to how progressives are facing an uphill climb in getting their policies passed in Washington, even as primary fights seem likely to increase their numbers whether or not House leadership changes hands in November.
Centrist groups argue progressives are not only holding the party back, but they’re also injuring it with their embrace of fringe issues like “defund the police.”
“It’s crystal clear that the ideas and slogans of the far left are not the way to defend or grow Dem majorities,” said Matt Bennett, co-founder of Third Way, a prominent centrist think tank in Washington.
“With the tiny margins in today’s Congress, this is an obvious call for Democrats to willingly hand over congressional majorities to a dangerously anti-democratic GOP.”
Casar’s victory and the showing by 28-year-old Cisneros highlight the strength of the progressive movement, says the left, which has consistently argued that Democrats would be better off embracing the policy positions of its liberal base.
It will also ensure the squad is even stronger going forward.
“Greg is a vote with the squad. It’s an important vote,” said Max Berger, a progressive operative and former veteran of Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s (D-Mass.) presidential campaign. “That’s a big deal whether it came through scaring people or not.”
The twin realities underscore a Democratic Party searching for its identity at a time when it is being led by the 78-year-old Biden, who many see as a transitional or caretaker president.
Biden is also suffering from low approval ratings that have battered the rest of his party and worried Democrats about November’s midterm elections.
The debate over the party’s future has largely been pushed to the side since the epic meltdowns in the fall over Biden’s legislative agenda.
The deadly crisis in Ukraine, a global pandemic and record-high inflation have all played their part in somewhat cooling public tensions.
But the battle is far from over.
Biden in his State of the Union address on Tuesday sought to meet progressives on issues like increasing wages for workers and breaking up corporate monopolies, but left other more divisive policies untouched and at times sought to differentiate himself from the left flank altogether.
“We should all agree: The answer is not to defund the police,” Biden said, attempting to put an end to the intraparty debate about whether Democrats should use that verbiage in their messaging ahead of November.
Climate investments, one of the core tenets of Biden’s Build Back Better plan, were only briefly mentioned, a notable shift that angered some progressives.
Offering a rebuttal, Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) said she wanted to remake Congress into a “working families majority,” a play off the liberal Working Families Party that shares her agenda. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) said that Biden’s address “left a little bit to be desired for key constituencies.”
“He looked more comfortable being a commander facing war than a president who can see others that don’t share his lived experience,” said one progressive strategist who previously worked on Sen. Bernie Sanders’s (I-Vt.) presidential campaign.
“He painted the struggles and strategies in Ukraine brilliantly. But he didn’t paint the struggles and solutions to the country’s mental health struggles pertaining to the voters who elected him,” the strategist said.
Progressives, just like Biden, are also trying to turn things around.
Organizers and liberal lawmakers talked up the Texas races for months. Justice Democrats and the Sanders-inspired Our Revolution raised funds and sought to increase Cisneros’s visibility. Progressives were encouraged by her ability to force Cuellar into a runoff election.
But without a definite win, it’s unclear if they will regain the traction they once enjoyed earlier in Biden’s term when big liberal policy gains appeared more likely.
Recent polling also shows a tough road ahead for liberals. A new Harvard-Harris Poll survey obtained by The Hill found that almost half of Americans polled say the Democratic Party is moving too far toward the left.
And even some broader issues like Black Lives Matter have lost popularity in recent weeks. The survey found that just 20 percent of respondents view the movement favorably, compared to 35 percent who feel “very unfavorable” about it, a decline from the firm’s earlier polling.
Biden’s “defund” line at the State of the Union seemed to reflect that. But the next day, it had already received condemnation from progressive Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.)
“At a time when people of color still feel terrorized by police, it was disappointing that the president did not push hard enough for law enforcement accountability,” he wrote in a tweet.