Nashville has suddenly become the center of the political world, after the GOP-led Tennessee House of Representatives expelled two Black Democrats on Thursday.
State Reps. Justin Jones and Justin Pearson were expelled for breaking House rules as they protested in favor of gun control on March 30.
Jones and Pearson had marched to the well of the chamber without having permission to speak and, using a bullhorn, joined in with chants from protestors in the public galleries.
A third lawmaker who stood in support of them but did not use the bullhorn, state Rep. Gloria Johnson (D), survived her expulsion vote.
Jones and Pearson are Black. Johnson is white.
The original protests followed a March 27 mass shooting at Nashville’s Covenant School, in which three adults and three children were killed. The three children were all nine years old.
Given the scale of the human tragedy, it’s not surprising that political emotions are running high.
Here are the main takeaways from the expulsions.
Tennessee Republicans overplayed their hand
GOP lawmakers in the Tennessee statehouse claim they needed to act to nip any further acts of disorder in the bud. According to the Associated Press, one member, state Rep. Gino Bulso (R) said that the Democrats had “effectively conducted a mutiny.”
Other Republicans accused the Democrats of an “insurrection” — an inflammatory charge and a largely specious one, at least if it was meant to evoke a meaningful comparison with the violent attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
Republicans outnumber Democrats by more than three-to-one in the Tennessee House chamber. If their objective was simply to thwart a push for greater gun control and instead focus on school security and mental health, they could easily have done so, without even attracting much national attention.
Instead, they have made political stars out of “the Tennessee Three,” sparked cries of authoritarianism, catapulted the story to national prominence and — in their more lenient treatment of Johnson over Jones and Pearson — left themselves wide open to the charge of racism.
By any reasonable measure, Tennessee Republicans have scored a sizable political own goal.
National Democrats are seizing on the story
The biggest names in Democratic politics have rushed to condemn the expulsions. Their outrage might well be sincere but it is another sign of how advantageous they consider the politics of the story to be.
In a Thursday night statement, President Biden described the expulsions as “shocking, undemocratic and without precedent.”
Vice President Harris headed to Tennessee on Friday, altering her schedule to meet with Jones and Pearson. Harris, who arrived in Nashville late in the afternoon, was expected to try to focus media attention on the White House’s desire for tighter gun laws as well.
Even former President Obama, who is careful not to speak out on each and every political controversy, called the events “the latest example of a broader erosion of civility and democratic norms.”
No-one really knows if this will shift the politics on gun control
The sheer scale of the controversy has led some advocates for gun control to claim a greater momentum for their cause.
Shannon Watts, the founder of Moms Demand Action, a prominent pro-gun control group, told The Hill, “The moment isn’t ending.”
Watts added: “I think the gloves are off on our side. And [I’m] also hearing from so many Republican women who are becoming single issue voters. They are watching lawmakers say their kids are collateral damage and they’re not having it.”
There is a strong case to be made that legislators across the country are out of step with public opinion on the issue.
An Economist/YouGov poll this week found an overwhelming 82 percent of Americans favoring universal background checks, 74 percent backing so-called “red flag” laws, and 63 percent — including 42 percent of Republicans — even in favor of an assault weapons ban.
But that doesn’t come anywhere close to guaranteeing action either in Tennessee or at the federal level.
In Washington, there was some surprise that a modest gun safety measure passed Congress last June.
But Republicans on Capitol Hill don’t seem enthused about going any further than that.
Expulsions are rare — but they may not stay that way
Thursday’s expulsions were only the fourth time since the Civil War that such a step had been taken in the Nashville statehouse, according to The Tennessean.
The two other most recent examples were in 2016, when a Republican member was expelled over allegations of misconduct with women, and back in 1980 when another Republican was booted over a bribe.
The Tennessee state Senate did, however, vote to expel a Democratic member last year after her conviction for wire fraud.
Thursday reportedly marked the first time in the state’s history that lawmakers had been expelled simply for violating rules of decorum.
The question is whether this week’s events will set a precedent for similar expulsions in the near-future across the country — or whether lawmakers, looking at the furor in Nashville, will balk at taking similar steps in their states.
The expelled lawmakers will likely be back
It is highly improbable that the expulsions will end the political careers of Jones or Pearson.
Both men are vowing to fight on, and their political profiles have risen exponentially. On Friday alone, they did numerous television interviews.
The rules around expulsions in Tennessee are also idiosyncratic. A special election is called — but there is nothing barring the expelled lawmaker from running again. Moreover, it is possible for local authorities to appoint the expelled person as an interim member until that election takes place.
On Friday, NBC News reported that a majority of members of the Nashville Metropolitan Council would vote to reinstate Jones to his seat. Pearson, who represents a Memphis-area district, could get similar treatment.
One way or another, Jones and Pearson have emerged stronger than they were before any of this happened.