The Memo: Bolton furor raises stakes for GOP senators

New revelations from former national security adviser John Bolton hold the potential to upend President Trump’s Senate trial — but only if some vital GOP members yield to Democratic demands that Bolton testify.

That is far from certain, especially with Trump loyalists suggesting there will be a steep price to pay for any Republicans who stop toeing the president’s line.

The new twist in the trial was sparked by a New York Times report on Sunday evening that included details from Bolton’s forthcoming memoir about his time in the Trump administration.

The book is said to include an assertion that Trump had made congressionally mandated aid to Ukraine contingent upon the government in Kyiv helping with investigations into the former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden.

This cuts directly against Trump’s often-repeated defense that there was no “quid pro quo” in his dealings with Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelensky. Trump has denied Bolton’s account.

Given the apparent importance of the new information, the debate about whether to have Bolton testify is entering deeper waters.

Republicans have been resistant to the idea of calling new witnesses. They worry doing so will hold peril for Trump, they are loath to concede a key Democratic demand and they are reluctant to prolong the trial.

But there are tensions within the Republican conference, in part because the political calculus is different for senators in deep-red territory and those who are seeking reelection in competitive states.

To force the witness issue, four Republican senators would need to join a united block of all 47 Democratic senators. The most likely GOP aisle-crossers are widely seen as Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Mitt Romney (Utah), with Sens. Cory Gardner (Colo.) and Lamar Alexander (Tenn.) as additional possibilities.

The Bolton revelations ramp up the pressure on those senators. Two of them, Romney and Collins, suggested on Monday they may be more likely to support the calling of witnesses — though skeptics noted that the duo left themselves some wiggle room.

Romney has implied that he would support calling Bolton but has not unequivocally declared he will vote to do so. On Monday, he said the new details made it “increasingly likely that other Republicans will join those of us who think we should hear from John Bolton.”

Collins, who has not shown her hand about how she would vote, said that the report about Bolton’s book “strengthens the case for witnesses and [has] prompted a number of conversations among my colleagues.”

Murkowski, for her part, tweeted somewhat opaquely.

The Alaska senator reiterated that she was “curious” about what Bolton would have to say, but went on: “There is an appropriate time for us to evaluate whether we need additional information —that time is almost here.”

Murkowski and Collins have demonstrated a willingness to break from the Trump administration on occasion in the past — both voted against the attempt to repeal the Obama-era Affordable Care Act in 2017 — while Romney has a complicated relationship with the president.

Collins, who is seeking reelection this year in a state where Democrat Hillary Clinton won the plurality of voters in 2016, will be mindful that public opinion appears strongly supportive of the calling of public witnesses. This is also a germane concern for Gardner, who is in a similar position in Colorado.

An ABC News-Washington Post poll conducted in recent days indicated that 65 percent of registered voters — including 45 percent of Republicans — were in favor of the Senate calling new witnesses.

There are complications aplenty, however.

Firstly, the polling numbers may be a byproduct of a desire on the part of some conservatives to hear testimony that they believe would help Trump — specifically from Joe or Hunter Biden.

This idea of a “witness swap” — where Democrats would get to hear sought-after testimony from Bolton or acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney in exchange for Republicans being allowed to compel testimony from the Bidens — has surfaced periodically.

On Monday, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) reinvigorated the idea, tweeting: “If there is a desire and decision by the Senate to call Democratic witnesses, then at a minimum the Senate should allow President @RealDonaldTrump to call all relevant witnesses he has requested.”

The divisions within the Republican conference that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has sought to minimize are becoming increasingly evident.

On Monday, after Romney’s comments, Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) tweeted that Romney was seeking to “appease the left” by bringing forth witnesses who would “slander” Trump.

Another Trump ally, Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), also issued a warning to potential Republican defectors, albeit in more tempered language.

Meadows told Norah O’Donnell of CBS News that he believed there would be consequences for those who bucked Trump’s line. “There are always political repercussions for every vote you take,” he said.

Meanwhile, the divisions and the rhetoric in Trump World beyond Capitol Hill are growing more emphatic by the day.

Radio talk-show host Rush Limbaugh accused Bolton of “disloyalty” on Monday. The president’s personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani, referred to the former national security adviser as “Backstabber Bolton” in a text to a Daily Beast reporter.

With the air thick with accusations, the temperature is rising on the GOP senators who are potential swing votes.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage, primarily focused on Donald Trump’s presidency.