Democrats are increasingly worried that Vice President Harris is headed for defeat, even as election analysts warn there’s too much uncertainty to trust polling that shows former President Trump is the slight favorite to win the Electoral College.
The latest forecast from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ gives Trump a 52 percent chance of winning, as recent battleground polls have moved slightly in Trump’s favor over the past few weeks.
The Hill’s Amie Parnes reports on how Democrats fear the race is slipping away from Harris:
“Cracks in the ‘blue wall’ of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are starting to show…Harris has been losing ground to Trump in polls, particularly in Wisconsin. In Michigan, doubts among Arab American voters are worrying Democrats. None of this is making Democrats feel better about an Election Day that is now less than two weeks away.”
Those fears extend to the Senate, where The Hill’s Al Weaver reports that things have gone from bad to worse for Democrats:
“The path to 51 seats was always going to be a long shot for Democrats…But now Democrats are also dealing with Republican candidates in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin quickly closing the gap.”
Should Democrats be hitting the panic button?
Election forecaster Nate Silver wrote for The New York Times on Wednesday that his gut tells him that Trump will win — even as is his own forecast shows a 50-50 outcome.
“My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats. But I don’t think you should put any value whatsoever on anyone’s gut — including mine…you should be open to the possibility that those forecasts are wrong, and that could be the case equally in the direction of Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris.”
Democrats are fretting because the polls are so close and Trump’s support has been undercounted in public surveys in 2016 and 2020.
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The 2020 polling miss was the worst in decades.
- Biden entered Election Day with a 9 point national lead and big leads in every battleground. He ended up winning the national vote by about 4.5 points, and he only won the Electoral College by about 40,000 votes spread across three states.
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That year, as in 2016, the polls undercounted Trump’s support among non-college educated white voters.
The polls are much tighter this time around, but pollsters say they’ve adjusted for Trump’s support among non-college educated white voters.
However, NBC’s Steve Kornacki makes a compelling case that there’s a chance the polls could be underestimating Harris’s support, as an ongoing political realignment makes it difficult to forecast turnout among some demographic groups.
- Biden topped Trump by 81 points among Black voters in 2020. Harris is only up by 64 points in 2024.
- Biden won Latinos by 30 points in 2020. Harris is only ahead by 10 points in 2024.
Many expect Trump to build on his support among Blacks and Latinos this time around, but if Harris slightly outperforms where she’s currently at in the polls, it could tip the outcome in her favor.
Scott Tranter, the data science director for Decision Desk HQ, told the Wall Street Journal he expects a polling error in one direction – but he has no idea which way that will be.
“It’s like a roulette wheel,” Tranter said. “Just because it showed up red the last two times doesn’t mean it’s going to show up red this time.”
Update: More than 24.5 million people have already voted, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab. Voting is surging in key swing-states, such as Wisconsin, where nearly half a million people have voted since polls opened on Tuesday, surpassing 2020 early-voting turnout.
💡 Perspectives:
The Hill: Harris can’t make the case for herself because there isn’t one.
The Guardian: To win, Harris should talk less about Trump.
Intelligencer: What Harris needs to do to win over Black men.
The Wall Street Journal: Why are Democrats losing Black voters?
Intelligencer: 2024 election could hinge on tiny shifts in electorate.
The Hill: How Republicans can win Gen Z voters.
The Liberal Patriot: Don’t lose your mind over the election results.
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