Morning Report — Will October flip the September election script?

In today’s issue:

• Will deadlock break in the Trump-Harris race?
• Trump’s ground game worries state GOP operatives
• Biden: Israel shouldn’t strike Iran’s nuclear sites
• Take the Morning Report Quiz!

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Vice President Harris, in the final few weeks of her presidential bid, has been pressed by events to juggle dual roles in governance and politics amid domestic and international crises.

On the one hand, hurricane recovery in multiple swing states inserted Harris into news coverage with the aura of executive say-so and empathy for communities rocked by flooding, loss of life and cataclysmic property destruction. 

The vice president visited Augusta, Ga., on Wednesday to view the situation for herself. She announced the federal government would cover 100 percent of the local government’s cleanup costs for debris removal and emergency protective measures for three months. 

She plans to visit affected areas of North Carolina soon, and President Biden will be in Georgia today.

At the same time, the escalating attacks among Israel, Lebanon and Iran this week nudged Harris to restate strong U.S. support for Israel at a time when voter criticism of Israel’s aggression in Gaza appears to have eroded her support in Michigan and other locations where pro-Palestinian sympathies run high. A potentially costly strike by longshoremen also potentially strains two pillars of her base: organized labor and inflation-sensitive consumers. Biden has said he won’t intervene in the strike.

The Hill: Trump leads Harris among likely Arab American voters, according to a new poll sponsored by the Arab American Institute.

In a deadlocked contest, every minute and every early ballot will matter during the next 33 days. Former President Trump and running mate Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) tell voters the world is spinning out of control because of what they describe as weak policies they brand with Harris’s name.

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BOB’S SMART TAKE:

September was a great month for Democrats, but the script could flip in October.

Last month, Harris won the debate against Trump and subsequently grabbed the lead in most battleground states. Money poured into her campaign as Democratic donors woke from their slumber after Biden stepped aside. There was also encouraging news on inflation and the administration’s crackdown at the border. 

October has brought a different vibe. Vance bested Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) in their debate this week as the conflict in the Middle East intensified. An East Coast ports strike threatens to significantly affect global supply chains and could lead to higher gas prices. 

Meanwhile, the Biden-Harris administration is trying to help victims recover from the tragic and devastating damage left by Hurricane Helene. 

Politics is fickle, and there are sure to be more twists and turns down the homestretch of the election. Fasten your seat belts. 

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Amid his many critiques of Harris, Trump has mostly sidestepped her fitness to serve as commander in chief and leader of allied nations. But Middle East unrest could change that. The former president, whose themes wander during campaign and fundraising events, often focuses on the economy and trade, plus border security and crime.

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3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY: 

▪ Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election was a “private scheme” by a candidate, not an official presidential act, Justice Department special counsel Jack Smith said in a detailed motion unsealed by a judge Wednesday. Trump called the motion “pure election interference” during a Wednesday interview with NewsNation.

▪ Many homeowners do not carry enough insurance to cover today’s costs of repairs after hurricane or fire damage. Here’s what to consider, according to experts.

▪ Why OpenAI is becoming a for-profit business.

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LEADING THE DAY

LOCAL CASH: Some battleground-state Republicans said they’re worried they see little evidence of the Trump campaign’s ground game — and fear it could cost the former president the election. Swing-state GOP operatives have said there’s little sign of the teams tasked with knocking on doors and turning out infrequent voters, raising concerns about Trump’s reliance on outside groups for an important part of his campaign operations.

In competitive states, Trump’s campaign has marshaled volunteer door-knockers and phone-callers it calls “Trump Force 47,” a campaign official told Politico. But battleground operatives cast doubt on whether the program is actually working.

“It’s almost like a timeshare scheme. You have to go in and do the training, and you get the swag and the hat and the yard sign. That’s what you have to do to go get it,” one operative said. “It doesn’t seem like people are really being activated, and the campaign’s not very forthcoming on whether they’ve been activated.”

The Democratic National Committee, meanwhile, announced it would be giving nearly $2.5 million in total grants to more than 30 state parties in an effort to ramp up organizing efforts as Election Day nears.

DEMOCRATS ARE SEEING SIGNS of growing momentum in the Texas Senate race between Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and Colin Allred (D), fueling the party’s hopes that this year could be the breakthrough they’ve been seeking for multiple cycles. While Cruz remains a favorite to win — and Allred’s campaign has lacked the grassroots buzz of former Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s (D) 2018 challenge of Cruz — the race’s margins are shrinking. One recent sign of that: The Cook Political Report this week shifted the race toward Democrats, into “lean Republican” territory.

Even if Cruz wins, the fact that he is having to work for it — and that Senate Democrats are spending to replace him — shows the extent to which Democrats’ hopes of keeping the upper chamber’s majority run through Texas.

The Wall Street Journal: Republicans deploy cash to crack Democrats’ blue wall in the Senate.

A 2028 BOOST: Vance’s strong debate performance is giving him a shot in the arm to become a leading 2028 presidential contender no matter what happens in November. The overall importance of vice presidential debates has widely been considered negligible, but the impact of Tuesday’s debate could be felt more acutely down the line as Vance received wide plaudits on the right for his performance.

A reporter asked Vance at a campaign appearance in Auburn Hills, Mich., about why he did not answer a question on the debate stage about whether he accepted that Trump lost the 2020 election. He did not directly answer the question, saying “the media is obsessed with talking about the election of four years ago.” 

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2024 ELECTION ROUNDUP:

Interviews and town halls: A “60 Minutes” candidate hour on Monday will feature only Harris after Trump, who previously agreed to be on the show, pulled out on Wednesday. Both candidates are still scheduled for separate town halls hosted by Univision, which will be broadcast with Spanish translation at a time when each candidate is working to woo Latino voters. Trump, interviewed in Miami, will appear Tuesday. Harris, interviewed in Las Vegas, will appear Oct. 10. Undecided Hispanic voters will pose questions to each candidate.

Campaign cash: Trump’s campaign finance team said it collected $160 million in donations in September.

Climate: Hurricane Helene’s devastation is shining a spotlight on the skepticism of well-established climate science from Trump and Vance.

North Carolina: The western part of the state was hailed as a “climate haven.” Hurricane Helene shows it’s not so simple. The hurricane’s destruction creates a massive challenge for election officials in a battleground state critical to the outcome of the presidential race.

Hunting in “the swamp”: The conservative Heritage Foundation has filed thousands of public-information requests, clogging the pipeline at federal agencies in an apparent attempt to find employees a potential Trump administration would want to purge.

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WHERE AND WHEN

The House will convene a pro forma session Friday at 3:30 p.m. The Senate will hold a pro forma session Friday at 10 a.m.

The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 8 a.m. Biden will travel to Tallahassee, Fla., this morning in order to survey Perry, Fla., during a midday aerial tour. He will travel to Valdosta, Ga., this afternoon to meet with officials and discuss federal hurricane assistance. He’ll return to the White House.

Candidate schedules this week: Harris will campaign in the Fox Valley area of Wisconsin this afternoon. The vice president will campaign Friday in Detroit and Flint, Mich. Trump will hold a town hall Friday at 7 p.m. in Fayetteville, N.C. Vance will campaign Friday in Lindale, Ga., at 1 p.m. The former president will return Saturday at 5 p.m. to Butler, Pa., the site of a gunman’s assassination attempt July 13. 

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ZOOM IN

Federal storm response: Biden announced Wednesday he is sending up to 1,000 troops to help hurricane-damaged states. Appearing Wednesday with North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) in the Tar Heel State, the president estimated the cumulative costs of the massive storm will be in the billions of dollars. “Congress has an obligation” to ensure states have the necessary resources, he added. “Nobody can deny the impact of the climate crisis anymore, at least I hope they don’t. They must be brain-dead if they do,” Biden said. “Storms like Helene are getting stronger and stronger.”

Striking port workers: The White House sided with the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) in a dockworker strike that began this week and impacts ports from Texas to Maine. ILA and maritime employers are not engaged in wage talks, a worrisome sign. Harris separately offered her backing to striking union members.

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ELSEWHERE

ISRAELI FORCES AND HEZBOLLAH fought at close range in southern Lebanon on Wednesday, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu weighed a military response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel that has further set the region on edge. Iran’s Tuesday missiles had mostly been intercepted by air defenses and with the help of the U.S. and other allies. Israel struck a health authority building close to the heart of Beirut overnight into Thursday, killing at least six people and injuring several others.

Biden said Wednesday that he does not support Israel carrying out strikes on Iranian nuclear sites as the U.S. and its allies mull additional sanctions against Tehran. “All seven of us agree that they have a right to respond, but they should respond proportionally,” Biden told reporters, referring to Group of Seven (G7) allies.

U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres told an emergency session of the Security Council that he condemned Iran’s attack on Israel. 

“As I did in relation to the Iranian attack in April — and as should have been obvious yesterday in the context of the condemnation I expressed — I again strongly condemn yesterday’s massive missile attack by Iran on Israel,” he said. “These attacks paradoxically do nothing to support the cause of the Palestinian people or reduce their suffering.”

The Washington Post: Eight Israeli soldiers were killed Wednesday in Lebanon, deaths that could shape the depth and scope of an Israeli ground offensive against Hezbollah.

ISRAEL’S OPERATION in Lebanon is exposing the failures of U.S. efforts to de-escalate the Middle East conflict, testing Biden’s support for Israel’s expanding military campaigns. Israel has increasingly been a source of stress for the Biden administration throughout the nearly year long conflict, and the incursion into Lebanon marks a historic act of defiance from Netanyahu and risks evolving into an intense regional conflict. 

Brian Katulis, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told The Hill that the Biden administration has not achieved many of its goals over the last year because “it’s been feckless and reactive to events” in the Middle East. 

“We don’t have a credible strategy that shapes dynamics,” he said. “And the real drivers are the ones who are the actors in the region, Israel, Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and we’re basically just reacting to the plays they’ve been executing and running.”

▪ Reuters: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to flee Lebanon days before he was killed in an Israeli strike and is now worried about Israeli infiltration of senior government ranks in Tehran.

▪ The Washington Post: Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday approved a new law that will exempt Russian defendants and suspects who have signed up to fight in the army from criminal liability.

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OPINION 

■ Vance is a dangerous, disciplined shape-shifter, by Ruth Marcus, columnist, The Washington Post.

■ The people fleeing climate disasters are going to transform the American south, by Abrahm Lustgarten, ProPublica and The New York Times.

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THE CLOSER 

Take Our Morning Report Quiz

And finally … It’s Thursday, which means it’s time for this week’s Morning Report Quiz! With eyes on a cliffhanger election finale, we’re eager for smart guesses about the political phenomenon known as the “October surprise.” 

Be sure to email your responses to asimendinger@digital-staging.thehill.com and kkarisch@digital-staging.thehill.com — please add “Quiz” to your subject line. Winners who submit correct answers will enjoy some richly deserved newsletter fame on Friday.

Which former candidate this week described an October surprise experience involving a false “Pizzagate” conspiracy theory that went viral close to Election Day?

1. Paul Ryan
2. Mitt Romney
3. Ralph Nader
4. Hillary Clinton

Republican nominee Ronald Reagan and advisers were accused of trying to thwart the possibility that then-President Carter would boost his reelection chances in October 1980 using what?

1. Get-out-the-vote plan
2. Campaign attack ads
3. Release of American hostages held by Iran
4. Plummeting gasoline pump prices

Days before the 2000 presidential election, a Democratic source in Maine confirmed to a reporter that GOP presidential nominee George W. Bush had been arrested for drunk driving in that state in 1976 at age 30. How did Bush react to the end-of-campaign-season scoop?

1. He denied it
2. He confirmed his DUI conviction
3. He ignored the 11th hour media reports
4. He claimed a Breathalyzer error and said charges subsequently had been dropped

A month before the 2016 election on the first Friday of October, a previously unaired video of then-celebrity Donald Trump obtained by a national newspaper showed him lewdly bragging about kissing and groping women. The video became known as the _______?

1. October surprise tape
2. Trump Tower tape
3. “Apprentice” tape
4. “Access Hollywood” tape

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