Majority in new poll says US is ‘likely’ to hit a recession within a year

A majority of respondents in a new poll said they expect the U.S. economy to enter a recession within the next year, despite a strong job market and steady consumer spending.

Sixty-five percent in the CNBC-SurveyMonkey online poll released Monday said they believed the economy was likely to begin retracting within 12 months, while 34 percent of respondents said it was unlikely the U.S. will hit a recession.

{mosads}The new online poll of 2,776 Americans, conducted Oct. 21–25, found sharp partisan divides among respondents’ opinions of the economy.

Democrats, who have largely been critical of President Trump’s economic agenda, were far more likely to say that they expected a recession. While 84 percent of Democratic respondents said a recession was likely, just 46 percent of Republicans said they expected one.

Independent voters also overwhelmingly expected the U.S. to hit a recession, with 72 percent saying one was likely before 2020. An economy or industry is considered to be in a recession after two consecutive quarters — or six straight months — of negative growth.

The U.S. economy has expanded for a record 125 consecutive months since July 2009, and analysts expect that stretch to continue throughout the end of the year. Consumer spending and unemployment — currently at 3.6 percent — have also remained strong, even amid an industrial recession, fading business investment and slowing economic growth. 

“I view the U.S. economy as in pretty good shape right now,” Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren told Reuters on Monday, adding that the economy “looks like it is going to be growing around potential.”

But a severe economic downturn in Europe and Asia, coupled with the rising costs of Trump’s trade battles, poses risks to a stable U.S. economy ahead of the 2020 elections.

Trump is counting on a strong job market and ample consumer confidence to secure a second term. The president’s success depends on reassembling a coalition of GOP strongholds and industrial states, such as Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, that broke from Democrats to support Trump in 2016.

While 64 percent of respondents to the CNBC-SurveyMonkey poll said the 2020 presidential election “is mainly about” issues other than the economy, more Republicans (29 percent) and independents (27 percent) cited the economy as their top priority than any other issue. Democrats ranked health care (25 percent) and the environment (24 percent) slightly above jobs and the economy (17 percent).