On The Money: Trump to sign border deal, declare emergency to build wall | Senate passes funding bill, House to follow | Dems promise challenge to emergency declaration

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THE BIG DEAL—Trump to sign border deal, declare national emergency: President Trump will declare a national emergency to fund his demand to build a border wall, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) announced on the Senate floor Thursday.

“I had an opportunity to speak with President Trump and he, I would say to all my colleagues, has indicated he’s prepared to sign the bill. He also [will] be issuing a national emergency declaration at the same time. I indicated I’m going to support the national emergency declaration,” McConnell announced shortly after 3 p.m. Thursday.

The White House affirmed Trump would sign the package minutes later in an emailed statement from press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders.

“President Trump will sign the government funding bill, and as he has stated before, he will also take other executive action – including a national emergency – to ensure we stop the national security and humanitarian crisis at the border,” Sanders said.

The Senate passed the bill shortly after McConnell’s announcement by an 83-16 vote following several hours of drama.

• There were rising doubts that Trump would actually sign the deal, which funds a quarter of the government that is poised to run out of funding at midnight on Friday.

• McConnell, who reportedly advised Trump not to declare a national emergency, said he will support the president’s action.

• “I think he ought to feel free to use whatever tools he can legally use to enhance his effort to secure the border, so no I would not be troubled by that,” McConnell told reporters.

GOP split on emergency declaration while Dems promise legal action: While McConnell came around to supporting the emergency maneuver after previously opposing it, his conference has mixed feelings about the decision.

• Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), who spoke to Trump on Wednesday evening, said he supports the national emergency action.

• Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said “I’ve expressed my concern about declaring an emergency just in terms of its precedential impacts but also the practical difficulties.”

• Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said the declaration “will be challenged in court and is of dubious constitutionality,” and that “it undermines the role of Congress and the appropriations process and it’s just not good policy.”

• Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman James Inhofe (R-Okla.) said Trump could build more support for a national emergency declaration if he releases a letter assuring lawmakers that money will not be taken from military construction projects.

Democrats seized on the decision and said it would almost certainly be challenged in court.

• “There is word the president will declare a national emergency. I hope he won’t. That would be a very wrong thing to do,” said Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.)

• House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) also warned Republicans that if Trump declares a national emergency to build a border wall that the next Democratic president could do the same to address gun violence.

• Pelosi declined to say Thursday if Democrats would launch a legal challenge to Trump’s coming emergency declaration, though House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) suggested the previous day that Democrats would bring such a challenge.

What comes next: The House is expected to clear the bill later tonight and send it to Trump, who has until the end of Friday to sign it before 25 percent of the federal government shuts down.

LEADING THE DAY

US retail sales suffer steepest drop in nine years: U.S. retail sales in December suffered their worst decline in nine years, according to Commerce Department data released Thursday, a potential red flag for economic growth.

Advance estimates of December 2018 retail and food services sales, a major driver of the U.S. economy, fell 1.2 percent from the previous month, to $505.8 billion, according to the Census Bureau.

The drop is the steepest plunge in retails sales since August 2009, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of Commerce Department data.

Consumer spending is responsible for roughly 70 percent of U.S. growth and considered a key indicator of future economic conditions. The unexpected December plunge is the latest in a series of signs that growth is starting to slow after gradually accelerating since 2017. I’ve got more on the data here.

Push for paid family leave heats up ahead of 2020: The issue of paid family leave is receiving renewed attention from the White House and lawmakers in both parties, putting it in the spotlight ahead of the 2020 election.

Ivanka Trump, the president’s daughter and senior adviser, met with a group of Republican senators on Wednesday to discuss ways to push the issue forward. And Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), who is running for president, reintroduced her legislation Tuesday to create a federal paid family and medical leave program.

Republicans and Democrats have different thoughts about how to approach paid family leave, and legislation on the issue is unlikely to be enacted in the immediate future. But the latest flurry of activity is putting new momentum behind the complicated issue.

The Hill’s Naomi Jagoda tells us what to know about the debate.

GOOD TO KNOW

• A government watchdog reported this week that the Department of Education did not properly hold student loan providers accountable to rules and regulations.
  

• The IRS released data on Thursday showing that the average refund size for the first 12 days of this year’s tax-filing season was smaller than it was during a similar period last year.

• President Trump is reportedly mulling a 60-day extension for the deadline to impose higher tariffs on Chinese imports, Bloomberg News reported late Wednesday.

• Back pay for federal contractors impacted by the recent partial government shutdown did not make it into the funding deal, a source told The Hill.

• Amazon will not pay any federal income taxes for the second year in a row, according to a report released Wednesday.

ODDS AND ENDS

• The Federal Trade Commission is reportedly pushing for a record multibillion-dollar fine against Facebook over privacy violations following an investigation into the company’s handling of the Cambridge Analytica scandal.

• Amazon on Thursday announced that it has canceled plans to open its second headquarters, dubbed “HQ2,” in New York City following aggressive pushback from some local lawmakers and activists.