On The Money: Slowing job growth raises 2020 stakes for Trump | Economy adds 130k jobs in lackluster August | Trump knocks media after jobs report

by Sylvan Lane - 09/06/19 5:24 PM ET

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THE BIG DEAL–Slowing job growth raises 2020 stakes for Trump: An underwhelming August jobs report is adding to fears of an economic slowdown, raising the stakes for President Trump’s reelection bid.

{mosads}The U.S. added roughly 130,000 jobs in August, according to federal data released Friday, undershooting economists’ expectations as the labor market continues to slow.

The resilient job market has been one of Trump’s top selling points as he attempts to win re-election on the strength of the U.S. economy. But the disappointing August jobs report threatens to undercut Trump’s message ahead of a critical stretch for the economy.

The report comes as the Trump administration and China try to revive trade talks after more than a year of tit-for-tat tariffs between the world’s two largest economies.

With just 14 months until the 2020 election, Trump faces a narrowing window to strike a truce with China that could steer the U.S. away from the edge of a recession.

Failure to do so could derail not only the U.S. economy, but Trump’s shot at another White House term.

“Today’s employment data, coupled with earlier revisions to 2018, suggest that we have hit a tipping point,” wrote Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, in a Friday research note.

I explain why here.

Four main points:

The private sector added just 96,000 of the 130,000 jobs gained in August, and 25,000 of the new workers added last month were short-term hires to conduct the 2020 census.

That drags down the total number of jobs added in August to roughly 100,000, well below the gain of 195,000 private sector hires projected Thursday by the ADP Research Institute.

Job growth in July was also revised lower by 5,000 jobs to a gain of 159,000 workers, and June’s gain of 193,000 jobs was cut to 178,000 new workers.

The revisions drove the average monthly jobs gain in 2019 down to 158,000, well below the 223,000 average monthly gain in 2018.

The counter:

While the U.S. faces higher odds of a recession, the country still enjoys a strong labor market, steady consumer spending, and solid wage growth. Roughly 571,000 people joined the workforce in August, pushing the labor force participation rate higher and keeping unemployment steady at 3.7 percent.

“The stories in the paper have generated a psychology that is vastly worse than the reality,” National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow told reporters at the White House on Friday.

Trump responds by bashing the press: We’ve written quite a bit over the past few months about how Trump’s fate in 2020 is largely tied to the state of the economy.

Trump’s primary response to economic adversity has been blaming the media and the Federal Reserve, which he did Friday before and after the jobs report was released.

“The Economy is great. The only thing adding to ‘uncertainty’ is the Fake News!” Trump tweeted Friday.

Trump has also stepped up his attacks on the Fed, ripping the central bank for not matching the negative interest rates of European countries, even as the U.S. economy grows.

“The Fed should lower rates. They were WAY too early to raise, and Way too late to cut — and big dose quantitative tightening didn’t exactly help either,” Trump tweeted Friday.

“Where did I find this guy Jerome? Oh well, you can’t win them all!” Trump added, referring to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, whom the president nominated to lead the central bank in 2017.

ON TAP NEXT WEEK

Tuesday:

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson, and Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Mark Calabria testify before the Senate Banking Committee on the Trump administration’s housing finance reform plan, 10 a.m.

The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing on student loans and student loan servicing, 10 a.m.

Wednesday:

A House Financial Services subcommittee holds a hearing on private market exemptions and initial public offerings, 10 a.m.

A House Financial Services subcommittee holds a hearing on the macroeconomic impacts of climate change, 2 p.m.

Thursday:

The House Judiciary Committee holds a hearing entitled “Online Platforms and Market Power, Part 3: The Role of Data and Privacy in Competition,” 9 a.m.

The House Financial Services Committee Task Force on Artificial Intelligence holds a hearing on data security in the financial services industry, 9:30 a.m.

The Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing entitled “Developments in Global Insurance Regulatory and Supervisory Forums,” 10 a.m.

GOOD TO KNOW

The Treasury Department and IRS on Friday issued proposed rules to reduce donor disclosure requirements for certain tax-exempt groups after a federal judge struck down guidance the agencies had previously released.

Investigators with the House Financial Services Committee have reportedly found possible failures by Deutsche Bank in its money laundering controls concerning the bank’s dealings with Russian oligarchs, according to Reuters.

A coalition of eight attorneys general has launched an investigation into Facebook over potential antitrust violations, New York Attorney General Letitia James announced Friday.

ODDS AND ENDS

Newly released data shows that attendance at SoulCycle classes has continued to drop a month after the exercise chain wandered into a political firestorm.

Apple says that the iPhone vulnerabilities disclosed by Google last week were targeted at the Uighur ethnic group, an oppressed minority in China, and were not as widespread as the internet search giant had claimed.

RECAP THE WEEK WITH ON THE MONEY: