Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s sudden decision to suspend his campaign and support former President Trump is raising questions about whether he could actually tip the scales in key battleground states.
Some Republicans say Kennedy’s move will help the GOP attract more votes in places where Trump is slightly behind Vice President Harris.
Harris supporters don’t anticipate Kennedy giving Trump much of an advantage, but they aren’t stopping their counteroffensive against him, either.
Kennedy’s third-party allies, meanwhile, are proud to pivot to Team MAGA and are optimistic that their influence will grow as a result.
“Trump gonna get some momentum after this,” said one Kennedy source briefed on the conversations leading up to the decision last Friday. “Bobby has a dedicated and mobilized grassroots army. I’m genuinely excited.”
Kennedy’s choice to end his campaign in states where polls showed him hurting Trump came after the two campaigns reached what they’re framing as a mutually beneficial agreement. While Kennedy encouraged his supporters to vote for him where he’s still on the ballot, his choice to remove his name from battlegrounds means he’s no longer looking to win the election.
In what essentially amounted to a concession speech, Kennedy announced during an appearance in Phoenix, Ariz., last Friday that he was removing himself from states where he was considered a “spoiler.”
“I no longer believe that I have a realistic path to electoral victory,” he said.
A second Kennedy source directly familiar with his campaign strategy said he was planning to “bail on all the swing states” prior to him doing it. His goal was now to help Trump, whom he had talked to multiple times in recent months.
Kennedy even predicted other Democrats will take a similar step to support Trump against Harris. “I think President Trump will make a series of announcements with other Democrats who are joining his campaign,” Kennedy said in an appearance on “Fox News Sunday.”
His comments come after several Republicans spoke at the Democrats’ convention last week, urging others in the GOP to buck their party and vote against Trump.
Republicans are happy to have Kennedy on their side as a surrogate, however flawed he might be. Looking past his policies — which run the gamut from fervent environmentalism against the GOP’s oil platform to antivax conspiracy theories — Republicans hope he can help Trump consolidate some support.
“Could it impact the race? Yes, absolutely,” said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean. “Every vote counts in this election.”
In the early days of his switch to an independent, Democrats thought of Kennedy as more worrisome for President Biden.
But the polling has shown different possible outcomes at different points in the cycle, including that he drags down the former Republican president the most. As of late July, Trump was leading by 4 points when up against Biden and Kennedy, according to averages from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill, with Kennedy drawing in nearly 9 percent support.
With Harris now as the Democratic nominee, she’s on top by more than 5 points in a three-way race, with Kennedy at just under 3 percent support.
In head-to-head polling, the averages show Harris up by 4 points nationally, and she boasts a similarly narrow edge in key swing states. Polling also suggests conservatives are more likely to see Kennedy favorably.
“What if 1 or 2 percent of his support actually voted for Trump? That would make a huge difference and it really depends on the battleground states,” Bonjean added.
Kennedy’s decision to hold his speech in Arizona was a carefully considered one, the source close to him said, because it allowed for coordination with Trump’s event later in the evening. Republican strategist Karl Rove predicted last week that beyond Arizona, Kennedy’s embrace of Trump could also be helpful in Georgia, citing the narrow margin of Biden’s victory last cycle.
One Republican strategist aligned with Trump argued Kennedy’s national polling was less significant than his support in the Sunbelt and Pennsylvania. If Kennedy’s supporters back Trump in those states, the strategist said, it could help give Trump what he needs to garner 270 electoral votes. “I think it’s going to make a huge difference,” the strategist speculated.
Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio said in a memo last week that the endorsement is “good news” despite “the Harris folks already trying to spin that it won’t impact the race.” He pointed to internal polling data showing the Kennedy vote breaking for Trump in seven battlegrounds.
But others in the GOP are still hedging.
“It’s a momentum-Trump story for the next 48 hours, let’s say,” said Republican strategist Brian Seitchik.
“But Kennedy’s number has been on decline for months,” he said. “It’s good for today, but I’m not sure it has much impact on tomorrow.”
Democrats have spent almost a year creating an attack strategy that links Kennedy and Trump. But their confirmation of that connection, which is now playing out with joint rallies and more media appearances, is not necessarily relieving.
Instead, they’re now messaging about why their alliance is bad. Democratic operatives are sending around reports that Kennedy has sought an administration post in exchange for his endorsement and are highlighting internal issues with his campaign. The Hill reported last week that factions of Kennedy’s and Trump’s respective circles, including Republican Roger Stone, see Kennedy as a good fit for the CIA or potentially the Food and Drug Administration or Department of Health and Human Services. No decisions have been made.
Looking to keep the national attention on their party, Democrats are dismissing Kennedy’s latest actions as not out of the ordinary for a candidate who has changed political identities many times. In 2018, for example, Kennedy penned a scathing op-ed of Trump in Newsweek. “He is, by every measure, the most loathed, feared and disdained leader alive,” Kennedy wrote. “Why would any nation opt for a system that could yield the rise to ultimate power of a belligerent and incurious man.”
Democrats widely view this most recent loyalty switch as on brand.
“I don’t see him having any impact electorally on this,” Democratic campaign strategist Michael Ceraso said of Kennedy, though he stressed that the party shouldn’t take any voter for granted.
Some Kennedy supporters could see another Trump term as “problematic” enough to grit their teeth and vote for Harris, he argued, while “hardcore” supporters might write in Kennedy in states where it doesn’t appear as an option.
On the bright side, Ceraso added, Kennedy’s endorsement may be “one of Trump’s last opportunities to create any type of buzz” before Nov. 5.
Brett Samuels contributed.