On The Money: Judge sides with NY officials in Trump tax return lawsuit | Majority in new poll says US is ‘likely’ to hit a recession within a year | Falling investment revives attacks against Trump’s tax cuts

Happy Monday and Veterans Day and welcome back to On The Money, where we’re thankful for the service of millions of brave men and women who’ve served our country in the armed forces. I’m Sylvan Lane, and here’s your nightly guide to everything affecting your bills, bank account and bottom line.

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THE BIG DEAL—Judge sides with NY officials in Trump tax return lawsuit: A federal judge on Monday dismissed two officials from President Trump’s lawsuit against them over his state tax returns.

• New York enacted a law in July that allows Congress’s tax committees to request public officials’ state tax returns from the state’s department of taxation and finance.

• Shortly after the New York law was enacted, Trump filed a lawsuit in his personal capacity in an effort to prevent House Democrats from obtaining his state returns. The amended version of the lawsuit named New York officials among several Democratic representatives and congressional aides.

Judge Carl Nichols, a Trump appointee in federal district court in Washington, ruled that the D.C.-based court doesn’t have jurisdiction over the New York officials: Attorney General Letitia James and state tax official Michael Schmidt, dismissing Trump’s suit against the two.

“Mr. Trump bears the burden of establishing personal jurisdiction, but his allegations do not establish that the District of Columbia’s long-arm statute is satisfied here with respect to either Defendant,” Nichols wrote.

He added that Trump could renew his claims against the New York officials if future events trigger the D.C. statute, or he can sue the New York officials in their home state.

On tap tomorrow

• The House Rules Committee holds a hearing on the Export Finance Agency Act of 2019, a bill to fund and reform the Export-Import Bank, 5 p.m.

The Hill is hitting the road on Monday, November 18th to host Building the Dream: Minneapolis. Our editors will be sitting down with Mayor Jacob Frey, state Rep. Kurt Daudt (R), and Minneapolis City Council’s Lisa Bender to discuss local and national housing inequities and Minneapolis’ ambitious 2040 plan. RSVP today! 

LEADING THE DAY

Majority in new poll says US is ‘likely’ to hit a recession within a year: Most respondents in a new poll said they expect the U.S. economy to enter a recession within the next year, despite a strong job market and steady consumer spending.

Sixty-five percent in the CNBC-SurveyMonkey online poll released Monday said they believed the economy was likely to begin retracting within 12 months, while 34 percent of respondents said it was unlikely the U.S. will hit a recession. I break down the survey here. 

The background: 

• The U.S. economy has expanded for a record 125 consecutive months since July 2009, and analysts expect that stretch to continue throughout the end of the year. 

• Consumer spending and unemployment — currently at 3.6 percent — have also remained strong, even amid an industrial recession, fading business investment and slowing economic growth.

• But a severe economic downturn in Europe and Asia, coupled with the rising costs of Trump’s trade battles, poses risks to a stable U.S. economy ahead of the 2020 elections. 

What Americans are expecting:  The new online poll of 2,776 Americans, conducted Oct. 21–25, found sharp partisan divides among respondents’ opinions of the economy.

• Democrats, who have largely been critical of President Trump’s economic agenda, were far more likely to say that they expected a recession. While 84 percent of Democratic respondents said a recession was likely, just 46 percent of Republicans agreed.

• Independent voters also overwhelmingly expected the U.S. to hit a recession, with 72 percent saying one was likely before 2020. An economy or industry is considered to be in a recession after two consecutive quarters — or six straight months — of negative growth. 

The political consequences: Trump is counting on a strong job market and ample consumer confidence to secure a second term. The president’s success depends on reassembling a coalition of GOP strongholds and industrial states, such as Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, that broke from Democrats to support Trump in 2016.

• While 64 percent of respondents to the CNBC-SurveyMonkey poll said the 2020 presidential election “is mainly about” issues other than the economy, more Republicans, at 29 percent, and independents, 27 percent, cited the economy as their top priority than any other issue. 

• Democrats ranked health care, at 25 percent, and the environment, 24 percent, slightly above jobs and the economy, at 17 percent.

Falling investment revives attacks against Trump’s tax cuts: The GOP tax law passed in 2017 was supposed to super charge the economy, but the lack of a major impact is spurring critics to renew their attacks against the signature measure from President Trump.

Republicans said the tax law would help the economy through several avenues, including by sending business investment soaring. But just 15 months after it took effect, business investment has actually been contracting, falling 1 percent and 3 percent in the past two quarters.

Republicans who supported the tax law are blaming Trump’s trade war with China as the reason why it failed to have the intended impact.

Critics, however, say it reflects a broader misjudgment about how the tax law was structured. The Hill’s Niv Elis tells us why.

GOOD TO KNOW

• Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s “Medicare for All” funding plan has come under fire from her rivals for the Democratic nomination, but some in her own party say her framing of the issue could ease the concerns of centrist voters.

• The Wall Street Journal: “As Michael Bloomberg weighs another bid for political office, the financial-data and media company he co-founded is grappling with the implications of having to cover his campaign.”

• The American Prospect: “In Arizona, the [payday lending industry] has a bill that would block minimum wage increases, because when people don’t have money, they need short-term loans.”

ODDS AND ENDS

• Microsoft is heading to Capitol Hill to press lawmakers on legislation to protect recipients of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program during a crucial week in the fight over the Obama-era immigration program.